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  1. #1
    Player
    Silverbane's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Posts
    1,125
    Character
    Z'nnah Silverbane
    World
    Halicarnassus
    Main Class
    Sage Lv 100
    Quote Originally Posted by Jamillion View Post
    I'm convinced that SE just can't math lol
    I'm convinced that people without any formal training in statistics don't understand random processes.
    That's one of the most important conclusions I came to while studying statistics in my university days.
    (2)

  2. #2
    Player
    Jamillion's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Uldah
    Posts
    612
    Character
    Calypso Celeste
    World
    Lamia
    Main Class
    Archer Lv 60
    Quote Originally Posted by Silverbane View Post
    I'm convinced that people without any formal training in statistics don't understand random processes.
    That's one of the most important conclusions I came to while studying statistics in my university days.
    Well, that's a fine conjecture when working with true random chance. But when working with computing all "random" events are created from seed strings. Considering the massive amount of discrepancies that are regularly referenced I would not be surprised at all to hear that the seed strings SE uses are not as diverse as they could be leading to some of the things we've seen in game. Also, the average wait times are a prime example of SE not being able to math. Of course that's a completely lighthearted and joking comment.
    (4)

  3. #3
    Player
    Silverbane's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
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    1,125
    Character
    Z'nnah Silverbane
    World
    Halicarnassus
    Main Class
    Sage Lv 100
    Quote Originally Posted by Jamillion View Post
    Well, that's a fine conjecture when working with true random chance. But when working with computing all "random" events are created from seed strings.
    Not entirely true. Crypto-grade pseudo-random number generators accumulate entropy from various sources, such as one or more of thermal noise, mouse movements, various OS counters, network packet inter-arrival times, and the like, and use that entropy to generate their output after various processing steps. Getting enough entropy for high speed, high quality, cryptographic key generation was a challenge the security architecture R&D group I was part of a few years ago had to struggle with.

    There are plenty of PRNGs that don't just seed a linear feedback shift register and let it run. And there are plenty of PRNGs that are indistinguishable from a true RNG. Some are even provided with Windows.

    Every online game I've ever played, people complain that the random numbers generated aren't truly random. But no one actually collects data and does analysis to prove it. It's mainly people who have never studied statistics just remembering that time they missed four 99% attempts in a row, for example, which says nothing about the quality of the PRNG.
    (1)
    Last edited by Silverbane; 09-30-2015 at 11:49 AM.