What makes WHM special? Nothing anymore.

[Kosmos992k]

I haven't directly mocked anyone and I don't intend to.

I see, so you changed your mind since writing this I presume;

There's nothing left to do to these people except mock them a bit, then do what SE is already doing: ignore them.

It sure sounds like your stated intent is in fact to mock some people...

The simple fact is this: WHM is the vanilla healer. The thing that makes it unique is that it has the best healing throughput of all healers. It doesn't have a gimmick like a fairy or a deck of cards (that loves to f**k you over all the time) because it doesn't NEED either one. If someone can't outheal an AST on a WHM, the problem isn't with either class.

Asking that WHM be made "unique" may as well be asking that BRD be given a turret because it's the "vanilla" ranged physical DPS, or PLD get Darkside because it's the "vanilla" tank.

And furthermore, what reeks of hypocrisy in all of this is that, BEFORE this patch, WHMs weren't complaining up a storm about how "vanilla" their class was. So you felt unique as long as AST was sh*t, but now that they're not, "OH WE'RE NOT SPECIAL ANYMORE!!!!", despite still having THE BEST healing throughput for mana spent in the game?

The only buff WHM needs is to have super virus.

I don't even know where to begin. I think the best thing to do is ask you why you are so angry about this discussion, and why you are so desperate to not only put down those with opinions different to yours, but also literally insulting the entire White Mage job.

As for hypocrisy, your posts are full of that, but I would like to point out that long before patch 3.07, I had posted a topic about wand and shield use for WHM in the general discussion forum. So, cool your jets a bit before you say something ban-worthy.

[winsock]

This is vastly oversimplifying, in theory it sounds great, in reality this is not what happens. AST has 6 cards, if three of them are desirable and three undesirable. Then having an 87.5% chance to get a favorable result means the inverse is true giving me an 87.5% chance of not getting the card I want. So the reality being that its just as likely to gain a favorable outcome as an unfavorable one, it therefore follows that believing anything else to be true is gamblers fallacy.

This all still is off the original topic.

This is what happens in reality.
The desired result is for the coin to be heads at least 1 time when making 3 attempts. The inverse would be the coin never landing on heads. The likelihood of that happening is 1/8 or 12.5% because there is only one outcome "TTT" that did not contain any heads.

If you dont want it simplified, I'll unsimplify it. Let's use a 6 sided die as the AST deck has 6 cards. There are 3 even numbers and 3 odd numbers just like in the scenario of 3 desired and 3 undesired cards. You roll it twice. What is the probability of rolling an even number at least once?
There are 36 possible outcomes (6x6).
27 of said possible outcomes will contain at least one even number:
2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
1,2 1,4 1,6
3,2 3,4 3,6
5,2 5,4 5,6

27/36 = 75% chance

[Noira]

It really sounds like you guys are arguing the same point LOL.

[J-Dax]

Snip

Explaining why the probability is 1/2 for a fair coin
We can see from the above that, if one flips a fair coin 21 times, then the probability of 21 heads is 1 in 2,097,152. However, the probability of flipping a head after having already flipped 20 heads in a row is simply 1⁄2. This is an application of Bayes' theorem.

This can also be seen without knowing that 20 heads have occurred for certain (without applying of Bayes' theorem). Consider the following two probabilities, assuming a fair coin:

probability of 20 heads, then 1 tail = 0.520 × 0.5 = 0.521
probability of 20 heads, then 1 head = 0.520 × 0.5 = 0.521
The probability of getting 20 heads then 1 tail, and the probability of getting 20 heads then another head are both 1 in 2,097,152. Therefore, it is equally likely to flip 21 heads as it is to flip 20 heads and then 1 tail when flipping a fair coin 21 times. Furthermore, these two probabilities are equally as likely as any other 21-flip combinations that can be obtained (there are 2,097,152 total); all 21-flip combinations will have probabilities equal to 0.521, or 1 in 2,097,152. From these observations, there is no reason to assume at any point that a change of luck is warranted based on prior trials (flips), because every outcome observed will always have been as likely as the other outcomes that were not observed for that particular trial, given a fair coin. Therefore, just as Bayes' theorem shows, the result of each trial comes down to the base probability of the fair coin: 1⁄2.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

[winsock]

Snip

Your wikipedia copy paste does not apply.
Again gambler fallacy works like this:
Your lottery number is 5 numbers between 1 and 100. The fallacy is believing that 43,22,67,18,90 has a better chance of winning than 1,2,3,4,5.

Read some articles about calculating probably of dice. I'm sure there are many.

You can't get more real than real life.
Do this.
Flip a coin in sets of ten.
Do this several times and track the results.
How many sets contained at least 1 head?
How many sets contained all tails?
It's not 50/50.
Each individual flip is 50/50, but the likelihood of a head appearing in a set is not.

[MidnightTundra]

Healers are catty on these forums.

[Luvbunny]

Honestly, AST kinda plays just like a watered down version of WHM, with more "utilities" with their cards. I always go with Diurnal stance since the regen effect is way way better compared to the shield one (shield is fine for pulling trash, but bosses best with Diurnal). SCH is the only healer that feels different. While AST and WHM plays very similar to me, which is totally fine. I am glad they bump up the heal potency of AST. And honestly, don't give a shit about "identity", as long as healer can heal

[Lazka]

Healers are catty on these forums.

nah.. its same in every section forum (tank and dps)
just see it lol....

[Alahra]

Winsock, J-Dax, you two are talking about completely different things.

Winsock is correct that you can estimate the probability of a specific desired outcome happening X times out of Y events and J-Dax is also correct that the probability of that specific desired outcome on any one specific event is always the same! These two facts are not mutually exclusive.

[winsock]

Here are the probabilities.
Three cards are favorable, three cards aren't. For simplification we will equate favorable to heads and unfavorable to tails.

The probability of getting heads in three attempts is 85%. The inverse must also be true meaning the probability of getting tails is also 85% It is just as likely that after three attempts I will pull a favorable outcome as it is I will pull an unfavorable one or 50/50.


This all still is off the original topic.

Responding to your updated post. The question is: what is the probability of getting AT LEAST one head within 3 flips? The answer is 87.5%.

The inverse to this is "not rolling any heads" which is 12.5%.

You do have an 87.5% chance for at least one tails to appear as well. This is because you can potentially roll something like "THH" and manage to get a head and a tails within 3 flips.