Astro in savage

[Leiloni]

I'm no statistician, so anyone with more knowledge in field can correct my logic if I'm mistaken. If I recall my math properly, here's the logic.


The first 1/3 is the chance of you drawing the desired card (Arrow / Balance). This is a 33.3% probability

The second half of the equation is 1/3 * 2/3. This is the math to indicate the probability of drawing Arrow / Balance again if you had the opportunity to re roll your chances. You have a 2/3 chance to require a re-roll, and in that re-roll you have a 1/3 chance to get the card you want - hence the 1/3 * 2/3 = 2/9 or 22.2% chance.

You combine the two probabilities together to ascertain the probability of acquiring an Arrow / Balance card in two attempts, which is 55.5%.

With the assumption that I intend to RR my first card (regardless of the situation), my second draw will always be at the one minute after I potentially used a shuffle two draws ago, so I will always have shuffle up at the same time I'm drawing the card I want to use my RR effect on.

Thank you for the explanation!

Also, where did my post go?