Alexander token loot system using DF. How does it compare to COIL loot system. Math?

[Brundlefly]

Looking quickly at loot lists, here is what I found.
(Note: The numbers are going to be different when in a static. This post is more for DF.)

COIL:
Picked a random turn (turn11). Has 18 pieces and 2 can drop per run (Ignoring mats). So at there is a 1/9 chance the item will drop. (There may be more than one person wanting that gear as well, but for now we will assume they don't.)

Alexander:
Let's take A1 (floor 1). Has 3 items and 2 can drop per run. Let's consider worst possible scenario. Let's say everyone is going for optimal looting choice to gear their character fully in week 5. This means that most people would want 1 of the 3 pieces and to scrap the others. This in effect gives a 2/3 pieces drop with 8 people lotting on that 1 item if that is one of the one's that dropped.

[DoctorPepper]

Looking quickly at loot lists, here is what I found.
(Note: The numbers are going to be different when in a static. This post is more for DF.)

COIL:
Picked a random turn (turn11). Has 18 pieces and 2 can drop per run (Ignoring mats). So at there is a 1/9 chance the item will drop. (There may be more than one person wanting that gear as well, but for now we will assume they don't.)

Alexander:
Let's take A1 (floor 1). Has 3 items and 2 can drop per run. Let's consider worst possible scenario. Let's say everyone is going for optimal looting choice to gear their character fully in week 5. This means that most people would want 1 of the 3 pieces and to scrap the others. This in effect gives a 2/3 pieces drop with 8 people lotting on that 1 item if that is one of the one's that dropped.

You need to take into account that the same item can drop multiples in alexander. For example, both drops from floor 1 can be for the waist slot. The math is the same either way because the chance is there for all items but I just thought I would throw it out there because you mentioned scrapping items.

[Brundlefly]

You need to take into account that the same item can drop multiples in alexander. For example you both drops from floor 1 can be for the waist slot.

Oh thanks, I didn't even think about that or notice it during my runs yesterday.

[DoctorPepper]

It's difficult to determine the actual percentages of obtaining loot because the variable of who is rolling on what items changes from party to party. All you can determine as a definite value would be the chance that something you want will drop.

Basically the chance to see an item you want drop increases by a significant amount but the chance to actually obtain the item will vary from party to party based on loot preferences.

As far as I can tell, if 3 other players specifically want the loot you want and nothing else then your chances are the same as coil. If more than that want the same specific item as you then your chances are lower.

The other factor to consider however is that if you're willing to roll on any of the available loot that drops rather than a specific piece, you will have a slightly higher chance to obtain loot than you did before in coil picking specific items or jobs. If some people in the party are passing specific items then your chance will increase further by rolling on anything that drops.

[Bojobear]

...But the odds are better, cause multiples of the same thing can drop. Like in A4 last night, two shafts dropped same run

[DoctorPepper]

...But the odds are better, cause multiples of the same thing can drop. Like in A4 last night, two shafts dropped same run

On the other side of the coin, there is also a chance that 2 of the same thing that you don't want can drop as well, 1/3 is the same as 2/6.

One thing I wasn't taking into consideration as well is that you need multiple items to get a piece of gear. That decreases the odds of actually getting a piece of equipment as well since you have to win 2-4 times instead of a single time.

[EdgeFayth]

...But the odds are better, cause multiples of the same thing can drop. Like in A4 last night, two shafts dropped same run

Well, RNG...
A friend wanted a spring on F4. He did it 10 times in a row, and did not see even one. At the same time, my group dropped 6 springs in 4 runs.
RNG...

For me this is definitely better than before. But I can see getting the items you want outside of a static group can be tricky (people in PF will leave once they got their items, and you have to fight against potentially 7 other people in DF).

I think a system a la 3.0 EX primals would have been better.

[Namida-Hikari]

Well, RNG...
A friend wanted a spring on F4. He did it 10 times in a row, and did not see even one. At the same time, my group dropped 6 springs in 4 runs.
RNG...

That's exactly why I hate this loot system!!! Did 9 runs and don't even get one loot. Farming again and again to see newcomers roll for the first time and get the loot you're here for since hours... NOT FAIR.