The Ultimate Black Mage Resources with Damage Calculator

[Judge_Xero]

At a glance though it looks like BLM and SMN are going to really close in fights.

SMN is getting a bit more Burst AOE potential + Single Target Damage

BLM is getting more single target Damage + slightly less AOE potential.

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I think it will be really close and I don't think SMN will have MP issues at all if you figure out how to manage the Dreadwyrm Trance (Ruin III becomes 1/2 the cost of Ruin -> MP Gain)

There's no arguing that a lot of the advantages BLM had over SMN (Selene, proper ACC cap, taking advantage of every single stat) are going away or being mitigated heavily. At this point, it does look safer to get, I agree. Assuming same DPS (hard to say yet who should do more based on potencies), it'd come down to:

BLM: Apoc, bursty, Manawall/ward, probably still better at AoE in small amounts as advantages
SMN: better E4E/Virus, Resurrection, easier mobility, can't possibly get screwed by phase changes/timers (well, aside from losing DoT durations, but that's usually only an issue as you overgear)

Just gotta hope BLM does a bit more ST DPS during optimal uptime, or else yeah I think BLM will be in a rough spot in raids. Although I won't lie, I really, REALLY like having shielding for progression but that's more a comfort thing.

I think BLM will have a higher ceiling than SMN given a very skilled player/team synergy + Shield Usage. Unless SMN Dots are getting a potency boost as well, BLM still appears to have the benefit of higher direct damage skills. I suspect it will come down to Movement Heavy/Turret fights where each will hold a slight edge, due to the Leyline mechanic for BLM. But I can live with that over BLM wins on all the things.

[Aikaal]

At a glance though it looks like BLM and SMN are going to really close in fights.
Unless SMN Dots are getting a potency boost as well, BLM still appears to have the benefit of higher direct damage skills.

Everyone tells me that Spell Speed will give a potency boost on dots + reducing GCD. Summoners have have up to 5 DoTs, BLM have 1. I think it's fair to assume the reason Selene will give a 3% haste instead of 30% skill/spell speed is because of that. People also forget that one trait that is useless for Summoners until 3.0 hit : You have 20% chance on a pet damage or healing crit to grant 20% Spell Speed. I'd track down that buff when I get to refresh all my dots when it happens if Speed ends up extremely potent on Summoner.