Sure, I'll still log in on the 19th at 2 AM. SE can't block me or those without the expansion from doing that, as early access only applies to getting into Ishgard proper. I'll continue to craft and level up (slowly) with out the expansion. If I find out that crafting/gathering specializations are gated behind the expansion, which they shouldn't as the guilds are in ARR areas. Then I'll just put my hands up and call it the day and move on.

I'm at a point in videogaming that if expansion/dlc don't add anything substantially different and new to the game, I see at as not worth it.