32 different permutations of proc (40%) and no proc (60%) with the probability of each being (.4^p)*(.6^(5-p))

The number of actual procs you do get is equal to the number of procs - the total number of a series of 2 procs in a row + the total number of a series of 3 procs in a row - the total number of a series of 4 procs in a row + the total number of a series of 5 procs in a row. Sum up this number with its respective probability and you get 1.51.

It's about the total number of procs per cycle, not the total number of available procs per cycle.

The adjustments for fire weaving and using fire IV from here aren't too bad. I think people will be disappointed in what the numbers actually say though.