Jumbo Cactpot is losing players interest.

[Nasibihc]

One in ten isn't astronomically low, and you're very unlikely to keep losing continuously. It's certainly not a fast way to earn points, but if you play regularly, chances are you'll come out ahead on it overall. It's only the jackpot that's set for an astronomically low chance, but that one is intended to be.

We were talking about the jumbo cactpot, this whole thread is about the jumbo cactpot, not the mini cactpot. Jumbo cactpot should be fixed so that it'd give you a small payout if you happen to get 1 right number, 2 right numbers, 3 right numbers and 4 right numbers and jackpot if all the numbers are in the correct order, or something like that, kind of like the real lottery works. The way it is now, it's 1/10000 chance to win. I have never even got anything else than the consolation prize, so yeah it does feel like a waste to buy the ticket when you're probably not going to win anything as long as you live on this earth.

[JayCommon]

We were talking about the jumbo cactpot, this whole thread is about the jumbo cactpot, not the mini cactpot. Jumbo cactpot should be fixed so that it'd give you a small payout if you happen to get 1 right number, 2 right numbers, 3 right numbers and 4 right numbers and jackpot if all the numbers are in the correct order, or something like that, kind of like the real lottery works. The way it is now, it's 1/10000 chance to win. I have never even got anything else than the consolation prize, so yeah it does feel like a waste to buy the ticket when you're probably not going to win anything as long as you live on this earth.

He was also talking about the jumbo cactpot...

You have a 1/10 chance to win 10x your investment. The last number can only be 0-9....

10 digits..........

As long as you live on this Earth if you can't eventually match 1 number out of 10 then perhaps you should just chalk up lotteries as a loss and move on.

And while we are on the topic of odds, people complain that 1/10000 is so horrible and cry, "Oh, we want this lottery to work like a REAL LIFE lottery works" and simultaneously, "This is a GAME, this isn't FUN".


Ok, then. Let's have SE make it so the order of numbers doesn't matter. Automatically in the same patch, the amount of integers available to each placeholder multiples by 8 and you start getting closer to a real life lottery's odds at winning the grand prize...Also, lets inflate the amount of numbers you need to match correctly to 6 and we inch even closer still.

Chance in hitting the grand prize of Mega-Millions is 1:258,890,850 Source

SE response? "Bu-but this is what the players wanted?!"

I happen to think 1/10000 for a grand prize might be amongst the absolute most lenient odds to ever inhabit a lottery in the history of anything. Would love to proven wrong on that (seriously)


Either play it or don't.

[Khaoticsuccubus]

Ok, then. Let's have SE make it so the order of numbers doesn't matter. Automatically in the same patch, the amount of integers available to each placeholder multiples by 8 and you start getting closer to a real life lottery's odds at winning the grand prize...Also, lets inflate the amount of numbers you need to match correctly to 6 and we inch even closer still.

Chance in hitting the grand prize of Mega-Millions is 1:258,890,850 Source

SE response? "Bu-but this is what the players wanted?!"

I happen to think 1/10000 for a grand prize might be amongst the absolute most lenient odds to ever inhabit a lottery in the history of anything. Would love to proven wrong on that (seriously)


Either play it or don't.

Why change the number of integers involved in the lottery. The only thing people are asking for is that it count just matching numbers rather than in order from last to first.

The reason people for this bring up comparisons to RL lottery is because people against it brought it up first lol. The general argument against changing the J cactpot is that real life chances of winning are exceptionally low as well so that's just how this sorta thing works.

In general the play it or don't argument though is bad for business and for the life of the game. As others have pointed out. The number of tickets being bought each week continues to plummet (haven't noticed on my server yet but, my server is kinda huge lol).

If hardly anyone participates in your content. Then your content is flawed in some way. It's just how it is. SE (and other companies for that matter) make adjustments all the time for this very reason lol.

[JayCommon]

snip

Change the number of integers because in lotteries that "the order of your numbers doesn't matter", specifically in my cited instance with Mega Millions you are choosing between 75 numbers, not 10.

"What came first, the chicken or the egg." Unfortunately, I don't care why the comparisons were brought up, but the louder voice in that argument is obviously people in this thread who are demanding some kind of change.

As others have also pointed out numerous times, this is an MMO. A vast variety of content was made to try and cater to an even vaster group of people. If you honestly think that every single snippet of content is going to be agreed upon, or enjoyed by every single person who plays this game then you and everyone else here is in a for a rude awakening.

By your logic, Big Fishing should be changed so I don't have to work at it because I don't find it fun at all. I choose not to do that content, though. I don't go into the Gathering sub-forum and complain that the RNG is too ridiculous on Big Fishing because I understand how fishing works in real life. I don't somehow feel entitled enough to believe a Nepto Dragon should just hop on to my line with no effort put forth.


And lastly, you saying "If hardly anyone participates in your content......etc etc" is extremely over-exaggerated. I am in one of the lowest populated servers in this game and we had over 1,700 tickets sold in our last Cactpot.




This thread has been active for a month and has 83 posts........

[BlaiseArath]

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I understand why you keep bringing up the real life lottery. Its to show that the odds in XIV are significantly higher than in real life to compensate for the fact FFXIV is a video game and no one wants to spend their life gambling for worthless currency. So you have a 1 in 10,000 chance to win instead of a 1 in (large number). Which in your mind simply means that they've calculated the odds of winning to compensate for the fact its fake currency in a video game already, and doesn't need to be compensated further. It is true, and thats a compelling argument.

I respect the logic of your position but I'd still stand to disagree. 1,700 is not an impressive number for a game with a boasted subscription rate of over 2.5 million (am i remembering that right?) even if we assume every server has at least 1,700 participants thats still far less than a quarter of people participating in this "event" where the only effort it takes is to talk to an NPC. When your event can't even get people to bother spending 10 seconds to talk to an NPC I think there's a failure a long the course somewhere.

I agree that its the fairest lottery if you compare it to real life, but would there be so much harm in changing it to "All matching number" instead of "order only"? They could compensate this by making the winning values less for 2-4th place... even if people are winning less, the fact that they are winning would be enough for most. I can't remember the psychology theory or what have you, but the jist of it is there's a compensation ratio people take into consideration when doing something. Take a game like Diablo for example. If you go to long without a legendary you become discouraged and want to play less (or quit entirely like the failure of D3's launch)... but if the player receives a legendary, even if it turns out to be crap, the "thrill" of it dropping increases their interest in doing more, because they know that there's a good chance they'll see another and maybe it will be good.

The idea is, even if you enter the lottery and only win 1,000 MGP, you know that you have a good chance of winning that or more next time because the odds are at least in your favor. You don't have to hit the jackpot every time but if you get little bread crumbs in decent enough intervals you keep them interested for longer because they at least have the "thrill" of winning every so often.

Making things too uncommon is going to appeal to a very small amount of people (though I understand the appeal), but in an event such as this, you want to use the stimulation of success to keep people interested longer. When someone buys a ticket ever week for a few months and has only ever won the failure prize, they're going to eventually say "F**k it" entirely, like many already have considering the first months participation compared to now. Above all else you cannot deny that participation has severely dropped, and thats sad considering all you have to do is talk to an NPC and pay a measly 100 MGP (75 or so which will likely be returned to you).

Again, "Matching Numbers" won't make the jackpot easier, but it will make the 2nd-4th easier, and again, they can adjust the reward to compensate so its still within their estimations. Its about giving people the thrill of winning that keeps them coming back.

[Khaoticsuccubus]

Change the number of integers because in lotteries that "the order of your numbers doesn't matter", specifically in my cited instance with Mega Millions you are choosing between 75 numbers, not 10.

"What came first, the chicken or the egg." Unfortunately, I don't care why the comparisons were brought up, but the louder voice in that argument is obviously people in this thread who are demanding some kind of change.

As others have also pointed out numerous times, this is an MMO. A vast variety of content was made to try and cater to an even vaster group of people. If you honestly think that every single snippet of content is going to be agreed upon, or enjoyed by every single person who plays this game then you and everyone else here is in a for a rude awakening.

By your logic, Big Fishing should be changed so I don't have to work at it because I don't find it fun at all. I choose not to do that content, though. I don't go into the Gathering sub-forum and complain that the RNG is too ridiculous on Big Fishing because I understand how fishing works in real life. I don't somehow feel entitled enough to believe a Nepto Dragon should just hop on to my line with no effort put forth.


And lastly, you saying "If hardly anyone participates in your content......etc etc" is extremely over-exaggerated. I am in one of the lowest populated servers in this game and we had over 1,700 tickets sold in our last Cactpot.




This thread has been active for a month and has 83 posts........

Still not exactly sure where the mega millions example matters lol. Mega millions is something that hands out real money and allows people to purchase multiple tickets to pad their chances as well. The Jpot however isn't even the games real currency. It's tokens only usable within the gold saucer where the emphasis is to have fun and pretty much everything else at the GS reflects this. With pretty much every other event and game handing out plentiful payouts even if you lose. The Jpot is the only one that doesn't. Seems counterproductive imo lols.

As you've said "this is an MMO. A vast variety of content was made to try and cater to an even vaster group of people". There really is no harm in appeasing that vast group of people with an actual chance at winning more than they paid out ;P, especially when the grand prize has the exact same chances as it did before. Hell, they already do this with the TT tournament. Consolation prize for that is like 16000 MGP and 3 plat booster packs. Granted I'm not sure if that one is weekly or not.... hmmm...

Lastly, my comment about content participation wasn't meant to be representative of current in game numbers. But, rather a general prediction based off fact. It is a fact, that the number of people purchasing Jpot tickets have dropped significantly since it launched. It is a fact that those numbers seem to continue to drop in some form each week. Therefore, one may make a reasonable generalization that something may not be okay about the Jpot. And that maybe something should change. ^_^

Technically, they are following this same reasoning with raiding in the xpac. With Alexander normal being far easier to complete for the casual playerbase than coil ever was. Granted, Jpot is a minigame and alex is main content however, even then their were those who argued at one time that coil was NOT main content. That it was optional content and that the casual playerbase didn't need to see it. I'm probably rambling a bit now lol but, my point is I feel like a similar situation is happening here as well in regards to the Jpot.

Anyway, that's pretty much how I view the situation. In the end it probably doesn't really matter to me much but, I can easily see the value of such a change. I'm sorry you can't seem to but, hey, it's your prerogative if you want to be the grumpy cat of the forums (^.~)V

[JayCommon]

a logical retort...bravo

I'll debate with you, piece by piece.

You are right. 1,700 is not an impressive number. That number wasn't used in order to shove in anyone's face as if it were any type of overwhelming majority of players. But based on the recent reddit thread that combed the lodestone for active accounts to see the number of players with the Louisoix minion, Goblin server ranked right in the 57th(?) spot out of 63(?) servers. The exact numbers elude me at the moment but for argument sake, were are among the top 10 lowest pop servers in the game. The forum community normally serves as a "small pool of the player's voice", because obviously not everyone in the game posts on the forums. More people read them then some would like to believe, but as far as voicing their opinions goes, the pool is normally small. Maybe this wasn't the greatest comparison to make...


But let's look at the things that have caused player outrage. Hunts being the best example when they implemented in 2.3. The General Discussion page had dozens of threads with <literally> thousands of collective responses from the public. This is something that actually affected the general player base, more so than anything I have ever witnessed here. And people made it a point to log in for the first time to complain about Hunts being the equivalent to "hand-outs" <-- (we might see this word again, prepare). A very vocal portion of our player base did not like what Hunts did to this game. There was also a very large portion of our player base that did like what Hunts brought to the game, however when Hunt rewards updated for the new tomestone gear in 2.5, the dev team opted to listen to the larger group (against), and made the Carbontwine/Coats take 6x/4x more Allied Seals respectively. They very well couldn't remove the content from the game after designing it, but they certainly made it tougher to get.

People didn't want to see their accomplishments trivialized in a matter of hours. Hence, my main problem with asking for the lottery to be re-worked.


This "thrill" you talk about. I know it all too well. I grinded 1million MGP for Fenrir from the Imperial. I never matched a single number from Jumbo Cactpot. I hit the 10k prize on the mini 9 times. I actually spent a little over 200k MGP on Silver/Gold packs to initially get to 60 cards before saving for Fenrir. The "thrill" I got when announcing in all the LS I was a part of, that server first Fenrir was making his way through Mor Dhona gates, and then seeing literally hundreds of people waiting for me there to see Fenrir for the first time was awesome! I even had people cheering me on my stream.

What I see from the argument is this: "Hey guys, I got Fenrir!!" Person A: "Yeah Billybob got it last week" Person B: "Joeyjojo got 2 days before!" Person C: "Who cares."


This thrill you speak of greatly diminishes if you match 3 numbers and go to tell people about it and they know 15-25 people who did as well. It's a lottery. It is supposed to be entirely random and you aren't actually supposed to have any good chance of winning. The 2nd place prize in most lotteries is just as astronomically ridiculous to hit as the grand prize. I just don't understand why people feel like they are entitled to have this be "re-worked". And I refuse to believe that the decay of ticket sales is any direct correlation to the OP thread title. There could be any amount of factors causing a decline in sales, most probably a decline in Subs while waiting for Heavensward.

If people were anywhere near as uninterested with this lottery system as the proponents of this thread claim, I honestly think there would be a lot more drama being caused because of it. I have yet to meet a single person who actually rages over not winning anything from this lottery. And I know people who have matched 3 numbers and missed 1 and didnt win anything but consolation. Laughed it off, because no one expects to win this thing anyway. In Diablo, you do expect to get legendaries it's one of the main selling points in any loot-grab type of game. (Personally I thought that was a bad comparison, I doubt anyone bought FFXIV solely because of a fake lottery. People literally stopped playing Diablo because their loot system was so broken, which is an inherent feature in a loot-grab game)


I will revert back to my original post I made in this thread. The prize costs are too high. The lottery works fine as is. What doesn't work fine, is people feeling like they need to win this thing in order to get the best prizes. It isn't true, but the amount of grinding I did for Fenrir killed triple triad for me. I don't care to even finish my card pool. That was bad design. Implementing a lottery that works exactly like one should, is not.

I'm sorry you can't seem to but, hey, it's your prerogative if you want to be the grumpy cat of the forums (^.~)V

And if that is how you want to view me, as a person, then that's also your prerogative. However, if you can't seem to see that just handing out MGP will actually make less people care about the rewards that come from it will kill the content in the long run, then we will just have to agree to disagree. People like rarity, and standing apart from their fellow person/player what-have-you. I think the rarity of the items is a bit too high. Not high enough to re-work the lottery to make more people win. This is not even content you can spend time on in-game outside of 10 seconds! Make the games, the actual attractions that are supposed to hold players interest more meaningful. Wanting more payout from a lottery just wreaks of wanting a hand-out to me.

[Niwashi]

With pretty much every other event and game handing out plentiful payouts even if you lose. The Jpot is the only one that doesn't.

So, for every other event, we have:
Chocobo races: you win MGP if you lose the race.
Triple Triad: you lose MGP if you lose the game (and in some cases if you tie).
GATEs: you lose MGP if you lose the game.
Mini-games: you lose MGP if you lose the game.
Guess we can tell which one you regard as "every other event" since there's only one that meets your "handing out plentiful payouts even if you lose" description.

And as to the Cactpot being the one that doesn't pay out on a loss, it varies according to the bonuses that get added. Some weeks it does pay out more than the cost of the ticket even on the consolation prize that you're guaranteed to get.

There really is no harm in appeasing that vast group of people with an actual chance at winning more than they paid out

The Cactpot already does reward significantly more than you pay out for the tickets.

If you lose completely, with no matches at all, you might be down a dozen or so MGP, maybe a couple dozen on a bad week, but on a good week you could also gain a dozen or two over the cost of the ticket from just the consolation prize. Consolation prizes alone will bring you pretty near to a break-even point, or perhaps down by just a few points.

But you're not always going to be getting just that consolation prize. One time in ten, on average, you're going to win significantly more, generally in the 12 to 15 hundred range. So to figure the value of your ticket, you'd first have to add a tenth of that (since it's 1 in 10 odds) to the value. (Note that even if this were the only prize, they didn't go any higher and there was no consolation prize if you lost, just the 1 in 10 chance of this prize alone would be worth more than what you pay for the ticket.)

But then there are also the rare chances of winning bigger prizes. Each adds on another prize level with roughly ten times the prize for one tenth the chance. (In other words, each level adds the same overall value, with any one of them being more than enough to pay for the ticket.)

So once a week, you get to buy a ticket that's worth somewhere around 5 or 6 hundred MGP or so, but only costs one hundred. Given that you're guaranteed to make at least most of that 100 back (and many weeks all of it) so you're not even risking the cost, the Cactpot is basically just free money being handed out every week.

It is a fact, that the number of people purchasing Jpot tickets have dropped significantly since it launched.

As it was supposed to. The number playing at launch were everyone interested in checking out the new content. The ones playing now are interested in the Gold Saucer, at least enough to take an occasional break there from the rest of the game. This is a vast game, with lots of other things going on. The GS was never intended to be its primary focus. It's a bit of light side content for when you want something that's not combat or crafting related. But since most players who are in FFXIV in the first place are interested in the combat (and many of them crafting as well), the Gold Saucer isn't likely to a primary focal point of the game for very many.

When it first launched, however, that's what it was. It was the primary focal point of the game simply because it was the new bit. It's not expected to have that much focus the rest of the time, when it's not new. There are still plenty of people at the Gold Saucer, and plenty of them playing the Cactpot, but most of the attention has shifted elsewhere (a great deal of it towards preparing for the new expansion coming up).

[thendcomes]

The prize isn't congruent with the odds for winning. You wanna compare it to the real lottery? LOL ok, let's see.

Consider a normal lottery that has 1/10,000 odds, a pick 4 straight. The most recent pick 4 in my home state paid out $3,787.50 for a 50 cent wager, which is a 7,575% payout for your odds. If the same payout structure applied to the Jumbo cactpot, winning the jackpot would pay out 757,500 mgp. It's current payout is 7 TIMES LESS.

You wanna compare it to the other lottery currently in game? Your chances of winning the 10k for mini cactpot is 2/21 or about 9%, while your chances for winning 10k from jumbo are 1/1000 or 0.1%. The payout is 90 TIMES WORSE than mini.

You wanna compare it with the amount of time it takes to accumulate the jackpot without lottery? Let's say Mega's jackpot is currently 100M, a person takes 2000 years to make 100M @ 50k/yr and will win the jackpot every 71,000 years playing 10x per day. That is 35 times longer. You will win the jumbo on average once every 190 years. It takes the average person about 15 hours to farm 100k mgp. That is 110,960 TIMES LONGER.

Ok I'm half joking with that last analogy, but seriously, do we really need to spell it out more? This is a bum feature with a poor odds-to-payout structure. It's no wonder so few people give enough of a shit to spend 30 seconds going over to buy a ticket.

[DarkDedede]

They should make the Jumbo Cactpot like the Mini, but with a larger payout. Even if they just added a zero to the end of the Mini Cactpot payouts (a possible 360-100,000 MGP to win), it would be more fun than the current setup. It would also add a bit of strategy and extra tension to the mix, as well.

Or, they could just make the Mini Cactpot have a 10x multiplier, once a week, and let the lottery collect dust.