I do think the Asciens are behind this this. Due to their age (and potentially being one of the 1st life forms in the world) the Celestial Dragons might be aware of the Asciens and in either case I don't think they are being directly manipulated by the Asciens.

However, it's highly probably that the Asciens are directly influencing the Ishgardians. We know that they manipulated/ played a role in:
1. City State Story quests
2. Lady Amandine Haukke (very minor character, yet she was used by the Ascien)
3. Beastribes
4. Gaius and Nael (maybe other Vans, too?)
5. They were right behind the Pope of Ishgard
6. SMN quest

We know that Asciens can possess bodies, so it's possible that one of his underlings is an Ascien, but it was Lolorito's overall plan. In the end, Asciens want destruction and chaos.