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  1. #11
    Player
    kyuven's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Ul'Dah
    Posts
    2,130
    Character
    Chen Kotomi
    World
    Adamantoise
    Main Class
    Archer Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Purrfectstorm View Post
    There have been studies that prove humans are very, very bad at assessing probability.
    MMOs would be the an interesting case study for this.
    "I didn't get this thing with a 20% drop rate in 50 runs (which turns out to be less than 20) therefore it's broken!"
    (0)

  2. #12
    Player Eidolon's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    1,373
    Character
    Muhau Nbolo
    World
    Mateus
    Main Class
    Warrior Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by kyuven View Post
    MMOs would be the an interesting case study for this.
    "I didn\\'t get this thing with a 20% drop rate in 50 runs (which turns out to be less than 20) therefore it\\'s broken!"
    I hope you meant 20 runs, and not 'less than 20%' xD I was a little confused by the post until I thought you probably meant they were overrexaggerating how many runs they had.

    Even still, 0/20 on 20% sucks. In a perfect world they'd be 4/20.
    (0)

  3. #13
    Player
    kyuven's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Ul'Dah
    Posts
    2,130
    Character
    Chen Kotomi
    World
    Adamantoise
    Main Class
    Archer Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Eidolon View Post
    I hope you meant 20 runs, and not 'less than 20%' xD I was a little confused by the post until I thought you probably meant they were overrexaggerating how many runs they had.

    Even still, 0/20 on 20% sucks. In a perfect world they'd be 4/20.
    yes, I meant less than 20 runs.
    It does suck, but this world is imperfect and math will never be exact (more precisely, probability will never be exact). There will always be that guy who got his atmas pre-droprate increase in one day alongside the guy who spent 2 weeks (doing 2 fates a day then coming to the forums and complaining about doing "hundreds" of fates) and only having 3, post droprate increase.
    (0)
    Last edited by kyuven; 04-26-2015 at 06:07 PM.

  4. #14
    Player
    Evangela's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    グリダニア
    Posts
    4,361
    Character
    Evangela Monterossa
    World
    Balmung
    Main Class
    Ninja Lv 90
    Pure RNG.

    I was struggling to get oils for all my accessories but never got any, meanwhile I've got 10+ UATs which I don't even want.
    (0)

  5. #15
    Player
    Carvaka's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    195
    Character
    Brainbasher Betty
    World
    Tonberry
    Main Class
    Marauder Lv 70
    Gotta love the bellcurve.
    (0)

  6. #16
    Player
    Zetsumei_Tsunarashi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Shadowlord Server
    Posts
    1,601
    Character
    Zetsumei Tsunarashi
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Summoner Lv 100
    Why are you trying to upgrade soldiery accessories instead of poetics. In that same 4 week period you could have got enough carbon coats from the weekly quest to have all 130 jewelery.
    (0)

  7. #17
    Player
    Cyrus-Wallace's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    The Mists
    Posts
    1,357
    Character
    Lucille Wallace
    World
    Siren
    Main Class
    Paladin Lv 90
    Something that I usually do, if I bring new people into that content, I kindly ask for people to pass on sands/oil. Some will accept, others won't, but with at least 1 person accepting, it will increase the odds for the new person to get said loot. Not all the people out there are trolls that live in their parent's basement. There're actually kind people that will understand the situation and /nod with your request.
    (0)

  8. #18
    Player
    GoldMoon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    13
    Character
    Gold Moon
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Alchemist Lv 50
    Quote Originally Posted by Zetsumei_Tsunarashi View Post
    Why are you trying to upgrade soldiery accessories instead of poetics. In that same 4 week period you could have got enough carbon coats from the weekly quest to have all 130 jewelery.
    Alt classes I imagine, I still need sands to upgrade my not played much classes weathered weapons.
    (0)

  9. #19
    Player
    Ashkendor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    4,659
    Character
    Ashkendor Zahirr
    World
    Balmung
    Main Class
    Paladin Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Zetsumei_Tsunarashi View Post
    Why are you trying to upgrade soldiery accessories instead of poetics. In that same 4 week period you could have got enough carbon coats from the weekly quest to have all 130 jewelery.
    My guess is because poetics is capped and soldiery isn't.

    An i110 piece is better than an empty gear slot.
    (1)

  10. #20
    Player Tiggy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    2,645
    Character
    Tiggy Te'al
    World
    Balmung
    Main Class
    Marauder Lv 53
    RNG /10char
    (0)

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