My guess is that neither Ishgard nor the Dravanians are fully bad or fully good and will most likely have a good faction that we side with for both as well as a bad faction that we fight against, with potentially an even bigger bad such as the Ascians pulling the strings behind the scenes to set forces against each other to empower themselves.
My theory.
The Covenant:
The Dravanians, under the leadership of Midgard, were originally good and were appointed by Hydaelyn to be the guardians of light in the world. As such they became the protectors of nature and keepers of balance in the world, with Midgard's specific tasks being to watch over Silvertear. This is the covenant that is spoken of in the story quests.
The Sin:
When the city-state of Ishgard grew in power, so did their hubris. They believed themselves superior to the natural world and felt that they were the true righteous champions of good and light, which led to the formation of the church and xenophobic zealotry of current Ishgard. The Ishgardians then began to impose their "righteous" will upon the world around them, which of course brought them into conflict with the Dravanians and the escalating conflict lead to the Dravanians Wars. In essence the Dravanians and Ishgardians conflict was a war of ideals, natural order vs. progress sort of thing, in which they both felt that they were in the right and were the good guys, although Ishgard was really more of the aggressor in this case. This going against the natural order, with perhaps a very specific embodiment such as the device idea that has been presented, is the great sin that the Dravanians accuse Ishgard of.
The good and the bad:
Going into the expansion I believe, as I stated that we will be working with both the Ishgardians and the Dravanians, being teamed with a good faction of them and doing battle against the bad faction of them that has now taken control. For the Dravanians, the offspring of Midgard that has called the rest of the Dravanians to battle will be the leader of the bad faction of them and will be more interested in revenge than maintaining the covenant. The good Dravanians will be mainly Midgard, who sees the path the Dravanians are going down and wants the player to help bring them back into their intended purpose as well as maybe finally accepting the player as a champion of light and so a "passing of the torch" scenario may happen.
As far as the Ishgardians, the bad faction will most likely be the church of Ishgard as it has already been heavily hinted at that they are being controlled or manipulated by the Ascians.
The good faction will most likely be a small contingency of leaders and noble houses that are fearful of what another war with the Dravanians will do to Ishgard and wish to find another way to end the conflict. Almeric will most likely play a large role in this and could potentially become the military leader of this faction.
Light and Dark:
As has been revealed in the story, the Ascians have been the puppet masters behind a lot of what has been going on and this will of course most likely continue on into the expansion.
We as the players will be working with the good elements within the Dravanians and Ishgardians in an attempt to stop the conflict. As we are doing this we discover that the Ascians are once again working behind the scenes and have manipulated the bad factions into full-scale war with each other, most likely so that they will destroy each other. The defeat of one or both groups will probably have some ripple effect, like the breaking of some seal or something, that will weaken Hydaelyn and therefore empower Zodiark, allowing the scales of balance to be tipped in darkness' favor.
So anyways, that is my general guess as to what is up with the story and where it will go.


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