Mastercraft Demimateria

[KendraDarkstar]

~cut for size~ I'm running on a current theory that as your success rate increases, the odds of geting the rare drops also increases. ~cut~

I've kept a bit of a mental track of where my MC rate rate lies as I've progressed through the desynthing. I landed on 61 +- 3% very very quickly even when my desyn was down near 77%. It's now 96.5ish (I forget the exact number, haven't done any in a few days) and my expected yields over large quantities are still matching my aggregate numbers.

To be clear - within the same level of desynth (it was 93 or 94) I did a 22 desynth run where I got 7 mastercraft, and a 22 desynth run where I got 21. They were back to back.

[Mishini_Dracoto]

I've kept a bit of a mental track of where my MC rate rate lies as I've progressed through the desynthing. I landed on 61 +- 3% very very quickly even when my desyn was down near 77%. It's now 96.5ish (I forget the exact number, haven't done any in a few days) and my expected yields over large quantities are still matching my aggregate numbers.

To be clear - within the same level of desynth (it was 93 or 94) I did a 22 desynth run where I got 7 mastercraft, and a 22 desynth run where I got 21. They were back to back.

Those #'s aren't generic with enough testing to prove my theory wrong though. Even all of the Artisan tool desynthesis I have done the entire time I've been doing it, would only be considered a small sample, but if I compared all of my total experiences from this behavior to say, the behavior of converting i90 crafted equipment to Tier IV materia. I had a friend do a SB run and get all Tier 3 materia, where I had only gotten Tier IV materia, and I didn't even believe him when he got mad at me. that gear as roughly an 80% conversion rate into Tier IV materia, so as he kept doing it, eventually, he started seeing normal numbers. I have NEVER seen what any of my friends consider to be normal #'s. Which is possible.

Another really old Dev post regarding the games RNG referenced a book called Thinking, Fast and Slow, and I have actually picked it up as of a couple weeks ago. Haven't spent a lot of time in it, and it does address things such as, humans are terrible intuitive statisticians. MY Heuristic on this topic is incredibly different than anybody else I know, that I am of wildly different opinions when it comes to this subject.