Percentage chance of success

[Midori_Dragon]

So when you should have a 75% chance of success, and fail 7 our of 10 times, then 4 out of 5 times....the average rate now is 30% and 20%. This is a constant problem for a lot of people, except those that seem to be blessed with the un-shown magical high luck and win most of the roles and rarely have this 'stuck on failure' issue most have.

It comes down to this, if it's broken, if the players...aka paying customers...feel they are being cheated, at some point they stop paying. What would happen to those few blessed people with high luck do when you loose a large portion of your population on the servers? Why pay to be cheated? This isn't Los Vegas where the casinos are rigged, as in designed for you to loose...at least that isn't what any of the advertizing implies. If the rng is going to fail, get stuck on failure and cheat us, it might get lonely if we stop paying to be screwed.

[StouterTaru]

I've found a zone change normally resets luck for me. Worked great for Atma, same for melding.

[Midori_Dragon]

Thank you, I'll give it a try, since I have this issue constantly when desynthing items, with very high failure rates with everything not at 100%. Still a serous problem with hasty touches failing 6 out of 9 in a 3 star craft...and reclaim still have a 10% failure that isn't promising when hitting so many 20% chance of failures. And if a zone change fixes the 'Stuck on bad' then that would imply a code bug...imagine that.

[EpicCid]

You guys still don't get what alex is saying. You need LARGE sample sizes (several hundred to one thousand minimum) before you will start to see the percentages work out. Also, failing once does not mean you are one step closer to success. Unless your success rate is 100%, there is always a chance to fail.

[Squintina]

My husband has managed to fail 8 times in a row (not counting using hasty touch and master's mend) while using hasty touch with steady hand. At a 70% chance, that's pretty bad.

Some might say it's bad luck - heck even I tell him that- but I do feel bad because this happens to him all the time while it rarely happens to me. I've seen him fail 4+ times in a row on 90% chance as well, several times, and I don't know how many times he's gotten to 85-96% quality on an item and gotten NQ but it's getting annoying and making him want to quit.

It might be RNG, but something's definitely up if some players get constant crappier luck than others. (and it is constant. He gets bad luck on nearly everything he crafts.)

[BLaCKnBLu3B3RRY]

lols. you peeps got nothing on this... i've had HQ attempts fail at 100% on numerous occasions. i won't even touch crafting with a ten foot pole anymore. sorry, but there is for sure something wrong with the way things work. i don't care what anyone says, i know 100% is 100% and it should be impossible to fail. but it has most certainly happened. i can't prove it, but that doesn't make it any less true. crafting in this game IS rigged.

[worldofneil]

Failing 5 of 8 actions at 80% success rate is wrong

So when you should have a 75% chance of success, and fail 7 our of 10 times, then 4 out of 5 times....the average rate now is 30% and 20%.

My husband has managed to fail 8 times in a row (not counting using hasty touch and master's mend) while using hasty touch with steady hand. At a 70% chance, that's pretty bad.

I've seen him fail 4+ times in a row on 90% chance as well, several times, and I don't know how many times he's gotten to 85-96% quality on an item and gotten NQ but it's getting annoying and making him want to quit.

I do understand the annoyance of having a high percentage action fail, but as others have already tried to point out in this thread, that is correct and it's not a problem with the game.

I do acknowledge that multiple people in this thread have said about having multiple failures in a row, but (and I mean no disrespect to anyone) that's completely irrelevant if you have lots of failures in a row since each action is individual and has nothing to do with the previous or even next action.

Something with a 90% success rate still has a 10% chance of failure. If it fails then the next time you try, it still has a same 10% chance of failure, the chance of success doesn't increase just because you've already tried multiple times and failed. It will continue to have that same percentage chance each time you try.

We expect a 90% chance of success to be pretty much guaranteed since it's such a high number, but the only guarantee of success is if it is 100%. Anything else has a chance of failure that can still happen as unlikely as we think it should be.

Over millions of attempts the average success rate would average out to the percentage chance it's claimed to be, but since no one person is doing millions of attempts and recording the results of each one it will always feel like it's fixed if we're getting the failures.

i've had HQ attempts fail at 100% on numerous occasions.

Then that's a bug and you should report it. I've personally never experienced a failure at 100% and I've not heard of anyone else either. Are you sure you didn't just run out of crafting steps as that would be the most logical explanation.

[Pterois]

it is because no one has done any research on which way to face while doing crafting and desynthing... call me crazy, call me old fashion (from ffxi) but the colored stars are on the horizon just like in ffxi.

i did a little "research" once when i had a bunch of rimless glasses to desynth and i swear after failing a crap ton at around 70% i faced another way and its seemed like my success rate jump to 90% (while still being 70%) and the amount of skill learned seemed to go up as well.

and the whole "pans out after thousands of times" thing is bull, you have a whatever% chance that time and that time alone... does not have anything to do with the craft/desynth/atma before or after it.

[Squintina]

I do acknowledge that multiple people in this thread have said about having multiple failures in a row, but (and I mean no disrespect to anyone) that's completely irrelevant if you have lots of failures in a row since each action is individual and has nothing to do with the previous or even next action.

I understand that. Unlike many others I actually do understand that 90% is applied per action, not per synth. I do understand it is theoretically possible to fail at 70-90% multiple times in a row. But when I see this happening to a single person every day (not exaggerating. I mean it. Every.Day.), for the majority of his crafting attempts, I can't help but wonder what the formula really is because it is completely unfair. Then see it also happen to his inability to get HQ until 100% (or within the 25-35% range. I kid you not, that's the only time he gets HQ). Then see it happen as well on desynthesis... The only rates that seem to average out to roughly what they should be for him are the gathering rates.

It is statistically possible to fail that much, but it should still be fairly unlikely, and does that honestly seem right to you? And does it seem right for one person to fail that many times while others, like me, succeed almost always (I'm one of those people who get HQ pretty much no matter what I do unless I really slack off, even though we use the same rotation, and both keep up with our gear)? Something is definitely up with that formula.

And while there might be a lot of people for whom the rates are normal, if there are also many vocal people who feel the rates don't quite seem right, shouldn't it be worth looking into? For all we know maybe there is a special bug out there that only applies to certain characters, but SE won't find it unless people speak up and they actually look!

[worldofneil]

... does that honestly seem right to you?

Morally? No, it feels very unfair that one person has more bad luck than another. Technically? Yes, it's a random chance each time and unfortunately there is no guarantee. For lack of better wording, luck is unfortunately luck...

if there are also many vocal people who feel the rates don't quite seem right, shouldn't it be worth looking into? For all we know maybe there is a special bug out there that only applies to certain characters, but SE won't find it unless people speak up and they actually look!

I haven't seen the post in question (they have 340+ posts, I didn't feel like looking through them all), but I got from the impression from the person in post 2 in this thread that they had already reported it and they'd received a reply saying it was working as expected so not really sure what else can be done if SE are saying they've look at it and it's not broken.

Please don't misunderstand, I also hate it when I try to do something multiple times and it continually fails (melding is my personal nemesis as like most people I don't have money to throw around!), but at the same time the only way SE could "fix" this (since apparently they don't consider it broken) would be to increase percentage chances (would still have a chance of failure though!) or to literally alter the mechanics so you have guaranteed success rates (which also gives guaranteed failure rates), such as 90% chance would mean every 10th one would definitely fail (or somewhere in every 10). It would break the whole percentage chance though and could probably be abused once you knew your fail percentages for that "cycle" had passed already.