I don't know at what point a F2P model becomes more profitable than a subscription model, but from what I hear FFXIV currently has over 2 million subs. So, it probably won't happen for a while yet, and won't until those sub numbers go down significantly.
The cash shop is certainly a step toward exploring that territory, or at least putting in a "safety net" ahead of time for if/when they decide to go F2P. All the people who support the cash shop actually seem rather ironic. I don't think they realize that if the cash shop does well, it will send a message to SE that a F2P cash shop model might be feasible.


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