12 weeks of Coil T6+T7 without my loot dropping.

[logicallysynced]

Our brd doesnt have his Bow yet... and we have been clearing since like May.... But he does have 3 other Coil Weapons...

Rng is rng.

Like i posted before.. If RNG is RNG, then you would get more vast results in loot drops.

Try it for yourself:-

http://thejourneynetwork.net/loot/rngtest.php

[ananda]

Like i posted before.. If RNG is RNG, then you would get more vast results in loot drops.

Try it for yourself:-

http://thejourneynetwork.net/loot/rngtest.php

Ugh that is not how you use a program to simulate the scenario. The computer can roll the dice millions of times a second, why force us to click for each one? That site will not produce statistically significant data unless you sit there and repeatedly press the button all day.

Yes, of course getting 3 in a row is not that easy that it happens all the time. But our argument is that it will happen 1 time out of X tries on average. If X is 5000, and you have 5000 groups, it expected that it will happen to someone. Not that it will happen to everyone or even to most of them.

If you are interested about data of getting the same drop 3 times in a row. What you need to do is roll the dice automatically 10 times, and call that 1 group. Now have the program roll that way for 1 million groups, and check how many groups have at least 3 consecutive rolls. About 10% of the groups will get 3 rolls or more. So if you see a group gets 3 in a row during the course of clearing t9 10 times, why should you be surprised or suspect that the RNG they use is wrong?

Back on topic, I think SE may introduce token system once the expansion comes out, i.e. for the new raid after coil ended. There will be new classes then, so using the same RNG system would push the probability way out of our favor.

Right now, I suspect it is exactly at where SE wants it to be. To get a specific 8 weapons out of 9, you need on average 25 weeks. Which is roughly the same as the lifetime of the raid, and presumably they want people to keep playing the raid for at least that long. Even if they introduce token system, it would probably be tuned to the same length, perhaps needing 20 clears to get the guaranteed loot from token. Which is pointless to do, because by that time the next raid will have arrived and you can farm the previous one already.

With the addition of ninja, the probability will change, but not by much. Getting a specific 8 weapons out of 10 will require about 27 clears on average. But once the expansion arrives and they add a lot more classes, it will get much worse. If 3 new classes are added, getting 8 out of 13 is much harder and will require 35 clears or so. I think they will change something then. Either make it so that only items that the party can use will drop, or use a token system, or something else.

[whoopeeragon]

Like i posted before.. If RNG is RNG, then you would get more vast results in loot drops.

Try it for yourself:-

http://thejourneynetwork.net/loot/rngtest.php

Thank you for the site. I decided to test it out, but in the scenario of where 10 groups go in each week, and the dice rolls for each win.

Here are the results:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

I understand that 10 groups in 10 weeks isn't a very large sample size, but for the sake of RNG, I felt it was sufficient to prove a point that there is no 'bias' in the RNG.

As you can see, yes, side by side with one group followed by another, there are barely any 'in-rows' of duplicate items.

However, once you start going DOWN, there are definitely repeats.

Lets start with each individual group.

Group 1 got 3 bows and 3 casting breeches in succession. They also received 3 healing pants, but not in succession.
Group 2 had a rather balanced loot pool in terms of repeats in succession, but also received 3 healing pants and crooks.
Group 3 ...well, 7 blades in a row, and 8 in total. They also received 3 aiming bodies.
Group 4 obtained 3 spears and 3 heavy bodies in a row, on the same week. 5 total spears.
Group 5, along with 7, was probably THE most balanced loot pool in numbers.
Group 6 had 7 maiming belts, 4 in a row followed by 3 in a row. They also received 3 staffs.
Group 8 had 4 bows in a row and then 4 fending rings in a row.
Group 9 had 5 bows total, 3 in a row, as well as 5 total casting pants.
Group 10 obtained 6 MNK fists, 3 in a row, along with 5 casting pants, 3 in a row, and 3 SMN books.

And this was using an unbiased RNG according to the site.

I leave the results to speak for themselves, but for those crying RNG, it happens. There's no bias, and I don't think SE's RNG is broken either.

Just some food for thought.

Only 2 groups out of 10 had a balanced loot pool. 2. Out of 10. Let that sink in.

[scarebearz]

I leave the results to speak for themselves, but for those crying RNG, it happens. There's no bias, and I don't think SE's RNG is broken either.

This does not change the fact that it's a really Poor System for weekly lockout content.

If no lockouts and you can farm kills, sure RNG is fine, for the hardest boss that you can kill only once a week, for 1 weapon drop, it's lame.

[whoopeeragon]

This does not change the fact that it's a really Poor System for weekly lockout content.

If no lockouts and you can farm kills, sure RNG is fine, for the hardest boss that you can kill only once a week, for 1 weapon drop, it's lame.

I'm not denying that, but the purpose of that spreadsheet was to counter people saying that the RNG is biased because they say <blah> drop 4 times or never see <blah> after <blah> runs.

Would I prefer a different system? Yes, but from what I can see, the RNG is what is it, RNG. Not RNG-to-troll-you-on-purpose.