12 weeks of Coil T6+T7 without my loot dropping.

[raelgun]

Actually it wouldnt work, because we already have SOLD gear as the alternative to use, thats why its there to fill in the gaps. People are just being greedy and not looking at the bigger picture, there is an option, you are just refusing to accept it. Upgrade is an upgrade, thats how its always been, refusing an upgrade is just idiotic, get the alternative item, use it.

[Orlandeu]

This was actually brought up somewhere and I actually kinda liked it:

You get a high all again weapon component in each turn of coil which you trade in to Gerolt or whoever for your choice of High Allagan Weapon. In this case, all groups that clear coil still gets one weapon per week but without the added rng factor.

Again, this isn't my idea. Just heard/read it somewhere.

[Ultimatecalibur]

1.17% or 0.54% isn't that low.

Do you know that, with my team, we got 4 staff in row, if I calculate, the % was something like 0.015%, that's kinda low.
But 0.54% is 1/200, and 200 with the number of players, it's not something hard to get.

Mine is 1/6500, that's kinda low, specially for T9.
But it's still not low enough to not be impossible.

Exactly, but many people don't understand how big a .1% chance is when there are roughly 14 000 groups doing something.

Did someone got same item 5 time in row ? i wonder, must be really realy unlucky. (chance for this are like 1/58 000)

That isn't what I calculated, but might have occurred. Once you get 4 weapons in a row there is a 1 in 9 chance you go 5 in a row even though there is a ~.015% chance of it happening when you started. Many people confuse the current probability of something happening with the initial probability of something happening.

[Madoka]

Actually it wouldnt work, because we already have SOLD gear as the alternative to use, thats why its there to fill in the gaps. People are just being greedy and not looking at the bigger picture, there is an option, you are just refusing to accept it. Upgrade is an upgrade, thats how its always been, refusing an upgrade is just idiotic, get the alternative item, use it.

It's a worthless upgrade if you can't keep accuracy with it. tokens are perfectly fine if you get the tokens for clearing the content.

Nobody's saying I beat T6 once, gimme a token to trade for a HA weapon! It'd be a shop to trade several tokens that take weeks to obtain for one piece from the one turn they're applicable too.

[RoninDarkchild]

Our brd doesnt have his Bow yet... and we have been clearing since like May.... But he does have 3 other Coil Weapons...

Rng is rng.

[ananda]

Do you know that, with my team, we got 4 staff in row, if I calculate, the % was something like 0.015%, that's kinda low.
Mine is 1/6500, that's kinda low, specially for T9.
But it's still not low enough to not be impossible.

Did someone got same item 5 time in row ? i wonder, must be really realy unlucky. (chance for this are like 1/58 000)

This is wrong. The probability for a specific weapon dropping 4 times is indeed 1 /(9*9*9*9), or 1 in 6561. But for any weapon dropping 4 times in a row, the first probability is 1 since it can be anything, the next 3 drops just have to be the same as that first one. So the probability is 1/(1*9*9*9), or 1 in 729. That's almost certain to have happened to many people given the number of groups who can clear t9. And for 5 weapons in a row it is of course 1 in 6561, which as you said is rare but not that unlikely.

Furthermore, that's only the probability for the same weapon dropping 4 times in a row in exactly 4 runs. If you have 4 weapons dropping in a row out of the 10 times you have cleared t9, for example, the probability is going to go up significantly, because those run of 4 in a row can happen anywhere.

I don't have the mathematical skills to compute the exact probability for these more complicated scenario, but a quick simulation says that for 10 runs, the probability for 4 weapons in a row is about 1 in 125. After 20 runs, it is close to 1 in 50, and you are more likely to have seen 3 consecutive weapons in a row (16%) than to have seen no weapons in a row at all (10%). After 20 runs, I would be pissed off but not surprised to even see 6 weapons in a row (1 in 5000 chance).

[Dwill]

A token system would work very easily.

Clear Turn 6 and get a drop? No token
Clear turn 6 and get no drop? token given upon exit
Take 4-8 turn 6 tokens or whatever seems applicable to trade for one piece of Turn 6 gear. If you cleared it for 2 months without a single drop you've by all rights earned at least one piece of something you want from it. If you get the drop you wanted sooner, cool you can buy something for an alt job to help your group or a piece of gear to vanity.

Just make each turn have its own token that only buys things dropped from that turn. Put the npc in the intermission map we get dumped into between turns or something. Ancient Allagan Vending machine

Something like this actually makes a lot of sense. Somebody clearing often shouldn't be penalized as hard as they are now if they have unlucky RNG. People can say that RNG is RNG and that's true but these people can't deny that it is quite frustrating to not see loots weeks on end and seeing someone doing it for the first/second time and get what you were aiming for.

Actually it wouldnt work, because we already have SOLD gear as the alternative to use, thats why its there to fill in the gaps. People are just being greedy and not looking at the bigger picture, there is an option, you are just refusing to accept it. Upgrade is an upgrade, thats how its always been, refusing an upgrade is just idiotic, get the alternative item, use it.

A Summoner in full Soldiery gear doesn't even meet the accuracy cap for T5. Try again. Soldiery gear is good to complement some High Allagan but it is worthless all on it's own if you raid the Coils.

A system like Madoka proposed can easily be balanced to reward both the lucky and the unlucky without making everyone BiS in 2 months. It would make people much happier than what we have now.

[Ladon]

Actually it wouldnt work, because we already have SOLD gear as the alternative to use, thats why its there to fill in the gaps. People are just being greedy and not looking at the bigger picture, there is an option, you are just refusing to accept it. Upgrade is an upgrade, thats how its always been, refusing an upgrade is just idiotic, get the alternative item, use it.

This is nothing more than the poor result born from the terribly thought out system we currently have. This whole alternate gear business bought from alternate currency has completely thrown risk/reward out the door which is an entirely separate issue on its own.

Tomestone gear alternatives are not a proper solution. They are a symptom of the much larger overall itemization problem ARR has had since day 1. It is simply not working and has really done nothing but created a terribly frustrating and boring endgame.

[logicallysynced]

Our brd doesnt have his Bow yet... and we have been clearing since like May.... But he does have 3 other Coil Weapons...

Rng is rng.

Like i posted before.. If RNG is RNG, then you would get more vast results in loot drops.

Try it for yourself:-

http://thejourneynetwork.net/loot/rngtest.php

[ananda]

Like i posted before.. If RNG is RNG, then you would get more vast results in loot drops.

Try it for yourself:-

http://thejourneynetwork.net/loot/rngtest.php

Ugh that is not how you use a program to simulate the scenario. The computer can roll the dice millions of times a second, why force us to click for each one? That site will not produce statistically significant data unless you sit there and repeatedly press the button all day.

Yes, of course getting 3 in a row is not that easy that it happens all the time. But our argument is that it will happen 1 time out of X tries on average. If X is 5000, and you have 5000 groups, it expected that it will happen to someone. Not that it will happen to everyone or even to most of them.

If you are interested about data of getting the same drop 3 times in a row. What you need to do is roll the dice automatically 10 times, and call that 1 group. Now have the program roll that way for 1 million groups, and check how many groups have at least 3 consecutive rolls. About 10% of the groups will get 3 rolls or more. So if you see a group gets 3 in a row during the course of clearing t9 10 times, why should you be surprised or suspect that the RNG they use is wrong?

Back on topic, I think SE may introduce token system once the expansion comes out, i.e. for the new raid after coil ended. There will be new classes then, so using the same RNG system would push the probability way out of our favor.

Right now, I suspect it is exactly at where SE wants it to be. To get a specific 8 weapons out of 9, you need on average 25 weeks. Which is roughly the same as the lifetime of the raid, and presumably they want people to keep playing the raid for at least that long. Even if they introduce token system, it would probably be tuned to the same length, perhaps needing 20 clears to get the guaranteed loot from token. Which is pointless to do, because by that time the next raid will have arrived and you can farm the previous one already.

With the addition of ninja, the probability will change, but not by much. Getting a specific 8 weapons out of 10 will require about 27 clears on average. But once the expansion arrives and they add a lot more classes, it will get much worse. If 3 new classes are added, getting 8 out of 13 is much harder and will require 35 clears or so. I think they will change something then. Either make it so that only items that the party can use will drop, or use a token system, or something else.