% for melding materia is broken

[Malusion]

Snip

Hence why I did acknowledge that with my own experience in gathering maps, where I have several times failed once, and will give it untill the very last swing to actually activate an ability (mostly due to being lazy), and yet have only ever encountered the need to activate that ability once, because usually I succeed the subsequent swing after failing.

That said, if you change no variables, the way their PRNG works there MIGHT be some correlation, but not exactly in that way. If you maintain the same percentage chance on a node for several subsequent swings, I do not know if they generate a new seed for every swing, or if it simply moves to the next number in the same seed. The effect of either of those scenarios would have little to no impact on the player's end of it, however.

[Astralos]

your sample size of 30 is meaningless when the population is non-Gaussian. That doesn't stop researchers from making this mistake all the time though, so I won't blame the internet for doing so.

False. Central Limit Theorem dictates that as long as the population is identically distributed, it doesn't matter if the population is normal or non-normal.

http://www.statisticalengineering.co...t_theorem.html

I will admit it is not random. Simply because nothing generated by any current human technology is random.

I do agree with you on this.

[BillyBones]

Usually, I would agree that RNG is just RNG. But in ARR it really is a bit weird and makes me wonder if it truly is random. I've played way too many MMOs in my life and I know what random means. In this game, however, I can't get rid of the feeling that there are some hidden factors behind the "randomness". Also, I've never seen that many complains about RNG in any games I played.

[LalaRu]

Isn't the single try chance that gets higher. It is the chance to get at least one success on a sequence of 'n' tries, that goes higher when 'n' increase. You all said that, but I just have put it in more common words :P

[Tiggy]

Isn't the single try chance that gets higher. It is the chance to get at least one success on a sequence of 'n' tries, that goes higher when 'n' increase. You all said that, but I just have put it in more common words :P

That would be a streak breaker algorithm. Chance of success increases with n failures. This game doesn't have that, but some games do. This is what leads people to think "I don't have a problem in other games." The problem is players aren't used to pure unhindered randomness so they think something is wrong.

[Kuwagami]

Usually, I would agree that RNG is just RNG. But in ARR it really is a bit weird and makes me wonder if it truly is random. I've played way too many MMOs in my life and I know what random means. In this game, however, I can't get rid of the feeling that there are some hidden factors behind the "randomness". Also, I've never seen that many complains about RNG in any games I played.

that's because you never played any F2P. seriously.

You want to know what is a real rigged RNG ? go play dragon pals. Their "RNG" gives a good result after the entire server has spent enough money. Until then, crappy to trash results. Heck they have an event that forces you to pay and it's even in the description of said event. They KNOW their RNG is fucked up. they SAY it !


I have played a lot of F2P, and I know what a broken RNG is. FFxiv is very, very, very far away from having a broken RNG. And seriously, can any of you doubters can give me even one plausible argument about why SE would screw their RNG ? you're not paying for options or bonuses...

That would be a streak breaker algorithm. Chance of success increases with n failures. This game doesn't have that, but some games do. This is what leads people to think "I don't have a problem in other games." The problem is players aren't used to pure unhindered randomness so they think something is wrong.

no not really :

Isn't the single try chance that gets higher. It is the chance to get at least one success on a sequence of 'n' tries, that goes higher when 'n' increase. You all said that, but I just have put it in more common words :P

the key here is "at least one success". On a pure random basis, the probability of an occurrence happening at least once increases the more draws you do.

Basically, you have more chance to get at least one good result by repeating the tries even more.

As an example, with a probability of 1% :

1 try : 1% chance to have one good result
69 tries : 50% chance to have at least one good result. could be more. But the only fact is that you have "only" 50% chance of failing 69 times in a row with 1% probability of success.

[Astralos]

That would be a streak breaker algorithm. Chance of success increases with n failures. This game doesn't have that, but some games do. This is what leads people to think "I don't have a problem in other games." The problem is players aren't used to pure unhindered randomness so they think something is wrong.

That's not what she's talking about.

[Staris]

population is not identically distributed.
if you have a 76% chance to succeseed 24 % would be above and 76 % would be below