% for melding materia is broken

[Barboron]

the probability is less then .1% shouldnt happen 3 times

thats not a % of success rate at all

remove % from the equation and label it for what it is, pure dumb luck, or fix it.

How eh...did you come up with <0.1% chance of that happening?

From actual probability calculations you had a 20.5379% chance of this situation occurring, and it did.
You know what that means? First, don't try do probability. Second, you got unlucky. RNG is RNG, just because it happened to you that doesn't make it "broken".

[Sadana]

I'm going to just wish that SE would change the percent chance of success to no less than 50% on the worst possible meld (that 5th overmeld, no matter the grade of materia.) It's still a chance you won't make it, but it doesn't leave you wishing you had never played this game (which the lower chance of melds do). And pointing out it was worse in 1.0 only shows that both suck, not that 2.0s system is somehow awesomely great just because the other way was worse.

[Tiggy]

I'm aware of that, I'm talking about getting the same end results from five different sequences that were done one after another, you may seem them unrelated because the sequences were different, I don't.

This is why it's a fallacy on your part. They are entirely unrelated. You refusing to accept that fact doesn't change that they are indeed unrelated.

This is the mistake many people make with this game. They assume streaks are indicative of a broken system when they are only indicative of any random system that's ever existed. The term gamblers fallacy exists solely because of the human nature to make these mistakes. That is not some coincidence.

With probability being what it is unless it's 0% or 100% there are chances that anything can happen. When someone complains due to a NQ when they had 99% I always have to laugh at their incredulousness. 99% is not a guarantee and no amount of anger due to getting an HQ is going to change the fact that you had a 1% chance to fail and you finished the synth anyway. Take some personal responsibility and accept that you moved forward accepting that chance to fail. This is how probability will work always.

People need to accept RNG for what it is and stop trying to act like it should work just because you have a "high number".

[MeiUshu]

You should have tried to learn at school

sorry to burst your bubbles Adler but Fawkes is right though. it means just about that if you repeat the same action for 100x you get a chance of hiting the nail 41 and fail 59 ...that is what 41% means, wheather your like it or not, saying to someone to go to school is kind of strange coming from somone that in fact must have forgotten to do so, you sure could use some lessons.

Equally though, if I had to do it a 100x and fail 59 I would rather wait that my pros would be slightly better then the odds, just me though

Mei

[Woggers]

This is why it's a fallacy on your part. They are entirely unrelated. You refusing to accept that fact doesn't change that they are indeed unrelated.

Exactly!

So you have 41% chance of success, so that means at the percentage on average you're gonna fail more than you are gonna be successful at melding. I think it's working as intended.

[Fawkes]

How eh...did you come up with <0.1% chance of that happening?

From actual probability calculations you had a 20.5379% chance of this situation occurring, and it did.
You know what that means? First, don't try do probability. Second, you got unlucky. RNG is RNG, just because it happened to you that doesn't make it "broken".

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i...hance+14+times

all failures 0.06193%

And the OP said that happened to him 3 times.

[ispano]

sorry to burst your bubbles Adler but Fawkes is right though. it means just about that if you repeat the same action for 100x you get a chance of hiting the nail 41 and fail 59 ...that is what 41% means, wheather your like it or not, saying to someone to go to school is kind of strange coming from somone that in fact must have forgotten to do so, you sure could use some lessons.

Equally though, if I had to do it a 100x and fail 59 I would rather wait that my pros would be slightly better then the odds, just me though

Mei

No, it means each individual attempt has that chance. What Fawkes was saying is that people expect to get 41 successes if they do 100, which is false.

[Codek]

[Fawkes]

No, it means each individual attempt has that chance. What Fawkes was saying is that people expect to get 41 successes if they do 100, which is false.

Keyword "expect".

I was not saying the actual outcome would be exactly 41 every time.

[ispano]

Keyword "expect".

I was not saying the actual outcome would be exactly 41 every time.

And so you should not "expect" it either.