% for melding materia is broken

[MilesSaintboroguh]

Come back when you try to meld materia with a 94% success rate and fail 3 times.

[LunarEmerald]

Not broken. It can happen. It's called being unlucky.

[Keeff]

the probability is less then .1% shouldnt happen 3 times

thats not a % of success rate at all

remove % from the equation and label it for what it is, pure dumb luck, or fix it.

[Dgsoil]

the probability is less then .1% shouldnt happen 3 times

thats not a % of success rate at all

remove % from the equation and label it for what it is, pure dumb luck, or fix it.

You obviously don't understand how probability works at all. And you are being fooled by your own point of view, the success rate won't change just because you attempted it multiple times in a row, each time the success rate will always be 41% vs a failure rate of 59%, even things with an astonishingly low probability still happen anyway. The probability of getting a royal flush is like 0.0032% yet if you play poker chances are you've seen it at least once if not more happen.

Edit: Also since an actual developer has already responded about this asinine line of logic before: http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...34#post2310334

[Gramul]

Sense we're on statistics, here's a trick some of you might know.

always in a row

Well, yeah. Once a sequence breaks, it's no longer a sequence.

[Alukah]

To sum up. (You roll, you fail, end roll)(You roll, you fail, end roll)(You roll, you fail, end roll) ect....
it's not. You roll, You fail, You fail, You fail, You fail, You fail, end roll. your failures are not in a row.

I'm aware of that, I'm talking about getting the same end results from five different sequences that were done one after another, you may seem them unrelated because the sequences were different, I don't.

[Haibel]

I'm aware of that, I'm talking about getting the same end results from five different sequences that were done one after another, you may seem them unrelated because the sequences were different, I don't.

What I'm saying is once the system tells you that you fail. that is the end of the sequence. all attempts after have no bearing on the previous.
doing it a bunch of times in a row is not going to improve your odds of hitting a positive result.

[Alukah]

What I'm saying is once the system tells you that you fail. that is the end of the sequence. all attempts after have no bearing on the previous.
doing it a bunch of times in a row is not going to improve your odds of hitting a positive result.

Say you could see the actual number, say you roll a 55 out of 1000 five times in a row, but each roll was unrelated to the previous, would you really say there's nothing wrong with the PRNG picking the same result five times in a row? (I'm not saying this was the case, just an example) I wouldn't blindly rush to defend the PRNG they use when we don't know much about it, we only know the really curious results it gives us.

Note, I'm not the kind to chase ghosts, but their PRNG is far from perfect, there's no such thing as a perfect PRNG.

[Tiggy]

I'm aware of that, I'm talking about getting the same end results from five different sequences that were done one after another, you may seem them unrelated because the sequences were different, I don't.

This is why it's a fallacy on your part. They are entirely unrelated. You refusing to accept that fact doesn't change that they are indeed unrelated.

This is the mistake many people make with this game. They assume streaks are indicative of a broken system when they are only indicative of any random system that's ever existed. The term gamblers fallacy exists solely because of the human nature to make these mistakes. That is not some coincidence.

With probability being what it is unless it's 0% or 100% there are chances that anything can happen. When someone complains due to a NQ when they had 99% I always have to laugh at their incredulousness. 99% is not a guarantee and no amount of anger due to getting an HQ is going to change the fact that you had a 1% chance to fail and you finished the synth anyway. Take some personal responsibility and accept that you moved forward accepting that chance to fail. This is how probability will work always.

People need to accept RNG for what it is and stop trying to act like it should work just because you have a "high number".

[Woggers]

This is why it's a fallacy on your part. They are entirely unrelated. You refusing to accept that fact doesn't change that they are indeed unrelated.

Exactly!

So you have 41% chance of success, so that means at the percentage on average you're gonna fail more than you are gonna be successful at melding. I think it's working as intended.