Atma disappointment social help thread. For those with no luck.

[AmyNeudaiz]

You're still statistically wrong, the more you do of something the more chances of you getting that something, doesn't matter what the percent of each time you do something is.

You are misunderstanding the argument.

@Humster, Thank you for the well articulated post. You explained much better than I

[Bizniztyme]

You are misunderstanding the argument.

@Humster, Thank you for the well articulated post. You explained much better than I

I'm sure you're the one misunderstanding. His articulated post, no matter how well it's articulated is wrong.

[Duuude007]

I'm sure you're the one misunderstanding. His articulated post, no matter how well it's articulated is wrong.

Correct, its called the Law of Large Numbers.

A general principle according to which under certain very general conditions the simultaneous action of random factors leads to a result which is practically non-random. That the frequency of occurrence of a random event tends to become equal to its probability as the number of trials increases (a phenomenon which was probably first noted for games of chance) may serve as the first example of this principle.

Look it up.

Gambler's Fallacy

Yes, this is also tied to the law of large numbers. Probability does not change on a per attempt basis. The average of a LARGE number of attempts, however, will become more and more consistent, approaching infinity. That said, you can often get a relatively accurate probability, well before infinity.

A coin flip will not always be 50-50, sure. but across thousands of flips, it will average approximately 50.
A Dice throw will not always be 1/6 chance, but across thousands of rolls, the average value will be approximately 3.5.

[Karnyboy]

Oh how wrong some of you are indeed.

Gambler's Fallacy

[Mysteran]

Um no, thats statistically incorrect. The more you do, the greater your chance.

I think this is the heart of the confusion here.

The way it is stated it can be misinterpreted. They are saying that doing more doesn't mean your chance PER FATE increases. You are saying (as you put in a later post) the more FATES you do, the more chanceS you have of getting an Atma, which is true. It's just still all at whatever minute probability they have it set to.

[Bizniztyme]

Oh how wrong some of you are indeed.

Gambler's Fallacy

You're talking about the chance of each roll, lets say it's a 5% chance, regardless of how many times you roll, you're still getting a 5% chance of getting what you're looking for. I understand that. But....

I'm talking about the number of times you get a chance of that 5%. If you're only doing 20 fates and someone else is doing 100 fates an hour, they are getting 80 more chances of getting that 5% drop rate thus the more you do the better chance of you getting the item. So statistically, Humpster original statement is wrong.

[AmyNeudaiz]

The odds of obtaining something increase with the number of tries but the odds of obtaining something does not increase the more you have done something. 50% will be 50% every time. 50% does not turn into 51% after you fail.

We are arguing two different things this is why I said you are misunderstanding

[Bizniztyme]

The odds of obtaining something increase with the number of tries but the odds of obtaining something does not increase the more you have done something. 50% will be 50% every time. 50% does not turn into 51% after you fail.

Uh....i'm sure i explained that on my previous post. The argument is Humster saying it doesn't make a difference if you do more fates but It certainly does if you do more.

[Khalette]

Am I the only person that sees the flaw in SE's philosophy?

They plan on increasing the drop percentage later. If the drop percentage was fair, why would they have a need to change it?

So, by their argument, it's only okay to have a terrible experience right now. Later, when it's not a top-tiered item, it's okay to make the experience more bearable once the people that have had enough of RNG decide to leave the game. Yeah. That makes sense.

Granted, I would consider it fair if they had the percentage increase for each class that gets it. So struggle through the first one, gain 3-5% high chance on your second, then another 3-5% on your third, etc.

I just think it's ridiculous to say it's okay to put your player base through this right now but not later. If you have to change it, maybe you shouldn't have done it in the first place. Respect your player base. I'm going to do this. Regardless of how difficult it is because other players have done it. I think it's a slap in their face to demand change. A thread like this that's here merely for moral support is fine. It gives people a good place to vent. But I'm tired of people standing up for SE, when SE isn't even standing up for SE. Actions speak louder than words and if their actions are changing a flawed system, what exactly are you standing up for and worked up over?

[Kenji1134]

Its the idea that given a success rate of X, after Y attempts, the probability of have a success is Z.

For example, lets say that the drop rate for Atmas is 1% (X).
The simple math is 1-(1-X)^Y=Z

1-(1-.01)^10 = 9.56% chance of success after 10 fates.
Y = 100 fates, 63.3% chance
Y = 200, 86.6%
Y = 300, 95.1%
Y = 400, 98.2%
Y = 500, 99.3%... Like Yoshi said, it should take somewhere around 300 to 500 fates to get an Atma.

So um... yeah, those guys who "magically" get an Atma after a handful of fates, 10% chance of that, but it does happen.
Likewise people with less luck have to do hundreds to get into the more reliable probability ranges. That said, if you do about 500 fates in one zone, you'd better have an Atma... though I truly pity anyone who end up doing SIX THOUSAND for a single weapon.

Yeah, lets say its a lightning fast 3 minutes to finish a fate and get to the next one. That will take you... only 300 hours to complete a weapon.

And people ask why we dont like this system.