Complain all you want..

[Prototype909]

Instant Gratification to the max!

There's a big difference between instant gratification and a goal which you can actually progress towards.

Example -

A) You're on a job and you're told once you wash 1000 dishes you can leave for the day

B) You're on a job and you're told that you'll randomly be allowed to leave whenever your supervisor feels like it

Your chances of getting Atma after 3 FATEs and 3000 FATEs are the exact same. There's no progression, no sense that you're actually doing anything, just mindlessly pushing forward until you get lucky. That's why people don't like it. There's a big disconnect between checking my achievement progress and seeing that I need 180 or so more instances to get my Lion mount (Progress with a clear goal) and me running into FATEs without any sense of when I'll be finished if ever.

[Allyrion]

Your chances of getting Atma after 3 FATEs and 3000 FATEs are the exact same. There's no progression, no sense that you're actually doing anything, just mindlessly pushing forward until you get lucky. That's why people don't like it. There's a big disconnect between checking my achievement progress and seeing that I need 180 or so more instances to get my Lion mount (Progress with a clear goal) and me running into FATEs without any sense of when I'll be finished if ever.

That's just not how probability works. The exact same? Really?
Of course there's luck involved and I'd prefer a progress I can track as well. But that doesn't excuse making false statements/severe hyperbole.

[SluggySluggy]

That's just not how probability works. The exact same? Really?
Of course there's luck involved and I'd prefer a progress I can track as well. But that doesn't excuse making false statements/severe hyperbole.

Actually, it sort of is.

These are independent events. The probability of drop is unchanged by the number of FATEs someone has done. While we do EXPECT to see that a drop will occur over a sufficiently large sample--in statistics we could only predict this with about 95% accuracy. This means that inevitably someone will fall into those cracks. The chance to get the item is the same no matter if its your 1st or 3000th FATE, and while there is a reasonable expectation that you'd get the drop well before reaching 3,000--there is no such guarantee.

I'm willing to bet you that someone, somewhere, is going to do at least 5 times as many FATEs as you will have to in order to get their weapon. I spent 16 hours on my first drop.

[Moirear]

There's a big difference between instant gratification and a goal which you can actually progress towards.

(...)

Your chances of getting Atma after 3 FATEs and 3000 FATEs are the exact same. There's no progression, no sense that you're actually doing anything, just mindlessly pushing forward until you get lucky. That's why people don't like it.

Exactly. Also, what exacerbates this issue is that doing low-level FATEs has to be the most mind-numbing, boring thing ever. People complained about FATEs required for CT and Beastman dailies being tied into quests, because, let's face it: hardly anybody here actually likes doing FATEs.

Also note how few people actually FATE grinded when they improved dungeon XP in 2.1.

Why? Because FATEs are terribly boring.

[Jonnara]

There's a big difference between instant gratification and a goal which you can actually progress towards.

Example -

A) You're on a job and you're told once you wash 1000 dishes you can leave for the day

B) You're on a job and you're told that you'll randomly be allowed to leave whenever your supervisor feels like it

Your chances of getting Atma after 3 FATEs and 3000 FATEs are the exact same. There's no progression, no sense that you're actually doing anything, just mindlessly pushing forward until you get lucky. That's why people don't like it. There's a big disconnect between checking my achievement progress and seeing that I need 180 or so more instances to get my Lion mount (Progress with a clear goal) and me running into FATEs without any sense of when I'll be finished if ever.

They get a chance to troll people now so they are happy to ignore the points you posted above.

[Pibz]

snip

I don't... just.. what?!
"Your chances of getting Atma after 3 FATEs and 3000 FATEs are the exact same."
Is this your understanding of statistics? So if you roll a dice a 1000 times you'll have the same chance of getting a 1(or whatever the number) as you would on just 2 rolls?... I don't even know what to say to this.

"There's no progression, no sense that you're actually doing anything, just mindlessly pushing forward until you get lucky." Except when you get an item and then another(you get the point), and realize you're progressing?

It's one thing not to like depending on luck or even not liking to grind fates, but this points just don't make any sense.

Also your example says that the drop is controlled by some entity that based on no previous fixed rules determines whether you get it or not as if on the mere whim of his mood- when in fact it is controlled by a fixed chance. There's a difference.

Again bottom line, this content is made for people who like having something to do with no weekly/daily restrictions and that takes a long time spent to achieve, some of these people will even be getting more than 1 of those weapons. People who have been asking for this for quite a while.
This piece of content does not block you from any other, the weapon itself has 2 others on the same range of power, and 2 others on a higher range of power.
So-- you don't have to do it. Stop the drama please.

[IndigoHawk]

I don't... just.. what?!
"Your chances of getting Atma after 3 FATEs and 3000 FATEs are the exact same."
Is this your understanding of statistics? So if you roll a dice a 1000 times you'll have the same chance of getting a 1(or whatever the number) as you would on just 2 rolls?... I don't even know what to say to this.

There's no progress because each time you try to get an Atma, you have the same chance of getting an Atma.

If you try 3000 tries, you have a better chance of getting what you because you are trying more often. But you're not making progress, because nothing you are doing is improving the chance of getting an Atma on the next try.

WoW had this problem years ago, and they fixed it. Every time you failed to get what you want, the odds you would get what you wanted next time improved. So if the drop was 1%, next time it would be 1.1%, then 1.2%, etc. There is progress even if you're unlucky.

[ZanderMist]

I don't... just.. what?!
"Your chances of getting Atma after 3 FATEs and 3000 FATEs are the exact same."
Is this your understanding of statistics? So if you roll a dice a 1000 times you'll have the same chance of getting a 1(or whatever the number) as you would on just 2 rolls?... I don't even know what to say to this.

Actually I think he's right. You're not rolling the same dice, but 3000 dice. So your "chance" would always be 1/6. What you do get is more tries.

[Pibz]

Actually I think he's right. You're not rolling the same dice, but 3000 dice. So your "chance" would always be 1/6. What you do get is more tries.

Edit:
Ah nevermind thought you were agreeing with the other guy xD