Did you update directX? Also try closing all other applications that run in the background. It seems like the game is failing upon initializing D3D (yes the updater also uses D3D). Some applications hook into other applications D3D interface to show stuff like an UI (steam, mumble, etc.) which can cause problems.
I would also forward and open the ports that the updater needs (google ffxiv ports) or the game update will take years.