Forbidden Melding Rates

[WillTheNinja]

You're the victim of a very common mis-perception in probability, the so called 'memoryless' random independent event.

In other words, every time the rng kicks in there is a set probability (lets say 22%), and if it comes up false (so, it was a 'failure'), and you try again, there is still ONLY a 22% chance of success.

Now, it may seem unfair that you got 20 melds that didn't workout in a row, but really, you could get an infinite number of failures in a row, because the probability is memory less, and doesn't care what came before it when it's a random independent event such as this. (Ok, not really infinite since you could make the probability for successive failures would approach 0, you'd get it eventually assuming a continuous infinite time scale, but you get the idea).

That all being said, there is a certain probability that can be applied to determine the odds of rolling 20 fails in a row given a probability of 22% for each event, and it would be relatively low.

[OSUBuckeye4]

You're the victim of a very common mis-perception in probability, the so called 'memoryless' random independent event.

Exactly.

I like to think of it like a roulette wheel.

The previous spins have no bearing on the next spin.


Casinos try to trick/manipulate people into attempting to see some type of pattern by displaying the results of the last 20-100 spins... but, that's not the case at all.

Just because the number 3 hasn't hit in 90 spins, it doesn't mean that it's "due" to hit 3. Nor does it mean that 3 is a "cold" number and you should not wager on it.

Just because the number 7 has hit 5 times in the last 20 spins, it doesn't mean that it's any more or less likely to hit on the next spin. It's not a "hot" number, it's just a number on the wheel.

You have the same probabily of hitting a winning wager on 3 as you do of hitting a winning wager on 7. Previous spins don't factor into the next spin in any way.