80 Durability 100% HQ using all NQ materials.

[Maelwys]

This is my tweaked HQ rotation for 2 Star crafting for 80 Durability only. If you follow the instructions below, the Rotation can NOT fail. Guaranteed 100% HQ now.
Requires 347Craft, 340Control and 373CP(Use food)

Would this still be a completely guaranteed 100% HQ chance if you got an excellent condition after using the first "Waste Not" and had to eat a Poor condition on the first Basic Touch...?
(I make it that with 340 control you would end up just short of the quality cap, but with 342 Control you could close the gap via getting a few extra points out of the other touches)

[Aphraell]

Would this still be a completely guaranteed 100% HQ chance if you got an excellent condition after using the first "Waste Not" and had to eat a Poor condition on the first Basic Touch...?
(I make it that with 340 control you would end up just short of the quality cap, but with 342 Control you could close the gap via getting a few extra points out of the other touches)

Yep!

You can get poor on any of the touches except the last 2 - hence I've allowed for that by using Observe and the timing of the Byregot's. Plenty of other rotations say they are 100% but they are NOT because of the chance of poor touches not being taken into consideration. This rotation if you follow the instructions is 100%.

[Maelwys]

Yep!

You can get poor on any of the touches except the last 2 - hence I've allowed for that by using Observe and the timing of the Byregot's. Plenty of other rotations say they are 100% but they are NOT because of the chance of poor touches not being taken into consideration. This rotation if you follow the instructions is 100%.

Cheers.

I'm not meaning to doubt your word, just still trying to get my head around all the numbers

Using http://xivsim.x0.com/ with that rotation and 340 Control, I make it -

1st Basic Touch - 119
2nd Basic Touch - 137
3rd Basic Touch - 156
4th Basic Touch - 174
5th Basic Touch - 193
Standard Touch - 529
B.Blessing - 1658
Total Quality attained (with no condition modifiers): 2966

The Quality Cap for a 233 Difficulty 2-star synth is listed as 2921

2966-2921 = a 45 "Overflow" of surplus quality from your rotation, assuming that you get no Goods/Poors/Excellents on anything.

If you get a Poor on anything other than the first Basic touch or the Standard touch then it doesn't matter - You can force Blessing to dodge it by dropping Innovation, and the other Basic Touches can just ignore it because you'd already be sitting on a Quality surplus from an Excellent condition hitting a previous Basic Touch. And as you mention above, you've allowed for dodging a Poor condition on the Standard Touch by factoring in the use of "Observe" after Great Strides.

However you get an Excellent Condition on "Steady Hands II" then the 1st Basic Touch will get hit by a Poor, which I think is a 0.5 modifier (assuming that's what Poor conditions equate to) I think this would halve the +119 quality you'd get from that first Basic Touch, which would leave you 59.5-45 = 14.5 Quality short of the 2921 "cap" at the end of the rotation if you don't get any other "good" conditions elsewhere.

Certainly you could use "Observe" to stop a Poor condition hitting either the Standard Touch OR the First Basic Touch, but if the RNG stars line up against you and you may need to use it twice in one synth, it'd potentilaly push your CP usage up over 373...?

If I plug in 342 Control instead of 340 into http://xivsim.x0.com/ then the quality "buffer" you have at the end of the synth rises up to the point where it can completely conteract the loss of quality from that first Basic Touch getting an 0.5 modifier...

It's quite possible that the planner I'm using doesn't quite have the right numbers and I may also be overestimating the impact of a poor condition, I just wanted to double-check this before I commit to levelling up Goldsmith to 50!! Thanks!

[Vortok]

Certainly you could use "Observe" to stop a Poor condition hitting either the Standard Touch OR the First Basic Touch, but if the RNG stars line up against you and you may need to use it twice in one synth, it'd potentilaly push your CP usage up over 373...?

You can't really use Observe for the first Basic Touch because Waste Not is already active. The two main ways to address it is to have enough Control for it to not matter (preferred) or to start with at least one HQ mat if you're super paranoid.

I've used that simulator you linked before. Unless it was updated within the past month or so it is not 100% accurate. It provides a close approximation, but the quality increases it output did not match up with what I got in game with the same Control stat. The early Basic Touches were a few points off, nevermind the later Touch actions. I tried finding the formula, and found one that looked decent, but sadly the equation used was a bit over my head when to comes to math knowledge so I couldn't plug in numbers (to first see if it was an accurate equation) to figure out the bare minimum Control needed in a worst case scenario.


http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...l)-and-a-TOOL-!
That's where I found the a formula if anyone feels like poking around. My math curriculum didn't cover rank 2 polynomes (quick google didn't help, feel like I should be able to read it but alas) so I was SOL, hehe. Also couldn't launch the crafting simulator linked in that post (needed Web 2.0 or something) to determine if it was accurate, either.

[Maelwys]

http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...l)-and-a-TOOL-!
That's where I found the a formula if anyone feels like poking around. My math curriculum didn't cover rank 2 polynomes (quick google didn't help, feel like I should be able to read it but alas) so I was SOL, hehe. Also couldn't launch the crafting simulator linked in that post (needed Web 2.0 or something) to determine if it was accurate, either.

I've actually been using that simulator as well for rotations but didn't notice the Touch Calculator bit (the reason I used http://xivsim.x0.com/ was because that's the one Aphraell linked earlier!)
You're right, it more or less agrees with the first few touches but the later touches were getting substantially more:

Basic #1: 118
Basic #2: 137
Basic #3: 157
Basic #4: 176
Basic #5: 196
Standard: 541
Blessing: 1658
=2983

2983-2921=62 Surplus (which would be enough to weather a poor on the 1st Touch with 340 Control!)

(Incidentally the web 2.0 sim is a bit buggy, it keeps crashing on me occasionally whenever I use Waste Not 2... but unlike http://xivsim.x0.com/ Ingenuity usually wears off whenever it's supposed to!)