Economy in ARR will not be the same due to the 90% gil loss

[Arik]

OP is actually correct. The only thing we are still unsure will be the scarcity/availibity of certain items.

[Huginn]

If i told you that tomorrow, EVERYTHING would be reduced by 90%... including your measurement instruments; HOW WOULD YOU KNOW? other than that i told you it would?
you fail to understand math and economics. also, Atomos gill pump is just like current US policy on QE, and it has roughly the same effect as to purchasing power.

[Seig345]

If you're going to point out reasons not to take the OP seriously, there's no need to point out the MLP stuff >_> We're not all the same...

Take me for instance, I was conservative enough to only name my alt's chocobo Fluttershy. Considering I don't think chocobo names even appear to anyone else (at least for now) I didn't think that was too bad X)

Also, I didn't realize we'd confirmed just how the gil cap adjustment was working... in the last beaten-to-death thread, it sounded like it was still a question of translation and we were still waiting for official confirmation... or did that happen?

[darkstarpoet1]

If you're going to point out reasons not to take the OP seriously, there's no need to point out the MLP stuff >_> We're not all the same...

Take me for instance, I was conservative enough to only name my alt's chocobo Fluttershy. Considering I don't think chocobo names even appear to anyone else (at least for now) I didn't think that was too bad X)

Also, I didn't realize we'd confirmed just how the gil cap adjustment was working... in the last beaten-to-death thread, it sounded like it was still a question of translation and we were still waiting for official confirmation... or did that happen?

no, it's been confirmed that everything in game is going to be 10% of what it is now. npc's will be 10% of that they are now and players will have 10% of what they have now. people seem to be under the impression that is the only thing changing in the economy and everything will automatically go to 10% of the cost, but that is not the case.

there's multiple factors changing in the economy in 2.0 other than the gil conversion so prices will have to find their new selling prices. they will not automatically be 10% of what they cost now.

[Seig345]

no, it's been confirmed that everything in game is going to be 10% of what it is now. npc's will be 10% of that they are now and players will have 10% of what they have now. people seem to be under the impression that is the only thing changing in the economy and everything will automatically go to 10% of the cost, but that is not the case.

there's multiple factors changing in the economy in 2.0 other than the gil conversion so prices will have to find their new selling prices. they will not automatically be 10% of what they cost now.

I agree that, being a player-driven market, it'd be ridiculous to expect people to actually price everything at 10% of what they used to. Prices always flux. You could say they'll be priced lower (especially anything priced over 100 million, naturally), but it's not like there's some static system for figuring out what you should price stuff for, even now. All you do is check what it's been selling for and decide from there.

[Airget]

Segregated servers/potential for player segregation will effect the economy more then the reduction of gil on the market. The game is going to be down for about half a year maybe more maybe less and during that time people will be testing the alpha/beta. During that time players will get a feel of how much gil enters the market and based on their experience they will get a decent grasp on what the cost of items should be based on the flow of gil and what they feel it's worth.

The assumption being made that the price of items won't change is thinking that people won't be playing around with the economy during alpha/beta but that's not the case, the economy itself is going to be figured out before the game is even released and then those who have lots of gil to begin with will realize that even though this materia was worth 1mil in 1.0 because of the current gil flow the logical price for this piece of materia is 100k. Though there is also another variable to take place which yoshida made comment on how certain items may not be as useful in 2.0 so that materia that use to be worth 1mil in 1.0 may only be worth 50k in 1.0 but turning that into 2.0 terms would mean said materia is only worth 5k now.

There really is no need to be concerned how the reduction of gil will effect the economy because the economy is going to be developed during the alpha/beta phase when people gain an understanding of how the new flow of gil will work. So honestly there is no need to be concerned that items will be overpriced or remain the same because that's the price they were in 1.0 because by the time 2.0 hits the economy will already be in place.

[KaiserDrill]

Its quite simple. You put something up on wards for lets say 1m. It goes unsold for awhile. You will drop the price so it sells. 1st month id say will be rough, but if no one has that kind of money, players will be forced to drop their asking price. Nuff said

[darkstarpoet1]

I agree that, being a player-driven market, it'd be ridiculous to expect people to actually price everything at 10% of what they used to. Prices always flux. You could say they'll be priced lower (especially anything priced over 100 million, naturally), but it's not like there's some static system for figuring out what you should price stuff for, even now. All you do is check what it's been selling for and decide from there.

well i was more in the line of looking that if the change happened right now and nothing else came with it then we would likely go down to around that 10% of the current value, but at 2.0 launch we have other factors that will be changing those results.

1. we have a massive influx of new players. with a bunch of new players comes a massive demand for items. we havn't had a demand for low level gear and tools in over a year. the new players will also be coming into the game with no gil so they will not have the pockets we had to pay for stuff so we can't even use release prices as a starting point.

2. we will be going into regional servers for the most part. i know from experience i make alot less gil selling stuff to certain groups or should i say certain time zones. when i sell the majority of the stuff off my retainers are the overnight hours when i am asleep. with regional servers people will have to figure out more of what the new group of players you are playing with are willing to buy items for.

3. with new content comes new items. we will be getting new content and new materials and new items to craft in 2.0 so those new items may or may not affect the demand for the items currently in game. it could make majorly sought after items worthless so the demand for some of the current stuff may completely drop to nothing.

4. the planned changes to materia. yoshi has hinted they may be changing the stats and the conversion rate on materia so those items could increase or decrease in values depending on the changes.

i'm just looking at the big picture is there are multiple things coming at once that any of those by themselves would alter the prices in the market, but as a group the entire market can possibly change. what the changes are we could only guess from here, but there will be many changes in the overall economy that we know of.

i do agree with you on that an item selling for 100mil will be decreased. i don't see anyway around it. i just can't say for sure that item would drop to exactly 10 million. with the changes we do not know about coming that piece could be worth 30million after the changes, but it could also only be worth 1 million. any item up in a free market is always only worth what someone is willing to spend on it. after 2.0 all sellers will have to find that new point people are willing to spend.

[Roaran]

Real free markets never fail. This is a fact, which can only be misunderstood by not understanding what a free market is, it's purpose, and how it operates.

FFXIV is a free market, but it is not real. Markets are only person to person, where trades are mutually beneficial services. This is all thrown out the window with NPCs being able to purchase items. It is not only wasteful, but harmful the economy as a whole. The functionality of an economy is representative of the standard of living in real life, for a virtual economy it is similar to making the game a pain in the ass instead of fun.

Square Enix, unless you want to always be dealing with NPC vendors introducing random quantities of gil into the system and thus be forced to react to each mistake in pricing, simply eliminate alltogether the ability to sell items to NPCs. Those items should be up in the market wards for real market value, no matter how dirt cheap. Even garbage sells at a low enough price.

[Churchill]

The best case scenario: you lose nothing and gil is worth 1/10 what it is now
Likely scenario: players with less gil are at a disadvantage
Worst case: players with more gil dictate prices and markets slowly reach current levels