New lottery info from Live Letter

[Fenril7]

I'm sure SE is trying to make it as fair as they can under the limitations of the current system (why someone who already "has as buyer" a FC house cannot enter for another house for another FC on the same world) but they're not going to be able to cover all the possible exploits for the ward system.

Well then, the next best way is to require each “member” to be a certain level (50) and have at least a company rank of Second Lieutenant.

[Dustytome]

Those who don't win will be refunded in full. Failure to purchase a plot if won will result in loss of the gil (original slide from Nov said it would be half the gil lost so not sure whether they changed their mind or he wasn't being specific about the amount lost).

Skipped the Q&A and completely missed the housing portion! Fairly sure that's still in place since they mentioned FC members bidding on multiple plots could lead to gil loss. The only scenario I could imagine that being is if multiple members won a plot and all but one had to take the hit for not following through with the purchase.

[Divinemights]

The so called FC advantage is all fc members bidding on same plot. It makes sense since this FC is capable of getting so many members contribute to a common goal. They deserve a plot than individual player whose goal is merely origin from ego.

If FC send their their members to bid on multiple plots, that is dumbest move ever because they are throwing away their advantage

[NanaWiloh]

Its best for FC members to go all in on one plot. Spreading entries across multiple plots juat lessen your odds.

[KidHeracles]

Is that really true mathematically though?

Let's say your FC wants a specific large plot in Empyreum. A subdivision is essentially the same as the main division, and there are 24 wards, so you have 48 plots.

It's unknown how many wards will be personal vs FC lotteries. Let's assume that for the first lottery, half the wards are FC lotteries.

For the sake of mathematical simplicity, your FC has enough gil and members for 24 bids.

The scenarios are:

1. Your FC puts all the bids in one plot when the lotteries open. The benefit here is that the high amount of bids may intimidate other FCs from bidding. Your FC could also camp a placard and discourage other FCs from bidding for your plot.
2. You hold off coordinating until just before the lottery closes, then choose the plot with the lowest amount of bids.
3. You put in one bid on each eligible plot.

People have to visit every plot to see how many entries are in each plot. So it's unlikely that the distribution of bids will be equal across all plots.

It's likely that the optimal strategy will differ based on the total number of bids and distribution of bids across the wards. I get the feeling that generally the first strategy will be the one to follow for Empyreum, but the Goblet on Sephirot in Materia, as the least popular housing area on the least populated new world, may find the other two strategies as more optimal.

Who knows enough about probability and game theory to sort this out?

[Shibi]

I get the feeling that generally the first strategy will be the one to follow for Empyreum, but the Goblet on Sephirot in Materia, as the least popular housing area on the least populated new world, may find the other two strategies as more optimal.

Ravana has less people than Sephirot.



For 3... what I think we will see are the multi-gil capped players - the housing primals - will do multiple FC bids in on the property they want over all wards. Unlike FCFS they can't only get one, then miss out on the rest. With lottery they can just take their time and bid on all of them. Chances this way are higher for a win over say using this strategy on an aether world.

Number 1 - I believe - will be used for Emperyum on Materia for large and rich FCs, they will try to scare people off by inflating the number as high as they can, hoping people will move on and enter on other wards.

Number 2 - I believe will be used by the smaller FCs. It's wiser for them to wait and see which is the lowest.

[Nepentha]

Your FC could also camp a placard and discourage other FCs from bidding for your plot.

Stop advising this. Intimidating others from bidding falls under harassment and is reportable to the GMs.

[dspguy]

Who knows enough about probability and game theory to sort this out?

The probability part is easy. The game theory part is not.

I did some math on an earlier thread. There's roughly 50k unique players per server and only 4,320 plots per server. That leaves ~45,000 homeless players per server. Presumably, all would want to a chance to buy a house without having to camp a placard. Adding 1,440 new plots has competition of about 30 players per plot. Of course, not all plots are created equal. We can imagine larges will have more competition than smalls, but to what extent? So, I'll just say we have roughly 30 players per plot casting a ticket.

If your FC of 50 players puts all their tickets in on one plot, they'd have a 50/80 chance of winning that plot (after you factor in the average 30 players competing on any given plot). That's a 62.5% chance of winning a plot.

Instead, let's say you send out those 50 FC members to 50 different plots. They would have a 1/31 chance at 50 plots. That yields a roughly 80% chance*** of winning at least one plot. The downside, if you win more than one, you lose that gil. However, I think most players would agree that even if you paid double for a plot of land, if you get what you want, it is worth the extra expense.

*** 30/31 chance of not winning the plot spread across 50 plots becomes a ~20% chance of losing ALL 50 plots. Hence, 80% chance to get at least one plot.

Honestly, I think it makes the most sense to not buy your ticket until the last 30 minutes assuming your FC is organized enough to pull that off. Go with the plots with the least competition.

[LaylaTsarra]

Honestly, I think it makes the most sense to not buy your ticket until the last 30 minutes assuming your FC is organized enough to pull that off. Go with the plots with the least competition.

I think a lot of people will do just that because you can only bid once and you cannot withdraw your bid and that would apply for personals and FC;s. Personally hoping for a mix of Lotto and FCFS on Sophia where I would like to get a small FC for me and a few friends who have transferred there.

[not_ya_wify]

(think I've caught all the major points now that I watched this part of the Live Letter a second time)

"Each player may only enter the lottery for one plot of land during each lottery period."

Each member of a FC with land purchase permissions will be able to purchase a ticket on behalf of the FC during the same lottery period. This is intentional. With this being a multi-player game, they want the large FCs that have active player communities to have that advantage.

Each entry on behalf of a FC will still require the full purchase price of the plot to be deposited, and the FC will still only be able to purchase a single plot even if more than one member entering for different plots win.

Those who don't win will be refunded in full. Failure to purchase a plot if won will result in loss of the gil (original slide from Nov said it would be half the gil lost so not sure whether they changed their mind or he wasn't being specific about the amount lost).

As of 6.1, there will be 4 ways to purchase: FC lottery, FC first come first serve, individual lottery and individual first come first serve. First come first serve is the same as what we currently have (other than the FC or individual restriction). Each existing ward will be designated as one of these types (subdivisions may be different from the main ward of the same number) but are subject to change each patch based on need. We will be able to confirm what type a ward is in game.

The initial exception: in 6.1, all wards will be using the lottery. If they get feedback indicating strong demand for first come first serve, they will consider designating a few wards as such. They would prefer not to use first come first serve at first because of the potential impact it would create on log in queues. They are looking for players to post their feedback in the forums. Wards would start getting the first come first serve designation when there is more housing available for everyone? I wonder if they're thinking about when new worlds start getting added later this year.

By first come first serve do they mean how it was originally, i.e. you queue and run faster and the first person who selects the plaquards wins or the current system where plots have a random timer and you have to camp in front of a plaquards for days on end spamming buy? I'd much prefer the OG version. That's how I bought both my Large FC house during Shirogane Savage and my
Medium personal house when they added new wards. The OG system was the best in my opinion because if you were well prepared you had a good chance of getting your dream house. Now the plaquards camping seems like a horror scenario and you can't even use the move option anymore to buy a shitty house and then move into your dream house.