Melding - and chance of luck

[Kukulumi]

Hello,

I just bought 20 pieces of tenacity materia, and I melded and I melded, - there was a 17% chance of succes, but none of the 20 sucesseded.

Now, and because Ive melded a little before writing this post, Im suspecting Yoshi P to not being honest as when he says 17% succes.

- When patch 5.2 came out and I was a little lala I heard people saying, "wauv, penta-melding is easy".

And now I cant get a 2nd or 3rd on.

Have something being changed and the tooltips are not exact?

[Doki]

In Japan you can flip a coin 30 times in a row and it will always come up tails.

[LittleImp]

The game knows you're trying to meld tenacity and it's trying to stop you.

[Valkyrie_Lenneth]

It's a 17% chance every time. Not 1/17. It doesn't keep track.

[Kleeya]

Since we are not in a cheap f2p p2w game which try to sell you overpriced "+xx% chances to succeed the upgrade of a piece of stuff" items in the cash shop, i dont see why SE would tell wrong numbers on purpose. This is just how luck and RNG are working, you are not safe even with a 98% chance. Sometimes i succeed a 5% meld in 3-4 trys, and sometimes it take me 50+ of them.

That or you didn't pray RNGesus enough.

[Rilifane]

You have to sacrifice one Lala for every slot you want to overmeld. But since you're a Lala maybe RNGesus didn't accept your offer?
You could try a virgin or maybe a newborn but no guarantees.

I've succeeded first try on the 5% slot and then I NQ crafts with 98% chance to HQ. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don't.

[Barraind]

You will rarely ever see actual success over a moderate period of time match the % chances.

You can replicate that by using the HQ% on gathered mats (the new relic ones are good for that since the nodes never have quality% bonuses on them).

Its only over a significant amount of attempts you'll see the actual be close to the predictive.


You did get very unlucky though, I usually assume ~2.5x as many materia as you'd expect, and it generally ends up being about 2x as many over the course of pentamelding a full set.

[EaMett]

Like people have said it's a 17% every time. It doesn't keep track.
It's a known issue in game design. Percentages always feel like they are lower to the players than they really are. It is most definitely 17%. Some games are aware of this and make it so it DOES keep track and you're guaranteed a proc, say every 5 for 20%. But FF14 does not do that

[Urthdigger]

Learn some probability. If you do an action with a 17% success rate 20 times, there is still a 2.4% chance that all of them will fail. No matter how many times you do it, it will not be a 100% success rate. So long as each attempt has a chance of failure, there is a chance that all of them will fail.

[Gemina]

Like people have said it's a 17% every time. It doesn't keep track.
It's a known issue in game design. Percentages always feel like they are lower to the players than they really are. It is most definitely 17%. Some games are aware of this and make it so it DOES keep track and you're guaranteed a proc, say every 5 for 20%. But FF14 does not do that

With how it is set up now, it could easily keep track adding onto the success rate with each failure.

However, to the frustrated player any success rate no matter how high or low is looked at as a flat 50%.

Some truly believe RNGesus is a true entity; out to bless or smite as they see fit. This is how things are explained such as like blowing up 100 materia when you really need that last meld, while melding the lowest chance with materia you don't need just for shizNgiggles pops on there each and every time.