Quote Originally Posted by Aloise View Post

Edit: This all works under the assumption that you get a fast MP tick and don't need to fill, which is its own probabilistic mess. In general though, I find myself casting T1 less and less as I seem to get fast ticks quite often, and with 310 Piety I'm pretty much always smashing B4 right after B3.
You'd be correct to assume the maths of Thunder is a mess considering it's a DoT spell so it gets a bit more from Spell Speed and we stack it like no one ever was

I also have a question. You are betting on the quick MP tick which is based on luck because you can't control the server ticks while you say Thunder is luck based. That's pretty much the same thing. The only problem if you wait for 2 seconds for example for that MP tick is that your B3 is 176.4 Potency. 1.86 GCD (for me) + 2 seconds delay = a PPS of 45,70. B3 + T1 is a PPS of 115,16 with an extra bonus of a proc chance of 46.8559% exactly. So anything that involves casting B3 and being OOM and wait for a tick is a really bad idea. I did just check if you do the double 4xF4 with initially full MP that you'll be fine At least, you'll never be able to convince me the risk is worth it especially you need to be on the Leylines the entire time.

I'll also point an example that happened to me in the past back in 2.4 crafting. Back then you needed 1 Piece by Piece + 4 Careful Synth II to complete a craft so it was 5 steps. You could also use a "riskier" rotation and have 1 Piece By Piece + 2 Rapid Synth + 1 Careful Synth II to complete the craft. Rapid Synth is 80% chance so you had a chance to fail and if it happened you'd have to finish the item in 5 steps. Most the time however it required 4 steps and it made it easier to HQ. Adding RNG was beneficial and it kinda feels the same on Thunder right now.

You can be defeatist and say you'll never get procs on Thunder I or Thunder 3 Procs. Thunder 3 Proc willl always be a superior spell than Fire IV regardless the situation. Fire IV is 529.2 on a 3 Second GCD. Thunder 3 Proc is 745.5 Potency on a 2.5 GCD. No matter how you see it, it is 216.3 Potency higher. 0.5 second shorter to cast. Even if you clip 5 DoTs, it would be 535.5 Potency, it would still be 6.3 Potency higher but still 0.5 second faster. Spamming a Thunder 3 Proc right after you got one is pretty silly so you do need to keep track of that buff and that DoT you have but the BLM rotation is pretty silly and easy to begin with. Even if you can't math it out at 100%, Thunder will always come on top. Thunder III Proc is 56.96% chance of at least getting a new proc. The odds are good enough that it is worth to use the spell and not ignore it.

You also forgot that our Enochian is better with 3 cycles. Doing double FireIVx4 results of needing a 4th cycle. It would worth to constantly have it if we could do it while keeping Thunder and it won't happen lol. You might also think when you'll have enough Spell Speed to do F3 > F4x4 > B3 all the time is better and by lasting 15 seconds per cycle that 4 cycle will be the way to go. Unfortunately in reality it will never. You'll have to deal with mechanics, you'll lose 1 second and it will screw you completely.
http://imgur.com/S0JARSk There is a reason why this picture is out. It will be bound to happen that one day that one AoE will be centered on your Leylines and it's quite frustrating to deal with it but its the reality. That's like asking a monk to hit 100% of his positional on a fight like T11 for example. It can be possible but the odds are that you'll eventually miss a few because you're gonna get hit by a mechanic and you won't be able to move much.

You can also say that you can do it because you farm the raid tier at the moment but that kind of mentality would make the player a weak raider. Your goal is to get to farm the raid tier and before that you'll need to clear the content and in raid content there's no DPS wall or check until you hit the enrage. The moment you hit an enrage wall is the time you need to have few strats that implies a bigger risk for the raid for a DPS gain. Until then, it is always better to play safer and practice the mechanics. There are players that exists that deal insane DPS but they don't have that raider mentality and those players aren't in top tier raid groups. Most the time they'll be in situation where the BLM will dislike the idea of using Apocastasis or Eye for an Eye because it is an offGCD so you lose time for DPS. I can tell you in progression it was well worth all the Apocastasis on the Main Tank on A4S

I do plan on making a compilation of openers Monday. I do think its time to update that because Spell Speed does open new openers and I'll show my concerns on it but anyone is free to use double F4 on LL if they desire like any BLM is free to stack Determination over Spell Speed. I do have to leave for the day so I'll bid you farewell for now