Roll-squatters, Loot Time Limits and those who never roll.

[Fynlar]

if you look at peoples rolls you wil occassionallyl see people rolling the same numbers though even if there not the winning rolls.

Did you just start playing last week? Who hasn't seen identical numbers rolled on items? Or.... maybe you just don't pay attention.

I always look at the results on lots (even on stuff I don't want) and again, I have never seen this once. Again, pics or it didn't happen. No, I've been playing ever since 2.0.

[MilesSaintboroguh]

The fact that you can now see whether players have lot or passed is a start, but it's still not good enough. You don't even know if the players have even passed, so here's the solution:

You should be able to see everyone else's lot result, whether they have passed, or needed or greeded:

To explain:

Players SHOULD be able to see whether people have rolled for the loot, or passed on the loot, ESPECIALLY IF THEY NEEDED OR GREEDED ON THE ITEM.

Furthermore, if the player hit greed or need, you should be able to see everyone else's lot results.

In other words, exactly as FFXI had it.

Or do what I do; lie about your roll result.

[Knahli]

My loot list is near the lower corner of my screen and I miss it every now and then. I don't do so intentionally.

[Pells]

Did you just start playing last week? Who hasn't seen identical numbers rolled on items? Or.... maybe you just don't pay attention.

This isn't too different than the Identical Birthday paradox.
For N people rolling out of 99 possibilities, the chance of seeing at least two identical rolls would be
P=1 - 100! / [100^N * (100-N)!]

If identical rolls were possible, the chance of seeing an identical roll with four people is about 6%.
With eight people, the chance becomes roughly 25%.
With 24, the chance of seeing at least one identical roll becomes a whopping 95%.

We should be seeing this happen all the time if it were possible.

[AllegroSymphonic]

I tan out and be productive for 5 minutes or so.
Maybe refill my coffee... Catch up on an anime....

I might need to redefine "productive" but if someone wants a wait-off, I've got all day baby.

I do the same thing. If I notice theres a squatter i sit my butt down and get out my 3ds. I aint missing out on that Chest Token from M4.

[Dzian]

This isn't too different than the Identical Birthday paradox.
For N people rolling out of 99 possibilities, the chance of seeing at least two identical rolls would be
P= 100! / [100^N * (100-N)!]

If identical rolls were possible, the chance of seeing an identical roll with four people is about 6%.
With eight people, the chance becomes roughly 25%.
With 24, the chance of seeing at least one identical roll becomes a whopping 95%.

We should be seeing this happen all the time if it were possible.

your maths is flawed, firstly you're not factoring the difference between need/ greed rolls, or folks that pass on loot.

also the likelyhood of 2 people rolling an identical number between 1-99 equates to 1.01% multiplied by (n-1) where n equals the number of people rolling. so in a party of 4 there's a 3.03% chance 2 people would roll the same number.. thus in a 24 man roll assuming all 24 hit need, there's a 23.23% chance 2 people will have an identical roll.

another way to look at it. is if 23 people have need rolled on an item, void ark minion for example then at most 23 of the numbers between 1 and 99 have already been rolled, thus the 24th person to roll has a 23/99 chance as rolling an identical number to someone else and a 76/99 chance that his number won't match anyone elses

[Pells]

your maths is flawed, firstly you're not factoring the difference between need/ greed rolls, or folks that pass on loot.

also the likelyhood of 2 people rolling an identical number between 1-99 equates to 1.01% multiplied by (n-1) where n equals the number of people rolling. so in a party of 4 there's a 3.03% chance 2 people would roll the same number.. thus in a 24 man roll assuming all 24 hit need, there's a 23.23% chance 2 people will have an identical roll.

another way to look at it. is if 23 people have need rolled on an item, void ark minion for example then at most 23 of the numbers between 1 and 99 have already been rolled, thus the 24th person to roll has a 23/99 chance as rolling an identical number to someone else and a 76/99 chance that his number won't match anyone elses

Yes, to get twenty four rolls, you would need all twenty four people to roll. Need/Greed/Pass would lower the chances.
But even at 8 rolls, the chance is 25%. You'd be seeing it at least twice a week if all you did were to join a pony farm instance once or twice a day. Unless people are joining farming parties and passing on loot...

The math also isn't flawed. What you did above would also need to be multiplied by all the possible permutations of two identical rolls out of twenty four. That is, they could have rolled first and second, or first and third, or first and fourth, or nineteenth and sixth.... etc.
Further multiplied by the possibility that more than two people could have identical rolls. Three people rolling the same number, or four, or five.... Or two people rolling one identical number and two other people rolling a different identical number. And so on.
But yes, I got the formula wrong; I forgot to subtract from 1. The formula I gave was for the chance of nobody getting identical rolls, which is a lot simpler to calculate. I'll have to edit it.

The chance of seeing no duplicate rolls for twenty four people, all rolling out of 99 on the same item, is about 5%. Assuming identical rolls are possible.
This would be (99/99)(98/99)(97/99)...(78/99)(77/99)(76/99).

This means that the opposite condition, any number of duplicate rolls, would have a 95% chance of occurring.

[Dzian]

This means that the opposite condition, any number of duplicate rolls, would have a 95% chance of occurring.

Your maths is still flawed.
For simplicity lets assume person 1 rolls 1
Person 2 rolls 2. Person 3 rolls 3 etc etc
Up to person 23 rolling 23.

What you're saying is basically that the 24th person to roll has a huge 95% chance of rolling a number between 1 and 23. And thus seeing a double roll.
Yet only a 5% chance of rolling any number between 24 and 99. Which in no way adds up.

[NovaLevossida]

I never do it on Alexander, but I tend to never loot after the Void Ark's second boss, so people can't leave after getting their lot and if we're fast enough we start the next boss with the loot pool at 30 secs aprox, then when we engage I loot, but they can't leave because we're in combat.

I hate early leavers >_>

I believe this would qualify as harassment even if you can't prove it in-game. Terrible.

[Pells]

I never do it on Alexander, but I tend to never loot after the Void Ark's second boss, so people can't leave after getting their lot and if we're fast enough we start the next boss with the loot pool at 30 secs aprox, then when we engage I loot, but they can't leave because we're in combat.

I hate early leavers >_>

I believe this would qualify as harassment even if you can't prove it in-game. Terrible.

The restriction is on kicking players with a loot roll up or while in combat. Anybody who wants to leave still can: either without that loot roll, or by waiting 30 seconds into combat for the roll and then just dropping mid-combat.