Safat is off by about 10 hours like as nandi
I have had first death pops of several 3.0 s ranks at 51-52 hours - KB and BoP mostly. I have had few pale rider pops at 55-57 hours after maint. We've had like 58 hour Gandarewa (which I was asleep for) so I know the post maintenance is in the range of 50-55 hours but it may be as low as 48 hours although I honestly doubt it. I have yet to see anything below 51-55 hours. Although I'm still collecting data. For me I consider Bird/Pale/KB open at 51 hours but Leucrotta/Senmurv/Gandarewa at 55 hours. I havn't seen much go over 100 hours exept when waiting for like the 5th cerf's up or trying to get a hinterlands map. So 100-120 hours does seem to be the max.
The earliest confirmed post first pops I've had are at least 5-6 confirmed 85-87 hour KB/BoP/The Pale Rider (I was the one that popped KB and BoP on at least one particular cycle). The earliest pop of Gandarewa I have is 92 hours and I was talking to the person that was trying to pop him at that moment). I've had one Leucrotta pop while I was alseep at under 100 hours (97-98 hours iirc). The earliest Senmuv I've witnessed was 108 hours just because how rare that bloody fate is (we started the first fate at around 92 hours). Based on the pops I've seen I consider KB/Pale/BOP open at 85 hours and Gandarewa/Senmurv/Leucrotta open at around 92 hours under normal pop conditions.
They made it a deterrant to regularly spawning 3.0 S ranks just by making it a multi-day affair. I usually have luck with Leucrotta around 120-130 hours but rarely before that x_o ANy spawns before 122 hours are solely some other guy's efforts. KB can pop at 85 hours or it can pop at 130+ There's a few older posts where we were sharing spawn data. You'll find a few references to some of the earlier spawns.
I personally havn't seen any spawns take longer than 144 hours now. I have seen at least one 142 hour of something recently. I stopped collecting data on how late it can pop since I have yet to see anything go over 144 hours. I still do look at data to see if it's popped earlier than anticipated (92 hour regular pop Gandarewa was the last one to surprise me)
As far as I know yes. One of the people that helps out with S popping thinks there's weather conditional to it I forget if it was blizzard or clear/fair but I don't think there is. If he's gone missing he probably has at least a day left. Guise says they go missing at around 107 hours. My guess is it caps at 144 (it could be higher! 0 the horror!) so... there's probably close to 40 hours he can be 'missing' on ariyala.
I try not to fly too high up when I'm trying.
Edit: And someone pointed out in my group as we fish for zona... that we had a senmurv unde 100 hours last week. It's still within my expected range the only question is if he opens earlier or fates before he opens counts (like Garlok popping after like 15 hours of non rain) It makes my head hurt :<