So what's the math/logic behind the percieved discrepencies between % and actual rate

[Kosmos992k]

Roll a dice with 100 sides and I swear to you you'll very rarely get that 5% be it negative or positive, even less chances to get 2 in a row. And look at the materia system. 33% means you should in theory win 3 times out of 10 but failing 20 times in a row is obviously a problem no matter how unlucky you are. Seeing the high number of people fail the same amount is obvious that the system cheats itself.

In my opinion, consider the amount stated to be about 10% to 20% lesser than what it states.

I'm sorry, and I mean no disrespect, but you are completely wrong.

Each individual 'roll' of the die is a separate random event, so your chance of rolling 1 on a 100 sided die is 1% the first time you do it, and the second, third, fourth..., the 1 millionth, etc... The chances of a sequences of 1's occurring is lower and you can calculate that %chance based on the number of 1's in the sequence vs the number of other possible outcomes. But the thing is, it's still possible that it could happen, it's just more and more unlikely.

33% doesn't mean that in theory you should win 3 out of 10, 10 is a small sample of 100, even with 100 tries, you may get 33 out of 100 (33%) but that's only one possibility. Statistically over a very large sample (1,000,000s of events) a 33% chance will be borne out, but not necessarily over a shorter sequence of 10 or 100 events.

This is why a 1% drop rate is often seen to be so miserly. Over the entire course of play for all players, that item drops at 1%, but any individual player could go several hundred attempts before seeing the drop happen, while another could get it on their first try.

[Myrhn]

Is funny people remember clearly those 95% miss here and there but forget those 2 HQ in a row with 15%

[Iagainsti]

Is funny people remember clearly those 95% miss here and there but forget those 2 HQ in a row with 15%

Confirmation bias

[Mycow8me]

your asking for math and logic for RNG. Closest thing you will get is statistics...

[Iagainsti]

The percentage of this game is clearly not what it states and its been frustrating ever since the start of FF14. I assume the game was designed to appear favorable but is in fact a gil or time sink, hidden by ''probability''.

33% means you should in theory win 3 times out of 10 but failing 20 times in a row is obviously a problem no matter how unlucky you are. Seeing the high number of people fail the same amount is obvious that the system cheats itself.

Congrats to the North American Public Mathematics Education Program.

[Mycow8me]

Are we just throwing statements into the wind or does someone have data that actually proves "Seeing the high number of people fail the same amount is obvious the system cheats itself?"

[_slowpoke_]

The percentage tends to normalize over a larger sample of attempts that will produce a number that reflect the percentage rate.

That's called the Law of Large Numbers, btw.

your asking for math and logic for RNG. Closest thing you will get is statistics...

Um, statistics is logic and math.

unfair RNG

RNG is not fair or unfair. It's random.

Threads like these time and again show that people do not understand randomness, statistics, or basic math. *sigh*

[Mycow8me]

statistics is anything but logic, it only exists to prove that something will eventually happen the only question is when.

You could argue the formulas are logic I guess.

[Eidolon]

I appreciate al ot of the responses here! It makes a lot of sense, just been a while since I studied these catagories so I'm glad to see the way it connects in the background. XD It's easy in the frustration of "**** I just hit my third miss in a row at <insert high percentage here> this is bull****" but a lot of you with a bit more knowledge helped remind me of how the statistics actually work (Taking things less as a cumulative and more as a singular incident wherein the probability of it happening is statistically the same but the probability of that sequence of events might have been statistically lower.)

The wiki article was a great read too. Thank you very muhc for that! o/

[Malevicton]

Here's the devs description of it: http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...Random-Comment