Let's talk about Hunts - a detailed rundown of their assumed mechanics

[Heskett]

Not a single spawn of Gandawera on Coeurl still. Just spent the last day and half gathering scrips for the Seventh Heaven lorebook and will be trying that all day today.

[Steve_UK]

Not a single spawn of Gandawera on Coeurl still. Just spent the last day and half gathering scrips for the Seventh Heaven lorebook and will be trying that all day today.

after watching the video of siren's gandarewa, its near enough confirmed its seventh heaven / aurum ore, make sure you do both nod's.

[Steve_UK]

Leucrotta Just died on mateus, Reason for spawn unknown, apparently people was killing Ampitheatre dragons for the skins/leather, and about 5minutes later is was called.

Guess the RNG is real!

[NoboruSouma]

Senmurv just died on Cerberus at 07:18 p.m. CEST. People told me they were doing dragonskin maps in the Forelands and their Daily Clan Hunts.

So either one a possible spawn? Since it's said "Hunt the Hunter" or so in the description.

[BristolRuss]

Can't imagine it's either of those. Plenty of people will have been doing both (myself included) before they fixed the Fate exp and we had zero spawns.

[Ultimatecalibur]

Let me remind you that the Nunyunuwi hint makes no sense in terms of being linked to FATEs as well, yet there we are.

“Only a sizable battle will rouse the stone soldier to his ancient duty: to fight to the death.”

Nuny's does makes some sense if you connect:
A. Sizable/Large Scale Battle = lots of enemies
B. FATEs scale based on how many participated and if it was completed last time = "Battle" FATEs have more enemies when completed by larger groups
A + B = Nuny may spawn if a ST FATE scales up high enough.

Senmurv might follow the exact same logic for the "pack" part of the Japanese hint.

[Steve_UK]

Nuny's does makes some sense if you connect:
A. Sizable/Large Scale Battle = lots of enemies
B. FATEs scale based on how many participated and if it was completed last time = "Battle" FATEs have more enemies when completed by larger groups
A + B = Nuny may spawn if a ST FATE scales up high enough.

Senmurv might follow the exact same logic for the "pack" part of the Japanese hint.

your saying you need a 'big crowd' within fates to spawn it? or the fate not failing?

[Heskett]

8 hours later and still no Gandawera. Holy shit RNG triggers freaking suck. I just want to spawn him once and get my achievement so I never have to do it again. T-T

[Ultimatecalibur]

your saying you need a 'big crowd' within fates to spawn it? or the fate not failing?

No, I'm saying that a FATE (a possibly a specific type of FATE) may need to spawn/appear that has a certain "scale value" or higher once the respawn timer has completed.

FATEs have a certain "scale value" based on the number of participants in the last instance of it appearing if it was not failed (if a FATE fails post-3.05 it will reset to the lowest "scale value"). The higher the scale value the more HP the FATE bosses have, the more adds spawn, and the more targets that need to be killed or turn-ins needed to complete the FATE.

In order to spawn/make sure a FATE with a certain "spawn value" or higher appears you need to have previously completed it successfully with a group of X or more players that do not necessarily have to be in a party. When it next spawns it will be scaled to deal with the previous group that completed it.

As for the possibility of the FATE type their are 5 types: Notorious Monster (monster face icon), Culling/Battle (crossed axe, sword and spear icon), Collection (bag icon), Escort (shield icon) and Defense (tower icon). Nuny and Senmurv may require the appearance of Culling/Battle FATEs with the appropriate scale values to spawn.

[Vandesaan]

Nuny's does makes some sense if you connect:
A. Sizable/Large Scale Battle = lots of enemies
B. FATEs scale based on how many participated and if it was completed last time = "Battle" FATEs have more enemies when completed by larger groups
A + B = Nuny may spawn if a ST FATE scales up high enough.

That logic though, is why we struggled for so long with Nunyunuwi. We let FATEs fail, because we were busy making them large-scale battles. Only once we stopped letting any of the FATEs fail did Nunyunuwi actually spawn. That's what I mean in that the hint was misleading and that it made no sense in terms of what the trigger actually is.

I still hold that Senmurv is going to be an either
a) really long time variation version of Nunyunuwi that requires an hour of no failed FATEs or
b) Nunyunuwi Extreme, meaning that there's going to be way more than an hour of no failed FATEs required.

If we group up the old world S ranks into categories based on their triggers we get:
Gathering: Croque-Mitaine & Bonnacon (triggers on successful gathering)
Item acquisition: Agrippa the Mighty & Minhocao (triggers when a crystal or shard hits someone's inventory)
Weather: The Garlok & Laideronnette (meet X weather conditions for Y period of time)
Moon phases: Mindflayer & Croakadile (meet X moon phase condition after Y period of time has passed)
Player buff: Nandi & Brontes (permanent buff from a summoned minion and apply a buff from eating a piece of food)
Player health: Mahisha & Safat (player dying and player almost dying)
Fishing: Thousand-cast Theda & Zona Seeker (acquire fish)
Leves: Wulgaru & Lampalagua (initiate leve)
FATEs: Nunyunuwi (do not let any FATEs fail or expire for one hour)

Now out of these categories the ones we know have been reused to far is Player buff (Kaiser Behemoth), Gathering (Gandarewa) and Item Acquisition (The Pale Rider). We've confirmed no global spawns happening like with Moon phases and with Weather. Assuming that there are no trigger pairs this time around, we're left with the following categories that are either reused or not used at all:

Player health
Fishing
Leves
FATEs

Since we've classified three out of six new S ranks, we can either assume these remaining four are being reused, or that there's been reinvention going on and new categories have been made. Data suggests that the implementation of the hunts this time is kinda lazy because of every single new A rank having the exact same respawn timer and not a fluctuating timer per mark like last time, so we can put in doubts about whether they did any kind reinvention. Let's go over the remaining three:

Leucrotta mentions smell of blood and the evolution it has undergone. This is kinda vague, but since we've got four categories left, let's start excluding some of them. There are no leves in Azys Lla, so that's out of the equation. I also highly doubt it is FATEs, mostly because it's the final zone you get to and it is a giant pain to get between all the FATEs. Player health is feasible, but let's look at Fishing for a second. The fish Lungfish has a wording similar to the evolution lines about Leucrotta, meaning that it may have been the preferred food of the cat throughout it's evolution? There might be something there, or we're looking at either a reinvention or Player health. Fish theory for Leucrotta has been debunked by spawns way outside of Clouds weather, keeping it here for historical purposes though.

Bird of Paradise is a tough one. The hint speaks of it loving the flesh and blood of beasts/animals, and would come swooping in if it heard them cry/scream. It might here well be they reinvented something or made a second S rank in the Item acquisition category, speaking of Dhalmels in particular. There's a particular leve in Sea of Clouds which is interesting, "Two Birds, One Culling", which has you bait out predatory birds using animal meat. Sounds familiar? This would put it in the Leves category. It might also be that players are beasts to the bird and that the sound of us screaming as we almost die like with Safat or dying like with Mahisha is what causes it to show up, putting it in the Player health category.

And then there's Senmurv. It hunts the hunters who are currently hunting. I've spent an unreasonable time looking at the available fish in The Dravanian Forelands, assuming that a fisher is a hunter, and I can't see any connection. Senmurv shows up at any hour of the Eorzean day, which could put it similar to Zona Seeker which just requires a Glimmerscale during the right weather. There are plenty of fish like this, but none of them specifically match all the recorded timeframes of Senmurv being killed. That leaves us with FATEs or leves. Senmurv continues to spawn on Excalibur without us knowing why, but it has only really spawned on weekends when there are way more people on, possibly doing FATEs. It was only after the 50% increase to FATE experience we started seeing Senmurv show up on weekdays. It's a flimsy connection, but this was also the pattern of Nunyunuwi way back in 2.x for Excalibur. Leves is also a possibility, but there are no leves that particularly caught my attention, so it may be any leve like with Wulgaru and Lampalagua.