12 weeks of Coil T6+T7 without my loot dropping.

[scarebearz]

14 T9 Kills, Still no BLM weapon...

[Lithera]

14 T9 Kills, Still no BLM weapon...

14 kills is statistically nowhere close to a large enough data set to prove anything btw. How many of the weps have you actually seen? Statistically you should have seen 6/9 weapons after 14 runs or 8 repeat weapons of varying types (Could even be 8 extra WHM staves for example). The expected number of runs to see every wep at least once is 26. There hasn't been 26 resets since 2.2 and it took 2 weeks for a group to clear T9 anyways. The odds of not seeing a certain wep 14 times in a row is also irrelevant by the way since you have the same flat 1/9 shot every week.

[Ladon]

14 kills is statistically nowhere close to a large enough data set to prove anything btw. How many of the weps have you actually seen? Statistically you should have seen 6/9 weapons after 14 runs or 8 repeat weapons of varying types (Could even be 8 extra WHM staves for example). The expected number of runs to see every wep at least once is 26. There hasn't been 26 resets since 2.2 and it took 2 weeks for a group to clear T9 anyways. The odds of not seeing a certain wep 14 times in a row is also irrelevant by the way since you have the same flat 1/9 shot every week.

I get why you are pointing this out, but you are pretty much driving at the main problem here. Statistically under the current system, you are likely to never see the weapon you are after until the next content upgrade comes, lifts the weekly lockouts and then becomes an outdated piece of gear.

And players can't do a thing to improve their odds which is the most frustrating part of it all.

[Lithera]

SNIP

No...statistically you stand a pretty good chance of seeing your weapon. After 14 runs you have a 6/9 shot of having seeing your wep of choice at least once. The 26 attempts is simply the point where all 9 weps should have fallen at least once. Your static will have 8 people...it's expected that you'll see 8/9 weapons in 22 attempts. Does this hurt people who have taken a while to reach T9? Yes. But there's nothing wrong with that. Dedicated people who managed clears early in 2.2 are justly rewarded. Those slower people are also the ones most likely to be most of the way through their Main's relic.

[Ooshima]

My FC mate who just got his 21st T9 kill last night finally saw his BLM staff, lol. Another FC mate on his 20th T9 kill have yet to see his SMN Book. Another of my friend on his 17th T9 kill have yet to see the MNK fist.

Got to continue sacrificing a lalafell every week...

[Zanhe]

I finally got my High Allagan Pantaloons of Healing on my 16th clear yesterday. (first drop for main class, yay!)

Still don't have my crook, nor did we get the staff, sword, spear, or dragoon body.

This is going to get ridiculous if they don't change it in expansion, and will be even more annoying in 2.4 because of Ninja loots

[ananda]

No...statistically you stand a pretty good chance of seeing your weapon. After 14 runs you have a 6/9 shot of having seeing your wep of choice at least once. The 26 attempts is simply the point where all 9 weps should have fallen at least once. Your static will have 8 people...it's expected that you'll see 8/9 weapons in 22 attempts.

22 attempts is for any 8 weapons. For a specific 8 weapons, the expected number is actually 25 runs (since 8 out of 9 times, the last weapon you need will only drop last, after you've seen all of them).

Also, about the probability of 12 weeks of t6 and t7 without seeing any loot for a class. There are 5 types of loot (fending, slaying, aiming, casting, healing). So for each chest probability of not getting your loot is 0.8 (assuming the loots are distributed evenly, I'm not sure if that's true). To fail 48 times in a row (12 weeks of 4 chests each), total probability is then 0.0022%, or 1 in 44,842. If there are 2 million players in this game, and if 10% of them can clear t6 and t7 regularly since 3 months ago, the OP can expect to find 3 other players as unlucky

[ariaandkia]

...the OP can expect to find 3 other players as unlucky

Like me >.>

Several weeks of farming Levi EX.... No healer drops. Then another WHM comes. Tidal buckler drops. I roll 98, other WHM rolls... 99.

Several more days of farming... Mirror drops. 98.... to 99 again.

Then Tidal drops again... 25 loss to 26. (And guy afterwards claims that he had it for several weeks)

And no drops since.

[scarebearz]

14 kills is statistically nowhere close to a large enough data set to prove anything btw. How many of the weps have you actually seen? Statistically you should have seen 6/9 weapons after 14 runs or 8 repeat weapons of varying types (Could even be 8 extra WHM staves for example). The expected number of runs to see every wep at least once is 26. There hasn't been 26 resets since 2.2 and it took 2 weeks for a group to clear T9 anyways. The odds of not seeing a certain wep 14 times in a row is also irrelevant by the way since you have the same flat 1/9 shot every week.

You seem to like seeing yourself type

My post was never intended to "prove anything", though it does show how poor the current RNG dependant system currently is.

T9 is the hardest turn of 2nd coil, as such gives the best rewards, yet those capable of clearing it early on may never see their weapon before it's redundant, due to the weekly lockouts.

Pure RNG + Lockouts is a poor and dated system, weapon token drop for T9 would have been far more suitable and please more people.