Public Service Announcement: The RNG in this game is not biased

[carlos777uk]

Except when crafting, I hit a 10% chance failure 3 times in a row (that's 1:1000 chance) two days on the trot. Added, I crafted 46 items before getting a HQ when the HQ chance was always better than 6% and up to 15%.

World's unluckiest gamer? Doubt it. Spout all you want about stats when the engine works mathematically correctly. This game does not work correctly.

[Sasagawa]

This was a really informative post.

Next is implicit functions for implying the boundary between a number that is random and one that is part of a group or cluster

thanks for the brain food !

[Slate]

please dont bring logic and math to the people, they arent ready

[Quesse]

Lots of information with no actual data to back it up

Ok so you've explained why a perfectly working RNG works perfectly.

What you haven't done is shown that SE's RNG works perfectly.

[Alberel]

Ok so you've explained why a perfectly working RNG works perfectly.

What you haven't done is shown that SE's RNG works perfectly.

This.

OP if you want to prove a point actually do some tests in game and publish your numbers.

Most of us that have an issue with the RNG at present agree that the overall odds (with a big enough sample) match what the game tells us, but to get there it seems to roll long strings of good and bad luck more often than is believable (I say believable because software RNG is inherently flawed and only creates the illusion of being random).

The odds of getting 5 failures in a row on a 70% touch action are 0.00243, which is 0.243%. Now I probably craft a few dozen items in an evening and I see that string of bad luck multiple times in one evening, multiple evenings in a row. With those odds that simply shouldn't be happening.

[Kat_Manx]

Ok so you've explained why a perfectly working RNG works perfectly.

What you haven't done is shown that SE's RNG works perfectly.

So this. Not a single person here believes that a proper RNG doesn't work properly, just that the FFXIV RNG is broken or rigged.

[Slate]

do you have the numbers to prove that SE's RNG is rigged? random is just that random. You could have a 50% chance to get a drop. It's likely it will drop but if the chance always falls on the side where your item doesn't drop, you just have bad luck, which you can't come up with a value for.

[Norbi]

Ok so you've explained why a perfectly working RNG works perfectly.

What you haven't done is shown that SE's RNG works perfectly.

This.
/10char

[verily]

I ran Brayflox 23 times on my alt. When you consider the boss can drop the body or leg armor from 3 sets, that's 6 possible drops. That's about a 16.7% chance for any of the 6 pieces to drop, right? Assuming there's no bias towards a particular set, there's an 83.3% chance the drop will be something other than what I want. But after 23 runs, Infantry Shirt hadn't dropped a single time. Unless I did something terribly wrong (which is highly possible), here's how that looks:



So that can't happen forever, right? Right. The next two times I ran it, Infantry Shirt finally dropped both times. (But I lost roll both times, so there's that.)

I've also recently gone 0/29 on a 22% meld chance, and I don't even want to get into how many tens of millions I spent melding my Obelisk for DRG relic in 1.0. This all isn't to say that I think RNG isn't working correctly, but sometimes it seems to be set up in such a way that it allows people to get extraordinarily unlucky with some things. Unluckier than they ever really should, even statistically. (Allagan Tassets of Maiming for everyone!)

Who knows, though. It is what it is.

[CianaIezuborn]

Thank you for bringing this up but this is an area where I'm not sure how they programmed it. The percentages depend on whether they consider your chance to successfully mine and your chance to HQ separate or combined.

From my observation, it's a single roll, though I've done no substantial testing on this. Leveling up gathering I'd notice a significant higher percent of HQ to NQ items from a 15%HQ/70%Success node than a 15%HQ/100%Success node. Like I said though, simply from observation over small numbers (I usually farm for stacks of 200).

Walnut logs spring to mind as I gathered about 1200 of those as soon as I hit 25 botany to feed carpenter leveling.