everything you have said in regards to economics has been horrible, wrong, or a combination of both based on available evidence and past trends in both virtual and real world economies... you are the last person to tell people to "learn economics".
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they will never base the cost of a NPC bought Item on available gil stores...how many times do you have to be told this.
Let's use the airship tickets as an example... at lvl 50 an airship ticket costs 5k gil, this is because they worked out the formula based on an average lvl 50's EARNING POTENTIAL, not the expected amount they have in their savings, one lvl 40 leve should be enough for your average lvl 50 to make that 5k in roughly 5 minutes. This is simple math they have to use..."if we can expect that the lvl range targeted with this content can make this much money in this amount of time with a reasonable lvl of effort, then this is the price point we will use"... IT would be the height of idiocy to use the rubric of "50 people on these six random servers have 999,999,999 gil so the price for this item will be....50mil gil". No economy uses that pricing structure for obvious reasons.
it is the same reason that goods and services are not priced based on the population available money, but on the market demand and average cost of the good to produce and sell...
You don't even need gil for that lol you can easy make cheap gear and SB and then make good gear and do multiple melds that what i been doing for over 1 week now and i can farm all the items in a matter of a few hours and make enough to try 20-30 times and if i don't get x3 melds i'm sure i have a few x2 that i can sell and make profit and keep the best one then farm again.
Money is pretty much useless for non lazy players for people who are lazy then they going to waste the most gil but everything in the game is super easy to get.
I'll just have to disagree, sure it's unfair to a new server, but the price of oil is a price of oil. You could play with drop rates in your dynamis to make up for the difference in Gil sink to make it more 'fair' to the new server, but in reality your just screwing us older guys.
You know Johnson and johnsons stock rose over 4000% from the 70's to 1999, and is up like 17% since then, is that unfair to the generation that came investing time and money into the stock post 2000?
Some things are not fair, sorry
wait. what the hell?Quote:
Put another way:
Old server > average gil is 40mil per person
I play since beta and I only have one mil left after gearing my blm.
Rather than say "zomG your economics is soooo wrongggg" why don't you show whats wrong about it?
I gave the definition of GDP and linked to a wikipedia article.... I'm sure that's all wrong though. Wikipedia is just a conspiracy to trick the average person into believing things that "they" want you to think, right? The Illuminati are really the ones controlling gil levels!
And I don't think you are grasping the concept of how an economy with billions of gil circulating is different from one with no gil.
Let me put it this way:
There are 2 islands totally separate from each other.
Island A, and Island B
On both islands you can make 1000 gold coins a day
Now on island A, most people have 500,000 gold coins saved up.
On island B, most people have less than 10,000 gold coins saved up.
The supply of chocolate bars is equal on both islands. It takes the same amount of work and effort to produce a chocolate bar on Island A as Island B.
In any free market, Island A will have a higher chocolate bar price than Island B. Why? Because island A is experiencing inflation (note: this is assuming the monetarist view. But even under other theories the same thing would occur)
What do I mean by inflation you say? Well think logically. If in 2010, every citizen of island A on average has 100,000 gold. And then by 2012, every citizen on average has 500,000, it means that the amount of gold circulating in an economy has increased 5-fold. That means that 1 piece of gold is now worth 5 times less than it was...
So apply this to ffxiv.
On an old server having 1-million gil may be equal to 100k gil on a new server (value wise).
Confused?
Lets simplify
You have 100 people per server. Each has an average 5000 gil. So there is 500,000 gil overall in the economy
If you have 20,000 gil you have 20,000/500,000 or 0.04% of the world's gil.
Now lets say you are on another server.
You have 100 people per server. Each has an average of 50,000 gil. so there is 5,000,000 gil overall in the economy
If you have 20,000 gil on this server you have 0.004% of the world's gil. That means you are 10 times poorer than you would be on the "new" server with less gil.
So, by logic,
Lets say SE sets prices for things like airships, dynamis-type entrance fees, crafting materials, etc, based upon how much gil you -CAN- make.
What that means is that if an old server has 10 times more gil than a new one, it is 10 times easier for those on the old server to purchase whatever is being sold.
Put another way, if I spend 1% of my gil on a dynamis entrance fee, someone on a new server would probably have to spend 10%.
In reality, there has been so much exploitation and so many people have over 100mil, that its more like 50 to 100 times easier.
Of course if I -only- did leves, i would be in the same situation as a new player. But I can craft, farm, and gather, and then sell that. Since there is so much gil in the economy, I will always be able to sell my goods for 10 times or more than new servers. Thus I will always have 10 times or more of an advantage when purchasing anything from an npc.
And you might say "nuh uh, the servers will balance over time". But why would they? Players on new and old servers will on average generate the same amount of gil into the economy from the "system". However, on old servers there will always be those billions of gil floating around. So the old servers will always have a massive advantage over new servers when it comes to purchasing anything from an NPC.
I have mentioned many solutions, like diff prices for diff servers, gil sinks prior to new servers, etc. But the chances of SE making good decisions are low, as if they treat one server different than another, people will complain and rage.
I just provided a mathematically based economic explanation of the difference between two servers with different amounts of monetary circulation. If you don't agree, respond in an educated way. Not "ALL LYIESSSSSS"
Stop making real life example and give us example what will happen in FFXIV. No don't even try to bring up how FFXI relic weapon works and how someone will just get it on first day because so far we don't have anything like that.
There are too much IFs and worrying over nothing and please dear god stop bringing up FFXI. What will happen in FFXI or what has happened in FFXI stays there. Give us what will happen at current FFXIV economy.
There are 2 general scenarios.
1. Gil gets downplayed. To avoid problems like dynamis prices or relic weapons they just never implement anything that relies on gil. As a result there is no longterm incentive to store up gil or farm, resulting in a reduction of economic transactions. Ex. People stop selling most stuff.
2. They assume that both types of servers are the same, implement policies that work on one server and not on another, forum rage, mass quits, game economy completely falls apart again (kinda like 4 months after release).
There are other possibilities too. I'm not saying option 1 is necessarily going to kill the game.
But option 2 would severely hurt it. Especially if SE makes decisions based on old servers, and new servers find npc prices too high. I'm going by past experience with SE. They don't know how to handle a game economy. They couldn't pull it off in FFXI and pretty well killed it in favour of rare/ex stuff. And they completely butchered it in FFXIV. The ironic part was that FFXIV was supposed to be an economy-centered game where you could main as a gatherer or crafter.
I do seriously think at some point RMT will unload billions into the old FFXIV servers, especially with the merges. And that will result in serious hyperinflation and long-term destability. Imagine 5000 million gil entered the economy within a week at christmas. Prices for high-demand equip will rise by a lot. People won't be sure what prices are worth, so they will stop selling stuff and buying stuff. Many people who don't buy gil and don't have 50mil+ stored up will be unable to afford anything good. People will quit slowly. And over time the economy may level out. But it will take months or years.
SE will then try to counter inflation by implementing very high gil sinks, and people on new servers won't be able to take part. They will rage that the prices are unfair, quit, etc.
Now what if that happens december of the 2.0 launch? Instant hyperinflation with a new influx of players. And poor choices in dealing with the hyperinflation. Its a very easy way to lose a large chunk of your population right after re-launch. And a very easy way to kill any chance of expansions.
If SE is competent it wouldn't happen. But so far they haven't shown it (at least economy-wise)
So what does different server policies gonna do if RMT decides to unleash trillions of gil into server? hyperinflation is gonna happen anyway lol? since it only effects crafted equipments, it has nothing to do with NPC prices and such.
Also, high demand equips so far has only been raids/primals gears. What makes you think RMT destabilizing market is gonna effect anything?
and before you counter above argument with "OH THEN CRAFTED GEAR IS USELESS", no it's not useless as we've said alot of times, but they are not rare, materials are all over the place, and so is crafter. Everyone can easily farm their mats and make their own, people that doesn't do those will rely on raid gears, as they always have right now.
so my question is.. What makes you think RMT destabilizing market is gonna effect anything (if they managed to do it anyway)?
Also for new player, we have ton of gears provided from cheap NPCs and mini-bosses and raids. So they won't be effected at all. New influx of new players quitting is really out of the question. If they do quit, it will not be because they can't purchase armor from ward.
Again you are comparing incomparable things.
let's take you islands example: To islands that are completely isolated from each other and have no trade... each have the same supply of chocolate bars and the same demand for them... however apparently the mineral wealth of each island is disporportiante, Island A has more mineral wealth in the form of gold than that of Island B, you of course are presupposing that on Island A due to the mineral's relative abundance that it will have the exact same starting value as Island B where gold is relativley scarce, because as we all know what is considered rare by one culture and used as Currency, is considered rare and used by a Culture that has it in abundance (EX: Spain and Mezzo America in). Secopnd you have yep to show any meaningful way in which the economy of Island B will effect the closed system of Island A and vice versa, on top of this you are basing all of your numbers and subsequent terrible guesses that have never panned out on a static currency/goods supply. and this is not an example of inflation. Inflation would be if the was a sudden shortfall of cash or chocolate on either island and demand stayed constant resulting in a increase in the price of chocolate, or a sudden influx of either cash or chocolate driving the value of on or the other down... What you have described is equilibrium pricing in seperated markets, like for instance the fact that in North Carolina, Gas is $3,45 9/10 per gallon, but in California it is as high as $5.00 9/10 per gallon yet the cost of a barrel of crude oil is the same across all markets.
HOW EXACTLY WITH CHARTS AND GRAPHS! do closed economies with the exact same earning potential, and moneytary inputs and outputs and no contact between each other some how magically affect each other and are somehow cpmpletely immune to their own market forces and also WHY would SE adopt the dumbest pricing structure for NPC items ever devised by man. You have so far completely failed to show why SE would want to use dome or the worst buisness sense or why it would be neccessary to balance all server economies at all.
This whole argument is ridiculous. OP originally started by saying that "Fresh Start Servers" would not work because of {insert poorly constructed argument here}.
So what is gonna happen when they need to introduce new worlds because existing worlds are at capacity? Do you think we're going to stay at 10 servers indefinitely, just because SE doesn't want things to turn out the way that Azurymber thought they might back in that one thread? If the game becomes popular and successful, are we all going to run around with server lag so bad because we have 50,000 ppl logged in at one time? No, MMO's add new worlds/servers all the time.
FFXIV economy will always balance out, because the ability to gain money through leves and quests are a constant, and the rest of it is based on supply and demand.
The only thing that will cause the in-game economy to spiral out of control is Gil-sellers. That is the only potential problem here, not new servers.
most people want to have the best gear possible. Thats the point of an MMO, to become "elite" or whatnot. If it wasn't then SE wouldn't focus so much effort onto endgame stuff, and instead create fun mid-level stuff.
If there is inflation, the best gear prices would skyrocket out of the reach of any new player. That combined with a reduction in market transactions leads to people complaining that they will never be able to afford the best gear. That leads to SE doing something.
close economies don't effect each other. But if you have 10 closed servers, all with a different economy, and SE tries to fix them -ALL- because 4 are broken. It will fix the 4 and hurt the other 6. Thats the point. If SE treats each server different there isn't a problem. But if they try to treat an inflated economy the same as a balanced economy, it will have serious repercussions.
Image if you tried applying the current monetary policy of austerity in Greece to the U.S. The U.S's economy would collapse within a few days.
And market forces only work if you have a relative equal amount of currency in all markets.
In other games they usually don't do "fresh starts" and instead let ppl transfer over. If they do a fresh start, they usually have a balanced economy where theres like 1mil gold going in every day and 1 mil coming out. So the new server will balance with the old servers in a few months.
The problem with FFXIV is that old servers are full of botters and exploiters who made 100's of mil.
I explained this fairly clearly.
FFXIVs economy will -never- balance out.
Why?
Old servers currently have lets say 5000 mil
new servers have none
so day 1:
1mil goes into economy, 500k comes out
old server: 5000mil 500k
new server: 500k
a month later:
old server: 5015mil
new server: 15mil
Both servers will increase gil at the same amount on average. But theres no reason why new ones would reach the amount of gil in old ones.
Yes most people want to have the best gear possible, but when one isn't obtainable, they will go for alternatives, which in this game have many alternatives for every slot.
It's very different than FFXI where you need to wear Hagun until u can get SAM relic weapon, in this game u have choice of 3 primals weapon currently, GC weapons, green raid weapon which all perfomrs very closely to each other.
Your scenario only works if best items comes from craftable and triple above melds.
Because we have our own hierarchy in this game, There is no best craftable items unless you double/triple meld it. We will never have best craftable items if it's not melded.
I realize for -them- it will be balanced in the sense of supply + demand.
My point is, if SE tries to fix the OTHER broken economy, lets say via gil-sinks, it will UNBALANCE the non-broken one.
So if server A has inflation and server B is balanced, the policies to fix inflation on server A would -hurt- server B's economy
I don't know how much clearer I can be about this.
Right now the reason triple-meld gear isn't popular is because gear goes from awesome to useless within a few months. If things stay that way then you are right, there probably won't be a serious backlash. But if things stay that way, what will the people who saved up capped gil do? They all saved it up in preparation for relic weapons or something similar.
Even if people don't care about gil at all, if 3 people flood 999,999,999 gil into the economy its going to have a noticeable effect.
At some point there will have to be that "epic" gear that stays epic for years. And that is when serious problems will arise.
And under what assumptions that you think this epic gear will be all gil-based? and even then it wont raise any problem for majority for the players because if it's epic gear it's not something that is obtainable by everyone.
Did people quit or cry because they can't get/afford relic weapon in FFXI? I didn't think so.
Also the reason triple-meld gear isn't popular becauase it takes serious luck to obtain them, that is why you don't see anyone selling it. It is popular, it just so happen to not be available to most of the players, do they want them? i am sure as hell they do, they are very rare. Maybe you can count them as our current 'relic' because triple tier IV will be the best in their slot.
My question is why would SE try to fix the new or old servers at all?
Why would you expect that a server where everyone starts at the same level would be the same as one where almost everyone is at the cap. It should and will be different for that new fresh start server.
Here lets put it this way, Every country in the world has a different economy. Should 1 country have control over what the others countries economies should be like?
All I am saying is that a fresh start server should not be compared to an established server. And that what the economy is on 1 server is not going to be the same on another.
Don't you think if they were to open a fresh start server that they would recognize that? You act like they would just create a new server and totally ignore this factor. In fact, they already do this today with server populations and that is what the merger was based on. Also, they are flirting with the idea of making supply rating based on server.
Anyway, what this OP really does is make a mountain out of a very hypothetical situation, and on top of that, totally makes an assumption that SE would not acknowledge it out the door.
I remember you. You took a break for a while didn't you? I know you probably feel like you're a great addition to any community because when you do post a new OP you strike pretty long discussion. However, it's not long because it's interesting, or very divided, or even remotely intellectual. It usually is made up of ridiculous statements you try to pass off as fact and the rest of the way people trying to let you know how ridiculous you are, FFXI nostalgia driven, or thick. It actually brings back memories to a day where the community was a lot more obnoxious than it is now. Perhaps it is very tragic foreshadowing for 2.0.
Also, I doubt SE would balance anything economically around a single server or group of server's average gil.
They would introduce a price for, say, an epic set of armor. This price would be based on the various ways gil can be obtained, such as from levequests, and how quickly it can be done on average.
It isn't the individual server economies that will dictate future policy.
Again, every new server in every game that adds a new one is a "fresh start server" and it has NEVER been a problem. What do you suggest? Give every player who creates a character on a new server 10 mil and a bunch of items and materials to use for trade? It doesn't take as long as you think for an economy to establish itself, and this is usually addressed by giving current players who want to switch servers a chance to transfer to the new servers. This way you still have people of all levels. WoW has been doing this for years and it has worked fine for them. I've certainly never heard about anoyne complaining that there's a new server with new players on it.
I don't know where anyone could get this funny idea that a new server, especially if you're not playing on it, could ruin the game for you or anyone.
Really? personally attacking me? If you don't like my posts, don't post.
When this game was released I basically said it was probably going to fail:
http://ffxiv.zam.com/forum.html?foru...57471285740#18
And said the same thing in multiple other threads.
I got the whole "DON'T HATE, ITS NEW, THEY WILL FIX IT" thing over and over again. "ITS A HYPOTHETICAL PROBLEM, SE IS SMARTER THAN THAT"
In november I asked ppl to post server populations and predicted that they would drop to 500ish ppl by christmas. Shortly after they stopped showing the server population (and it most likely hit that prediction)
http://ffxiv.zam.com/forum.html?foru...98487503705074
When they decided to charge people -before- new jobs I said it would kill off the population.. it did, and finally led to server merges
http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...-a-horrid-idea
I post the things I post for a reason, and A lot of times they do come true. I might be wrong, but so far I've argued that the game had a bad launch, the economy is a mess, the population would drop drastically, it would take them well over a year to 'fix' the game (most people were saying it would be fixed completely by last christmas), and they would pull the game away from open world stuff towards instanced dungeons. All of those are true or have come true.
So I don't see where you get the idea that I post ridiculous things.
As for contributing:
I've written multiple solo guides, travel guides and gathering guides which have gotten well over 100k views combined. So I don't get why anyone here thinks I'm a troll. I spent hours getting to every corner of the maps so I could give ppl something to find, figured out a way to solo within a week of a bunch of ppl on this board claiming its impossible and the game is not a solo game, etc. What about this stuff makes me troll-like?
Fresh start implies NO TRANSFERS, otherwise its not really a "fresh" start, just a new server. If there were transfers this would not be an issue. So you are correct.
And kindra, you are correct. That is the basic point of this thread.
And I never said SE wont treat servers differently. they might. But the point is that if they do, people on the servers will complain about being treated different than others. It becomes a question of "how do you treat each server equally without making them think the other server is getting an advantage". And then what if they make a mistake and one server gets a massive advantage for a week?
I think the problem is that you are putting this across as fact. "It will." instead of "It could." We don't know what SE has planed and doesn't as far as Gil goes for each server. I know in XI they changed gil prices when the need came around, rusty caps and such. As time went on they changed prices for NPC's. But this was only when the prices were exploited or the need for the items was reduced.
You know I really should have reread that last post before posting this lol.
You didn't predict the obvious. First of all, everyone knew the game was awful when it started because we all have eyes and a functioning brain.
Second, the rate that FFXIV was dying off in terms of it's player base was always very apparent and isn't outrageously shocking to hear by anyone.
Thirdly, the servers weren't merged because they started charging. In fact, the game didn't take that huge of a hit when it started monthly fees. The merger was already in the works and talked about openly BEFORE they started charging. Again, due to the unpopularity of the game and players not wanting to spend their time in a game that won't be redeveloped til almost a year after they were told.
I think that you believe you're a lot smarter than you're not.
The whole argument is flawed. We do not have a real economy that feeds back into itself. Anyone can have tons of excess money and the economy will not be affected, because we do not have a supply-demand economy. All prices are fixed and all items are infinite.
Even if there's no transfers there's really no problem. It doesn't affect you, why should you care?Quote:
Fresh start implies NO TRANSFERS, otherwise its not really a "fresh" start, just a new server. If there were transfers this would not be an issue. So you are correct.
Why hello there, everybody knew it was failing.
http://www.deviantart.com/download/1..._krawky398.jpg
When you "predict" things that are obvious, of course you're going to be right. Are we supposed to believe you're some kind of psychic?Quote:
I post the things I post for a reason, and A lot of times they do come true. I might be wrong, but so far I've argued that the game had a bad launch, the economy is a mess, the population would drop drastically
I'd like everyone to click the OP's username and look at the threads they have started. I promise you.... it's worth it. I'll put a few in here.
Make leveling optional (Yes, you've read that right)
http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...ex.-auto-50%29
Let's make hard raids drop vanity gear instead
http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...f-useable-gear
If you bothered to read the first post you would realize it was a criticism of someone else arguing that leveling should be optional
And if you bothered to read the second post you would realize it was an argument that the hardest stuff in the game should drop vanity gear so that hardcore players have something to work towards, but so you don't get that split between casuals and hardcores like in ffxi. That was argued in sept 2011, when this game was still supposed to be "casual and solo friendly" unlike now.
I have read them and no matter if it was a self proclaimed clever way at mocking power leveling or not still shows the idiocy in your ideals. Also, this wasn't labeled as casual and solo friendly. It was a work in progress that at one point had that feel to it.
Bottom line is, nobody knows s#!%. Especially you.
If I were a new player, I would not play on an old server. Nobody likes to be at a disadvantage. SE will make fresh servers for fresh players and this thread will likely go un-noticed.