The Endless Cycle of Failing Overmelding

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G42EY...ature=youtu.be

Best case scenario was 11% success rate and 55 consecutive fails. Statistics for the win.

The chance of that happening is 0.16%, or 1 in 607. That falls under the 'well, it has to happen to someone' range of probability.

An 11% success rate means an 89% chance to fail every time. The likelihood of success doesn't change with each consecutive failure. lern2probability.

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Originally Posted by axemtitanium

An 11% success rate means an 89% chance to fail every time. The likelihood of success doesn't change with each consecutive failure. lern2probability.

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The chance of him failing on any attempt never changes. The probability of rolling consecutive fail does. You can flip a coin 100 times and still have 50% chance to land on tails but the likelihood you land on tails all 100 times is not 50%, it would be very small. I won't vouch for an exact number though.

Sorry for your bad luck OP, though I would really like to hear someone confirm the number from Astarica

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Originally Posted by Eightbit

The chance of him failing on any attempt never changes. The probability of rolling consecutive fail does. You can flip a coin 100 times and still have 50% chance to land on tails but the likelihood you land on tails all 100 times is not 50%, it would be very small. I won't vouch for an exact number though.

Sorry for your bad luck OP, though I would really like to hear someone confirm the number from Astarica

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This.

Failure = 89/100 Sucess = 11/100
55 Fails = .89^55
Chance of 55 fails in a row = .1465%

The probability of the event "100 tails in a row" is some absurdly small number but the probability of each coin flip stays the same. In the case of melding, it is likely (and perfectly valid) that you will get increasingly indignant after each successive failure but as far as we know, there is no "rubber band" RNG that tries to smooth out the failure rate.

Astarica is correct though. 0.89^55 is 0.00164, not 0.001465. Not sure where you got that number.

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Originally Posted by axemtitanium

Astarica is correct though. 0.89^55 is 0.00164, not 0.001465. Not sure where you got that number.

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I'd assume number dyslexia. Or he has squeaked in another attempt.

At least you keep the item and just lose the Overmeld Materia & Catalyst. In v1 you lost everything if you botched it.

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Originally Posted by Eightbit

I'd assume number dyslexia. Or he has squeaked in another attempt.

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Looks like you're right. That number is in fact .89^56. Dunno why I didn't think to try that.

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Originally Posted by MaethusXion

At least you keep the item and just lose the Overmeld Materia & Catalyst. In v1 you lost everything if you botched it.

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no you lose them both

Should've tried tera's MW system before they made it easier.. 2% to 3% success chances on the high-end.. ^^;

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Originally Posted by Crimson-Falcon

no you lose them both

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You do keep the item you are melding in this version on a fail... not so in 1.0.

Personally I feel there should be a fail safe built in for just this occasion. People get frustrated when the rng seems like its out to get them. I suggest that if you break a quad meld 20 times in a row for the same piece of gear you should automatically succeed in your next attempt. I would boost the break to maybe 30-35 for a quint meld. That way even the most unlucky people don't quit this game out of sheer frustration.

It's bad enough that we have to fight the rng for dungeons/raids we shouldn't have to suffer it for crafting as well.

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Originally Posted by Linadae

(snip) I suggest that if you break a quad meld 20 times in a row for the same piece of gear you should automatically succeed in your next attempt. I would boost the break to maybe 30-35 for a quint meld.(snip)

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That would need to track how many attempts have been made to meld a piece of gear, if they did put something like that perhaps it could be a gradual increase in % chance on the next meld for each failed attempt, until it reaches 100%.

Every game that has an RNG element to any level of gear progression will always have this thread. The person with the worst luck always claims the percentages are broken. I've seen it in every game where there is a chance to fail on an enchant level, meld, craft, etc.

I succeeded on melding somebody's 5th slot in 2 tries, I guess we balance each other out.

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Originally Posted by axemtitanium

In the case of melding, it is likely (and perfectly valid) that you will get increasingly indignant after each successive failure.

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You made my morning, thank you. Swearing at the monitor? You betcha!

This thread is giving me horrible, terrifying flashbacks to TERA enchanting and masterworking. x.x *hides in a corner*

I WON'T DO IT! YOU CAN'T MAKE ME!

This kind of gear progression is such crap. ._.

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Originally Posted by Naunet

This thread is giving me horrible, terrifying flashbacks to TERA enchanting and masterworking. x.x *hides in a corner*

I WON'T DO IT! YOU CAN'T MAKE ME!

This kind of gear progression is such crap. ._.

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eh, I feel like its warranted. You want the absolute best, it has a low chance of happening. It should not be a gimme

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Originally Posted by Naunet

This thread is giving me horrible, terrifying flashbacks to TERA enchanting and masterworking. x.x *hides in a corner*

I WON'T DO IT! YOU CAN'T MAKE ME!

This kind of gear progression is such crap. ._.

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I remember TERA.... gear progression and enchanting in that game was terribly broken, man it was so horrible, I'm glad I'm not playing that anymore. I remember 112 masterwork scrolls to finally get my t14 weapon masterworked. Then of course 56 fails and still no +11, I ended up just rage quitting the game at that point.

At least in FF14 the whole game isn't centered around it and you're only pushing for small bonuses by the 4th or 5th slot.

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Originally Posted by Linadae

Personally I feel there should be a fail safe built in for just this occasion. People get frustrated when the rng seems like its out to get them. I suggest that if you break a quad meld 20 times in a row for the same piece of gear you should automatically succeed in your next attempt. I would boost the break to maybe 30-35 for a quint meld. That way even the most unlucky people don't quit this game out of sheer frustration.

It's bad enough that we have to fight the rng for dungeons/raids we shouldn't have to suffer it for crafting as well.

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Certain other games(Vindictus)have even far worse RNG for enchanting and enhancing and worse penalties. I doubt any seasoned MMO veteran will quit over overmelding RNG.

In WoW they have stuff like if a quest drop didn't drop in X mobs it becomes more likely (stacking) next mob will drop it.

But in such a case you also can no longer claim that there's a 11% chance to meld, so that number itself has to change. Instead of seeing 11% all the time, you'd see that number steadily increase as you have more fails, and then people will probably complain about how the % to meld isn't consistent.

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Originally Posted by zdub303

I remember TERA.... gear progression and enchanting in that game was terribly broken, man it was so horrible, I'm glad I'm not playing that anymore. I remember 112 masterwork scrolls to finally get my t14 weapon masterworked. Then of course 56 fails and still no +11, I ended up just rage quitting the game at that point.

At least in FF14 the whole game isn't centered around it and you're only pushing for small bonuses by the 4th or 5th slot.

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There was nothing wrong with tera's equipment upgrade system, only the stupid rumor of a balantly inaccurate numbers posted on the forums everyone magically "believed to be true".

Tera uses a weighted system, in which 1-3 was very high (near 100%) then 4-6 was "middle", and 7-9 was "low" and 10-12 "really rare".

same with masterwork, it was "very rare". Some BS posted "koreans say it's 10%" was stupidly false, but people believed anyway. Since it took an average of 100+ attempts to masterwork it, it was likely to be .01% same with 11/12.

ARR uses a similar weighted average system, with 100% for 1st 2, and then so on. Only it caps it with a "stat cap" system, making it very unlikely for anyone to do 5 melds.

It's not rng, it was never rng. Anyone who understands basic dice theory like above will know consecutive failures the same as consecutive successes are "weighted".

ARR even shows you the percentage, and anyone with a calculator can do the math of how many attempts they would need. (I do smell 55 failures is kinda BS... the math is insanely small).

I was getting my crafting gear melded by a friend and had pretty awful luck, particularly on the last few melds. Cost me all of my gil. Then I did his (he's GSM and I'm LTW/WVR). Hit 3 41-44%s and one 24%. No misses -_-

RNG can be a pain sometimes, just have to live with it.

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eh, I feel like its warranted. You want the absolute best, it has a low chance of happening. It should not be a gimme

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Then maybe they should allow melded gear to equal top drops, and not be a placeholder.

The absolute best is NEVER a placeholder for next week. It might be a placeholder for "in 6 months" when new gear exists, but not right when its out.

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Originally Posted by kukurumei

There was nothing wrong with tera's equipment upgrade system, only the stupid rumor of a balantly inaccurate numbers posted on the forums everyone magically "believed to be true".

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It may have been mathematically consistent and it worked as the creator's intended, but it was still probably the worst (and most soulless) gearing system i've ever had the displeasure of dealing with. It was truly a horrible experience. For a game with such an amazing combat system, it was a total failure of a game. I, personally, believe it was simply due to the enchanting system.

FWIW I think NA TERA was around 1.5% or so. The average was around 60 attempts from what I saw online (not the most statistically relevant analysis I know) but a lot of us saw over 100 attempts. Also I think you mean 0.01 probability or 1% and not 0.01%.

Tera's system was a bloody abomination built by abominations. Wretched doesn't even begin to describe it.

OP I feel your pain man.

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Originally Posted by zdub303

It may have been mathematically consistent and it worked as the creator's intended, but it was still probably the worst (and most soulless) gearing system i've ever had the displeasure of dealing with. It was truly a horrible experience. For a game with such an amazing combat system, it was a total failure of a game. I, personally, believe it was simply due to the enchanting system.

FWIW I think NA TERA was around 1.5% or so. The average was around 60 attempts from what I saw online (not the most statistically relevant analysis I know) but a lot of us saw over 100 attempts. Also I think you mean 0.01 probability or 1% and not 0.01%.

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It is mathematically impossible to be 1.5% that is a fallacy, and why tera had such a raging hard on. The average of a masterwork before patch was like 90-120 tries. Fluctuate between tries, but most get it around 100 mark. That's not 1.5%, It's statistically unlikely to fail consecutively that many times. To fail that many times you would need a .16 % or something lower then 1%

Edit: This is because it's a streak. It is successively harder to keep not doing aka failing, with each attempt. Remember you only have to succeed just once, meaning you have to have an unbroken chain of fails which gets very very hard.

ARR flat out states the percentage, so it's more or less straight forward calculation, and yet still there's still raging going on, in the end, its just forum BS.

Most people will average out.

The problem is human penis envy and rumor mongering, and that's what happened to tera. Everyone see masters works around, so they think they are entitled to masterwork, which creates an atmosphere of "It's easy to get master work".

Tera community created a "+9 or you suck" problem. From the start it wasn't the system, it was the people who shitted over the system. Let's hope ARR never comes to that with the materia system.

When you have developers trying to peg a equipment system to weight it on to 10% of the population, that the said population is forced to have 50% become that 10% you will have a crap storm.

I can't be bothered, one great materia in each piece suffices.

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Originally Posted by kukurumei

Tera community created a "+9 or you suck" problem. From the start it wasn't the system, it was the people who shitted over the system. Let's hope ARR never comes to that with the materia system.

When you have developers trying to peg a equipment system to weight it on to 10% of the population, that the said population is forced to have 50% become that 10% you will have a crap storm.

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There was nothing to do in TERA but continue to enchant your gear, and so it shouldnt be that surprising that your value in that game was placed on your ilvl, which is directly related to how high everything was enchanted. and yes im referring to the after patch %, I didn't try masterworking until they raised the % on enchanting and masterworking.

If the average is 100 tries it would equate to 1% probability. Could you post the math you are using to determine that 0.16%?

If the average is 60 tries (which is what I was reading and seeing myself), it would equate to a 1.6% probability (or around 1.5% more likely).

I haven't even tied to overmeld. I've watched others chuck Materia II in to the wind over and over and it's enough for me. I just looks like a lesson in futility to me.

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Originally Posted by Ksenia

I haven't even tied to overmeld. I've watched others chuck Materia II in to the wind over and over and it's enough for me. I just looks like a lesson in futility to me.

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Materia is currently the only long term money sink for people who make lots of money.

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Originally Posted by SchalaZeal

Then maybe they should allow melded gear to equal top drops, and not be a placeholder.

The absolute best is NEVER a placeholder for next week. It might be a placeholder for "in 6 months" when new gear exists, but not right when its out.

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Eh..its not the absolute best though. BiS gear is in dungeons/raids, the i70 gear fully melded is better than DL from my limited understanding.

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Originally Posted by zdub303

There was nothing to do in TERA but continue to enchant your gear, and so it shouldnt be that surprising that your value in that game was placed on your ilvl, which is directly related to how high everything was enchanted. and yes im referring to the after patch %, I didn't try masterworking until they raised the % on enchanting and masterworking.

If the average is 100 tries it would equate to 1% probability. Could you post the math you are using to determine that 0.16%?

If the average is 60 tries (which is what I was reading and seeing myself), it would equate to a 1.6% probability (or around 1.5% more likely).

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To be fair... the kn extreme mode weapon drop masterwpork very easily. Then again, i remmebr i masterworked and +12 my aginator weapon, regean sword, and the visionmaker sword. Took too much effort lol

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Originally Posted by Bladenite81

Eh..its not the absolute best though. BiS gear is in dungeons/raids, the i70 gear fully melded is better than DL from my limited understanding.

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True the better gear is in dungeons. However, the best in slot accessories/belt is crafting. Well I guess that's still to opinion and based on which stats you care about.

http://www.bluegartr.com/threads/118...ear-Comparison shows all the stats between allagen and myth accessores. You add up all the stats with the pieces you'd go for and compare the the 5 meld piece of accessory.

Stat Caps per Belt/Accessoris:
12 ACC
12 SS
12 Crit
9 Vit (10 belt)
8 Det

For me if I went full mythology + 1 allagan ring i'd have:
78 STR
70 ACC
54 Crit
30 Det
15 Vit
22 SS

My crafted pieces with capped STR,ACC, DET, Crit, and some Vit


54 STR
72 ACC
72 Crit
48 DET
48 Vit
30 SS

I don't mind sacrificing STR for that extra buff in crit, det, and of course more survivability with Vit.

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Originally Posted by Crush3r07

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G42EY...ature=youtu.be

Best case scenario was 11% success rate and 55 consecutive fails. Statistics for the win.

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Please look forward to it.

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Originally Posted by Crush3r07

I don't mind sacrificing STR for that extra buff in crit, det, and of course more survivability with Vit.

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You end up sacrificing 24 STR for 18 Crit, 18 Det, and 8 SS, and 33 VIT. Its partially up to personal preference I guess but If you go with the stat weighting in this thread (http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...otation-Reborn) you are losing 24 values of stat weight to gain 8.008, so if the stat weights in that thread are at all correct (I assume they are close with how big that thread is) then you gain a significant chunk of dps going from i70 to i90, period. You do lose out on VIT though, which is one of those stats that is hard to place value on and becomes a little more personal choice.

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Originally Posted by zdub303

You end up sacrificing 24 STR for 18 Crit, 18 Det, and 8 SS, and 33 VIT. Its partially up to personal preference I guess but If you go with the stat weighting in this thread (http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...otation-Reborn) you are losing 24 values of stat weight to gain 8.008, so if the stat weights in that thread are at all correct (I assume they are close with how big that thread is) then you gain a significant chunk of dps going from i70 to i90, period. You do lose out on VIT though, which is one of those stats that is hard to place value on and becomes a little more personal choice.

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Ya that vit is a nice security blanket especially trying out the new raids. Surviving hits from bosses allows room for error because in the mist of all the chaos there is plenty of room for human error.

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Originally Posted by Crush3r07

Ya that vit is a nice security blanket especially trying out the new raids. Surviving hits from bosses allows room for error because in the mist of all the chaos there is plenty of room for human error.

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Thats certainly true, however you do sacrifice a significant amount of damage for that hp. Each stat has its place but in dungeons like coil with fairly tight dps timers you'll want to be pushing your dps as hard as you can. In that case raid gear is more desireable for raiding (as it should be imo)

A compromise would be to change it so instead of relying on RNG you will require multiple of the same materia for one meld. So a "10% chance of success" on a meld will become "requires ten materia of the same type and level".

There's worse enchanting/melding systems out there than XIV's though. TERA's has been mentioned and Aion's manastone socketing was outright awful. You had to fill up to 6 slots (sometimes costing hundreds of thousands of kinah per manastone) with a ~50% success rate and if you failed one you lost them all. The only way to get a decent success rate was to buy supplements from their cash shop.

This thread makes me happy! There are people who can do math and understand probability! I was reading the gathering thread and those people are idiots.