If SE is taking away my hard work...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rizon

I think the basic problem here is that you are confusing the real world economies with SE economy. In the real world governments take an active part in regulating their economies in order to ensure the very things you are talking about. As such the arguments you make would be very valid. Unfortunately SE has always taken a hands off approach in regards to the economy. Therefore Gil will always enter the economy at a rate far greater then its removal. Gil sinks and the such will have little or no effect. You will always have people who will spend every playing hour trying to corner the market in goods forcing people to spend large amounts of time just trying to make Gil to keep up. Please look up SEs history in this matter. It has always been the case with them. Til they make an idealogical shift in their thinking you will always have a problem of too much currency available. SEs current tactic of revaluation (as you wish to call it) is just a half hearted effort to redefine the starting point.

---

The problem is real world economies and "SE" or any video game eoconomies are really not much different. You can look at any economy in any game or any place on earth and the basic core principles are the same.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Alhanelem

The problem is real world economies and "SE" or any video game eoconomies are really not much different. You can look at any economy in any game or any place on earth and the basic core principles are the same.

---

Economy in the real world is maintained, it is actually very carefully monitored in a sense that some areas of the market are strictly forbidden to undercut (not all, SOME), and its illegal for price fixing, it is then heavily regulated by many government services that the industry scales with the redenomination. When the event occurs, a place selling cars did not keep them at the same value, or reduce to 1/5th, by government control they were kind of "forced" to reduce to 1/10th in order to maintain balance.

In-Game, this is not the case, there is NO one to maintain balance but us, there is NO one to control undercutting, price fixing and scalability but us.

It is very different. You can read up about situation where this has caused financial crisis in countries.

*still reading ... munch munch*

viion your point is that you believe once the market stabilizes people will be paying more due to the re-denomination, is that right? So the counterpoint that "people won't pay higher prices" is moot, because they won't have a choice.

I guess I'm still thinking that people will buy what they can afford, and people will only sell what others can buy. Even if there wasn't going to be a re-denomination, item values would shift due to game changes, so your scenario has the potential to be true regardless. Just the same I think an influx of new players (which is inevitable at least for the short term), who all have 0gil to begin with, must have an impact on item prices. Rampant speculation doesn't really accomplish anything, as you've pointed out, but I also don't think there's any reason to worry too much one way or the other.

Ultimately there are far too many factors involved to say "we will lose money due to the re-denomination," especially since the denomination of a currency has no bearing on item cost (or, if any, far less than supply/demand). If prices go up, they would have gone up anyway, and likewise if they go down. This by itself is not a catalyst for a significant market shift in either direction, and even if it is a contributor there is an ever-growing list of things that will contribute far more to valuation of goods.

People don't like being taken advantage of. Those who have been around and know that prices are too high will refuse to buy. Those who don't pay attention... hell, if they have the gil then let them spend it. There's nothing stopping folks who are "losing money" from likewise making it through the same circumstances, as has been pointed out.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

Economy in the real world is maintained, it is actually very carefully monitored in a sense that some areas of the market are strictly forbidden to undercut (not all, SOME), and its illegal for price fixing, it is then heavily regulated by many government services that the industry scales with the redenomination. When the event occurs, a place selling cars did not keep them at the same value, or reduce to 1/5th, by government control they were kind of "forced" to reduce to 1/10th in order to maintain balance.

In-Game, this is not the case, there is NO one to maintain balance but us, there is NO one to control undercutting, price fixing and scalability but us.

It is very different. You can read up about situation where this has caused financial crisis in countries.

---

you said it much better then I did. Thank You.

Alhanehem...if you want to get an idea of the effects of an unregulated economies read up on what led up to the Great Depression. The things you mentioned in your OP actually happened in the late 1920s, especially in the old Weimer Republic of Germany.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

Economy in the real world is maintained, it is actually very carefully monitored in a sense that some areas of the market are strictly forbidden to undercut (not all, SOME), and its illegal for price fixing, it is then heavily regulated by many government services that the industry scales with the redenomination. When the event occurs, a place selling cars did not keep them at the same value, or reduce to 1/5th, by government control they were kind of "forced" to reduce to 1/10th in order to maintain balance.

In-Game, this is not the case, there is NO one to maintain balance but us, there is NO one to control undercutting, price fixing and scalability but us.

It is very different. You can read up about situation where this has caused financial crisis in countries.

---

It is not very different. SE does monitor its economy as does every company monitors the eoconomy of their own game.

Price fixing might not be "illegal" but that doesn't mean it's easy to get away with. It can only easily happen with extremely rare goods that only a few people cposess and thereby can control. More typical commodities cannot be controlled this way.

Price fixing won't be any more or less of an issue than it is today. Undercutting in fact will prevent any real issues with gouging. This stuff is all a non-issue. The key similarities between this economy and any economy are the very reasons why this is not a big deal and people are blowing itway out of porportion.

because so many things are going to change when 2.0 comes out, all kinds of things will change in the economy as well- it is pointless to even try to predict how people will behave.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

Economy in the real world is maintained, it is actually very carefully monitored in a sense that some areas of the market are strictly forbidden to undercut (not all, SOME), and its illegal for price fixing, it is then heavily regulated by many government services that the industry scales with the redenomination. When the event occurs, a place selling cars did not keep them at the same value, or reduce to 1/5th, by government control they were kind of "forced" to reduce to 1/10th in order to maintain balance.

In-Game, this is not the case, there is NO one to maintain balance but us, there is NO one to control undercutting, price fixing and scalability but us.

It is very different. You can read up about situation where this has caused financial crisis in countries.

---

I feel like I have to point out that this re-denomination is exactly the kind of maintenance/regulation that you're saying In-Game economies don't have.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by KiriA500

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by KiriA500

Yes, but those things already have a set price. People just exploit others for the sake of profit. An iPad is not worth $1500 ever, but some stupid Mac lover will pay that price because they GOTTA HAVE IT, when they could just wait 2 months and find them everywhere. Nobody is happy to pay more than twice what an item is worth...they just do it because they're stupid and want it sooner than later.

---

Right.... That is exactly my point...

---

So, let the stupid people lose their money. Smart players will know better.

---

Smart players would exploit these people.

---

You're right. And it will happen.

But the great thing about that situation is that those people that are willing to pay those outrageous prices will suddenly find they hemorrhaged money much faster than they were able to take back in because redenomination smacked them right upside the head. And they won't realize this until they are broke or close to it which will happen very quickly.

Once those people have no more money to pay outrageous asking prices, guess what happens to those prices? That's right. They inevitably fall since the seller can no longer get what they were originally asking. It is a win/win. Market stabilizes to reasonable prices and idiots with money are parted from it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

Right.... and? This whole argument is about what I predict, I never once said anything is a sure bet, I never once said I know this will happen, I said countless times that I will predict "this will happen" because of "this and this and this" and people are like THAT WONT HAPPEN, im sorry but it is a possibility, it is something that could happen. You might not think it will, but I think it could.

As I said earlier, it could very well be that prices go to 1/20th of their value and you become richer in that area because you can buy twice as many now. Relics could become 1m each and u could buy 3 of them. Its a possibility that could very well happen, but I do not believe it will, thats my opinion.

---

Oh don't get me wrong I definitely assume that there will be specific items that gain value, probably significant value. But these gains in value are going to almost entirely come from gameplay mechanics changes, instead of the redenomination of gil. I just don't want people to come in and read your post and liquidate their gil thinking that it's better to have a stockpile of items going into ARR then gil. Because it's not true, and take an extreme risk in doing so, as nobody knows exactly which items are going to be valuable (and this is why SE cautions players as such).

Gil will be the one constant that will carry over into the new economy and will retain its value 100%. In terms of the market, this game is all about relative wealth of players, and that will not change with the redenomination of gil. Anyone that benefits monetarily from stockpiling items will be the lucky ones that happened to pick the items/materials that are needed in increased demand in ARR, nothing more, nothing less. And since neither you, nor anyone else knows which items those will be, I just want to caution readers to not follow in your path, unless they are potentailly willing to risk losing vast amounts of wealth.

This is very much like playing the stock market, except we have no real way to predict future values. As the one poster noted Electrum Ingots, who knows, Electrum ore could be dropping off every high level mob for all we know (or crafting recipes changed that drastically reduce the amount of ingots necessary). You are extremely confident in your view, which is fine, but there are a number of posters that clearly don't understand the effect of this gil redenomination and my fear is they do something they are going to regret later, because they panic'ed when they saw they're losing 9/10ths of their gil.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AzuraSin

*still reading ... munch munch*

viion your point is that you believe once the market stabilizes people will be paying more due to the re-denomination, is that right? So the counterpoint that "people won't pay higher prices" is moot, because they won't have a choice.

I guess I'm still thinking that people will buy what they can afford, and people will only sell what others can buy. Even if there wasn't going to be a re-denomination, item values would shift due to game changes, so your scenario has the potential to be true regardless. Just the same I think an influx of new players (which is inevitable at least for the short term), who all have 0gil to begin with, must have an impact on item prices. Rampant speculation doesn't really accomplish anything, as you've pointed out, but I also don't think there's any reason to worry too much one way or the other.

Ultimately there are far too many factors involved to say "we will lose money due to the re-denomination," especially since the denomination of a currency has no bearing on item cost (or, if any, far less than supply/demand). If prices go up, they would have gone up anyway, and likewise if they go down. This by itself is not a catalyst for a significant market shift in either direction, and even if it is a contributor there is an ever-growing list of things that will contribute far more to valuation of goods.

People don't like being taken advantage of. Those who have been around and know that prices are too high will refuse to buy. Those who don't pay attention... hell, if they have the gil then let them spend it. There's nothing stopping folks who are "losing money" from likewise making it through the same circumstances, as has been pointed out.

---

Yes, I am saying because of the redenomination of us going down, if item pricing does not go down too, then we need to pay more. Now when you say "Well things scale anyway". No, not the same, Never in the games history has every single item gone up by 20% or 50% over night. This has never, ever happened and I highly doubt it is ever a possibility if things stay the same way and when this transfer happens, that situation occurs. Hope that makes sense! lol.

Players will 0 gil could effect, but if for example, an item starts at 5m, and goes down and down and by the end of the month lands on 2m, and in that month time new players are able to get 2m and purchase that item now, it has been balanced out at 2m, When it should have balanced at 1m to be equal, the new player has not effected the balancing but helped maintain its higher pricing.

There are many factors, but you missing the point about why the denomination will affect cost, as stated in my first paragraph (view Russian 1998 crisis for a similar incident, where the value of rube dropped 80%) You say "If prices go up, they would have gone up anyway", do you think all items over night will go up 20% anyway? I don't think that would happen, i think that has a massively low chance in the current climate, but I see it very viable when we are redenominated.

I have been around since day 1, and many people on my server have, this did not stop them spending 4-5 times more on shards 1 year later, or stop them paying 3-4 times more for materia and been taken advantage off. They dont like it, but they do it.

Short and sweet version: SE is relaunching the game with a clean market. Therefore, the market WILL reestablish itself and fluctuate is the process whether SE proceeds with redenomination or not !

Do not blame user generated fluctuations on redenomination.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Alhanelem

It is not very different. SE does monitor its economy as does every company monitors the eoconomy of their own game.

Price fixing might not be "illegal" but that doesn't mean it's easy to get away with. It can only easily happen with extremely rare goods that only a few people cposess and thereby can control. More typical commodities cannot be controlled this way.

Price fixing won't be any more or less of an issue than it is today. Undercutting in fact will prevent any real issues with gouging. This stuff is all a non-issue. The key similarities between this economy and any economy are the very reasons why this is not a big deal and people are blowing itway out of porportion.

because so many things are going to change when 2.0 comes out, all kinds of things will change in the economy as well- it is pointless to even try to predict how people will behave.

---

SE monitor the economy? I cant laugh hard enough to see how wrong this. They wouldnt have fail Atomos incidents if they did.

Its not pointless to predict, if you think it is, then dont predict it, dont argue, leave the thread, go somewhere else. I want to predict, I like predicting and testing my knowledge and seeing the outcome, its something I enjoy and partake in. If you cant handle that, then that is your problem. I am here to debate my prediction.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Vindrax

Oh don't get me wrong I definitely assume that there will be specific items that gain value, probably significant value. But these gains in value are going to almost entirely come from gameplay mechanics changes, instead of the redenomination of gil. I just don't want people to come in and read your post and liquidate their gil thinking that it's better to have a stockpile of items going into ARR then gil. Because it's not true, and take an extreme risk in doing so, as nobody knows exactly which items are going to be valuable (and this is why SE cautions players as such).

---

This is very rude because you in turn could be saying "don't come in, its too risky and u should stay poor". People can choose what they want to do, don't say my opinion is false when I have my arguments as to why your argument is false. But I am not saying its false, I am saying its a possibility, a possibility I dont think will happen but an outcome that can occur.

If people cant think for themselves and go "omg a man on the internet said this, we should totally do it" and not think for themselves, that is their problem not mine.

Dont be arrogant to say what I believe is false, wrong and incorrect when I can easily say the same about you.

I am not saying redenomination is to blame, I am saying it creates a window to exploit, those exploited effects will cause drastic illness to the economy that it may not recover from.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Wynn

You're right. And it will happen.

But the great thing about that situation is that those people that are willing to pay those outrageous prices will suddenly find they hemorrhaged money much faster than they were able to take back in because redenomination smacked them right upside the head. And they won't realize this until they are broke or close to it which will happen very quickly.

Once those people have no more money to pay outrageous asking prices, guess what happens to those prices? That's right. They inevitably fall since the seller can no longer get what they were originally asking. It is a win/win. Market stabilizes to reasonable prices and idiots with money are parted from it.

---

you will be correct for about 4-6 months after launch. After that point, if the game is successful, then you will begin to see to an upswing in prices as a result of the large influx of currency into the economy. At that point the people who spent all their time collecting Gil will begin to control the Wards and will drive prices higher.

The short and the sweet of it is, unless SE plans to take an active part in regulating the economy then you will always have a problem with runaway inflation. The only thing this revaluation does is to delay the start of that process.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

I am not assuming they are set in stone, I assuming they wont have a % increase in 2.0.

if Choker at 8m goes to 4m instead of 800k it has had a 50% increase to its relation of reduction. Your argument would be valid if you said that the 8m choker went UP by 50% in 2.0 to 12m, then it would be considered the same.

If nothing changed and nothing happened, and we went into 2.0 with equality then that be all fine, but we are being reduced, an item is not and has gained value at the % higher than 10. And you assume people will not buy stuff at prices higher than 1/10th of the value, inflation has proven this incorrect, and you dont know if people will or not, just like i dont know if it will reduce or not, so what i am saying is a prediction, if you predict people will not pay anything above 1/10th thats gravy, but it doesn't seem like you're predicting it, more like insisting that will happen as you've not stated you assume or predict the way people act.

---

First of all, inflation is also part of the supply and demand. It doesn't just happen because it happens. (monies being printed everyday)

If the choker is 8m and goes to 4m instead of 800k when ARR comes, it just means the choker is worth more and more valuable to people in ARR, whether it's because the stats become more valuable because of ARR changes or choker becomes harder to obtain, etc. It will not be caused by the redenomination. (Obviously there will be suckers buying over-priced stuff during the initial ARR release time frame when people are still getting used to the new currency).

On the contrary, choker can well become 100k just because there are items with similar or better stats coming in ARR and easier to obtain.

One thing we're pretty certain about is ARR will not be the same as 1.0, meaning there won't be this equality thing. New recipes will be introduced and existing ones may change, new drops will be introduced in dungeons, more end game content means more variety of items, etc... will be the factors that influence the market prices in ARR.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by VanillaLatte

First of all, inflation is also part of the supply and demand. It doesn't just happen because it happens. (monies being printed everyday)

If the choker is 8m and goes to 4m instead of 800k when ARR comes, it just means the choker is worth more and more valuable to people in ARR, whether it's because the stats become more valuable because of ARR changes or choker becomes harder to obtain, etc. It will not be caused by the redenomination. (Obviously there will be suckers buying over-priced stuff during the initial ARR release time frame when people are still getting used to the new currency).

On the contrary, choker can well become 100k just because there are items with similar or better stats coming in ARR and easier to obtain.

One thing we're pretty certain about is ARR will not be the same as 1.0, meaning there won't be this equality thing. New recipes will be introduced and existing ones may change, new drops will be introduced in dungeons, more end game content means more variety of items, etc... will be the factors that influence the market prices in ARR.

---

Again, not saying caused by Redenomination, redenomination created a window, an opportunity for people to exploit, and I predict they will (Because they've exploited everything in the past,eg EXP AOE, PLing, Primals and Seals, etc).

It could, like you said be the reason that the stats are super delicious and that it became harder to obtain, but many items will not be this case (again my prediction), I do not think Militia choker will be harder or easier, be about the same.

You are completely right it could become 100k because of xyz reason, that would completely prove me wrong if all other items also became 1/40th (or anything higher than 1/10th) their value, it would say my prediction is incorrect, thats ...great? Thats not a bad thing, its good if I am wrong, we will not know until it happens, and you will not change my prediction until it happens and I say "You was right" or "You was wrong".

It does not matter about new items, I am soley basing on current items, new items can go ahead and decrease the price of current items, that will in effect prove my prediction wrong. I do not think there will be enough new items that reduce the global scale of all current items down to 1/10th or less, that is just what I think. I am sorry if you can't accept that I think differently.

You have VERY strong valid points, I understand them, I can see them happening as a possibility, a situation that could play out, but it is not what I think will happen, so please avoid saying I am wrong because I do not believe in what you think will happen.

I guarantee there are hundreds of things we would disagree with, no on is wrong for having their own opinion. (Infact they should and people who come in here and listen to me and panic buy are being silly because they should think for himself)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

This is very rude because you in turn could be saying "don't come in, its too risky and u should stay poor". People can choose what they want to do, don't say my opinion is false when I have my arguments as to why your argument is false. But I am not saying its false, I am saying its a possibility, a possibility I dont think will happen but an outcome that can occur.

---

I have no problem with anyone attempting to take advantage of the newly established market once ARR launches, in fact I encourage it. I do however have an issue with people encouraging others to participate in something very risky without CLEARLY outlining those potential risks. And that's what you are doing, feeding people information with laces of truth, without explaining the downsides. Stating "I believe there is no way this bow will sell for 3 million and anticipate up to a 500% increase in sales come ARR". Do you want me to go find your quote where you are waving your opinion as fact?

This is why I asked you for specifics, for all we know that bow could be worthless in ARR, made completely obsolete by a new and easier recipe. ANYTHING could. Here is the only fact that we know with any relative certainty going into ARR:

Gil will continue as the primary currency in ARR and is THE ABSOLUTE SAFEST BET to protect whatever wealth you have going into ARR.

Note that I'm not saying you are wrong. In fact you are almost assuredly right. Certain items/materials will become extremely valuable in ARR and anyone possessing mass quantities of those items will find themselves richer than they are currently. But until you can start quoting specific posts from dev's about upcoming changes in ARR which can help predict what items are going to gain value, your post is "pointless". Really, what is your argument? "Some items are going to be extremely valuable, you should try to make sure you have them". So I ask "What are these items?" "Where is your evidence as to why they are going to be valuable". Until you can start showing me empirical evidence that suggests otherwise, I would ask that you concede the only thing we know with any relative certainty:

Gil will continue as the primary currency in ARR and is THE ABSOLUTE SAFEST BET to protect whatever wealth you have going into ARR.

If you have information from the devs which indicates which materials and items are going to be valuable in ARR, I'd love for you to share them because that would actually be useful to know.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

Again, not saying caused by Redenomination, redenomination created a window, an opportunity for people to exploit, and I predict they will (Because they've exploited everything in the past,eg EXP AOE, PLing, Primals and Seals, etc).

It could, like you said be the reason that the stats are super delicious and that it became harder to obtain, but many items will not be this case (again my prediction), I do not think Militia choker will be harder or easier, be about the same.

You are completely right it could become 100k because of xyz reason, that would completely prove me wrong if all other items also became 1/40th (or anything higher than 1/10th) their value, it would say my prediction is incorrect and high, great? Thats not a bad thing, its good if I am wrong, we will not know until it happens, and you will not change my prediction until it happens when I say "You was right" or "You was wrong".

It does not matter about new items, I am soley basing on current items, new items can go ahead and decrease the price of current items, that will in effect prove my prediction wrong. I do not think there will be enough new items that reduce the global scale of all current items down to 1/10th or less, that is just what I think. I am sorry if you can't accept that I think differently.

You have VERY strong valid points, I understand them, I can see them happening as a possibility, a situation that could play out, but it is not what I think will happen, so please avoid saying I am wrong because I do not believe in what you think will happen.

I guarantee there are hundreds of things we would disagree with, no on is wrong for having their own opinion. (Infact they should and people who come in here and listen to me and panic buy are being silly because they should think for himself)

---

Since no one knows what will be changed for sure, this is a gamble. While many will be exploiting the new pricing because they bet on the right stuff, many will lose as well because they bet on the wrong things.

This is an opportunity for people who would like to gamble the new economy, I agree. But there is no guarantee. These people can lose a big chunk of their savings as well.

For myself, I will try not to get into this gambling situation so I may not win big, I will not lose big, either. I'll just play the game for what it is (or will be, in ARR).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Vindrax

I have no problem with anyone attempting to take advantage of the newly established market once ARR launches, in fact I encourage it. I do however have an issue with people encouraging others to participate in something very risky without CLEARLY outlining those potential risks. And that's what you are doing, feeding people information with laces of truth, without explaining the downsides. Stating "I believe there is no way this bow will sell for 3 million and anticipate up to a 500% increase in sales come ARR". Do you want me to go find your quote where you are waving your opinion as fact?

---

If people are doing this and not thinking for themselves, that is their problem. I am not going to change who I am or how I speak with the thought that someone thinks I'm Jesus and follows what I do.

Quote:

---

Some items are going to be extremely valuable, you should try to make sure you have them

---

I never once said this, I said that a lot of items will not reduce to 1/10th. I never once told people they should try make sure they go have them, please quote where I said people should go and stock on this because it will not go down, I think you will find that in all my posts, I state predictions of items, I am NOT going to list every item, just pretend I did list every single item in the database, all 7000 of them because this is what I meant.

Quote:

---

If you have information from the devs which indicates which materials and items are going to be valuable in ARR, I'd love for you to share them because that would actually be useful to know.

---

If you have information on all the players in the game that suggests they will not immediately inflate their prices, I'd love for you to share them because that would actually be useful to know. So get cracking and ask everyone, on all servers =)

You ask for evidence yet I have said countless times I am making PREDICTIONS.

You are getting very much denying to listen to me and twist my words into statements of fact solid bets, and this is not the case when every post I state i am making predictions. I can't be bothered to argue with the arrogance.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by VanillaLatte

Since no one knows what will be changed for sure, this is a gamble. While many will be exploiting the new pricing because they bet on the right stuff, many will lose as well because they bet on the wrong things.

This is an opportunity for people who would like to gamble the new economy, I agree. But there is no guarantee. These people can lose a big chunk of their savings as well.

For myself, I will try not to get into this gambling situation so I may not win big, I will not lose big, either. I'll just play the game for what it is (or will be, in ARR).

---

Show me where I said its a guaranteed, quote me please.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

You ask for evidence yet I have said countless times I am making PREDICTIONS.

---

I am saying your "predictions" are pointless. You are saying some items will gain value and you are willing to concede that others will lose value, but you "cannot predict" which is which. I apologize for trying to give you more credit in actually predicting something that matters. I would assume that by stating "A lot of items will not reduce to 1/10th" you would actually be encouraging people to obtain said items, since that would actually make logical sense.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Vindrax

I am saying your "predictions" are pointless. You are saying some items will gain value and you are willing to concede that others will lose value, but you "cannot predict" which is which. I apologize for trying to give you more credit in actually predicting something that matters. I would assume that by stating "A lot of items will not reduce to 1/10th" you would actually be encouraging people to obtain said items, since that would actually make logical sense.

---

Well if you going to call my predictions pointless then we will just end the discussion there. I am not going to try have an adult debate with someone who think it is pointless to predict the future (because no one does that.).

This matters to me, it matters to the OP, it matters to people here, even some against me it matters because they can at least debate, but you're just too arrogant and have to call it pointless, like I am stupid for having an opinion different from you.

So for that, you can keep your opinions on this situation to yourself since you think they are so pointless. (Which is quite sad that you're here on a forum, arguing with me over something you think is pointless, that is a big waste of time for you.)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

Show me where I said its a guaranteed, quote me please.

---

I didn't go through all of your posts and I never said you guaranteed anything, did I?

I was pointing out there is no guarantees in gambling.

You think Vanya will be worth a lot more than 1/10 of the current pricing because people will likely to buy them for maybe just 6/10 of the current pricing. If it's true it just means Vanya will be in higher demand in ARR (or harder to make or whatever). This has nothing to do with gil redenomination.

You can well stack them right now even if there's no gil redenomination. When ARR comes, they can well be worth 12m instead of the 2m today.

It has everything to do with ARR changes, and nothing to do with the gil redenomination.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rizon

you will be correct for about 4-6 months after launch. After that point, if the game is successful, then you will begin to see to an upswing in prices as a result of the large influx of currency into the economy. At that point the people who spent all their time collecting Gil will begin to control the Wards and will drive prices higher.

---

I think you are right, to a certain point.

But the fact is, you can't get blood from a turnip. You can ask for a certain price all you want, but if it is too high and there are lower priced alternatives you will be hard pressed to make that sale without some kind of compromise. The median will be found no matter how many people are resistant to that process unless it is everyone, and that is highly unlikely. In fact, I guess you could argue that if everyone were resistant to prices going down that would mean things are already correctly priced.

Another point is that there will always be people who are willing to undercut prices in order to make a sale if the item is worth selling and lowering the price does not put the seller in the red. As inflated as our economy is even now you see the evidence of that everywhere you look on the ward search.

A good example is the relics. What happened when Atomos was spitting out gil like a pez dispenser? Prices quickly bloated. Especially for the relic starters. Seeing one of those weapons for 30mil was suddenly normal. And, yes, for a little while people were actually paying those prices because they had it... from farming Atomos.

Last week, double melded astrolabes on my server were selling for 16mil which was down from what it was just after the Atomos inflation. They actually got upwards toward 25mil at the height. This week, they are 10mil. In one week they dropped 6 million gil. And I expect they will drop even further before the game shuts down.

Why? Well for starters, I think they aren't actually worth 16 mil and I think most would agree. But also because those people who were willing to drop that kind of cash on these items are broke again. They've lost their purchasing power. And the sellers are being forced to reduce their asking prices to move their product. Otherwise it just rots there. And people are undercutting them, driving the prices even lower.

We will see similar things happen after the game's reboot at the start and well on into the game's life. That's just how it works in these games. It shouldn't really be new to anyone who is an MMO vet.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by VanillaLatte

I didn't go through all of your posts and I never said you guaranteed anything, did I?

I was pointing out there is no guarantees in gambling.

You think Vanya will be worth a lot more than 1/10 of the current pricing because people will likely to buy them for maybe just 6/10 of the current pricing. If it's true it just means Vanya will be in higher demand in ARR (or harder to make or whatever). This has nothing to do with gil redenomination.

You can well stack them right now even if there's no gil redenomination. When ARR comes, they can well be worth 12m instead of the 2m today.

It has everything to do with ARR changes, and nothing to do with the gil redenomination.

---

Nothing right now will make all items 50% more over night in this economy. The redenomination allows the possibility of this happening. Even if an item is of exactly same in situations of: Still same difficult to obtain, still same stats value, still same demand, still same supply, it can still increase. Absolute zero effects from outside because its still a good piece that is difficult to obtain. But it is now 50% more. Because of an exploitable market window.

No we will never know the cause, so you can base your argument on that. Until we go into 2.0 and go "Ok, did all stats on all items scale relatively in that Vanya stats are as comparable now to all items as it was in 1.0?" and then "Is it still as difficult to obtain, is it the same synthesis process?" "Will those items cost more but still be same difficult to obtain", "Has no other item made it obsolete?" if all true, no other aspects other than redenomination have affected it.

We won't know this until it happens, and you do have a very strong and likely argument that the inflation of an item will not be caused due to this situation but rather than normal demand of an item due to game mechanics in 2.0, I however am suggesting the game mechanics in 2.0 will not change the way Vanya is obtained or its usefulness. I don't know this, I am assuming, its my prediction.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

So for that, you can keep your opinions on this situation to yourself since you think they are so pointless. (Which is quite sad that you're here on a forum, arguing with me over something you think is pointless, that is a big waste of time for you.)

---

No I just gave you more credit than you deserved in thought you were making an actual prediction rather than stating obvious facts. Summarize something worth "predicting" in 2-3 sentences that will matter come ARR in terms of the economy.

So far all I've heard is "People are going to try to exploit the market early on" (this will definitely happen), "Some items will sell for more than 1/10th of what they are currently valued at" (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation). That's about all I feel I've been able to take away from what you've written. You've put down a lot of words and I thought you were going for something bigger than that, but if honestly that's all you were trying to say, then yes I agree, but I feel those points are so obvious that it's "pointless" to even consider them predictions.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Vindrax

No I just gave you more credit than you deserved in thought you were making an actual prediction rather than stating obvious facts. Summarize something worth "predicting" in 2-3 sentences that will matter come ARR in terms of the economy.

So far all I've heard is "People are going to try to exploit the market early on" (this will definitely happen), "Some items will sell for more than 1/10th of what they are currently valued at" (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation). That's about all I feel I've been able to take away from what you've written. You've put down a lot of words and I thought you were going for something bigger than that, but if honestly that's all you were trying to say, then yes I agree, but I feel those points are so obvious that it's "pointless" to even consider them predictions.

---

Nothing "bigger", those 2 points are my exact argument, with the additional statement of "Many items will never reduce to 1/10th or less". That is what I think.

I seem to write a lot because it seems people are not understand that what you just said, IS what I am predicting, people here also have predictions and reasoning as to why this wont happen and that I am wrong, and that is fine, we can get into a friendly debate about it.

There is nothing more to it.

They are considered predictions because while you say (this will definitely happen) and (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation), there are people who are saying this will NOT happen, and items will eventually stabilize to 1/10th (or less). That is their prediction.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

Nothing right now will make all items 50% more over night in this economy. The redenomination allows the possibility of this happening. Even if an item is of exactly same in situations of: Still same difficult to obtain, still same stats value, still same demand, still same supply, it can still increase. Absolute zero effects from outside because its still a good piece that is difficult to obtain. But it is now 50% more. Because of an exploitable market window.

---

So I think you're saying if we get a gil cut tomorrow - everyone's gil will be 1/10 of what they have today, Vanya will not go down to 200k and will remain at around 1.2m mark from today's 2m mark.

Then can you answer this question? If 1.2m is good enough even after a 1/10 gil cut across the board, why would people sell it for only 2m today and not 12m instead?

note: This scenario is not saying Vanya will go down to 200k or 1.2m right away. The market settling time frame was omitted for simplicity.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AzuraSin

*still reading ... munch munch*

viion your point is that you believe once the market stabilizes people will be paying more due to the re-denomination, is that right? So the counterpoint that "people won't pay higher prices" is moot, because they won't have a choice.

I guess I'm still thinking that people will buy what they can afford, and people will only sell what others can buy. Even if there wasn't going to be a re-denomination, item values would shift due to game changes, so your scenario has the potential to be true regardless. Just the same I think an influx of new players (which is inevitable at least for the short term), who all have 0gil to begin with, must have an impact on item prices. Rampant speculation doesn't really accomplish anything, as you've pointed out, but I also don't think there's any reason to worry too much one way or the other.

Ultimately there are far too many factors involved to say "we will lose money due to the re-denomination," especially since the denomination of a currency has no bearing on item cost (or, if any, far less than supply/demand). If prices go up, they would have gone up anyway, and likewise if they go down. This by itself is not a catalyst for a significant market shift in either direction, and even if it is a contributor there is an ever-growing list of things that will contribute far more to valuation of goods.

People don't like being taken advantage of. Those who have been around and know that prices are too high will refuse to buy. Those who don't pay attention... hell, if they have the gil then let them spend it. There's nothing stopping folks who are "losing money" from likewise making it through the same circumstances, as has been pointed out.

---

Very true, ppl wouldn't keep undercutting if thier market was willing to pay top dollar, and part of economics, whether ingame or in the real world involves taking risks. Whoever can supply the most of a desired item at the lowest cost is going to be successful.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

Nothing "bigger", those 2 points are my exact argument, with the additional statement of "Many items will never reduce to 1/10th or less". That is what I think.

I seem to write a lot because it seems people are not understand that what you just said, IS what I am predicting, people here also have predictions and reasoning as to why this wont happen and that I am wrong, and that is fine, we can get into a friendly debate about it.

There is nothing more to it.

They are considered predictions because while you say (this will definitely happen) and (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation), there are people who are saying this will NOT happen, and items will eventually stabilize to 1/10th (or less). That is their prediction.

---

Actually I didn't see a single post (I could have missed one) that argued against those two points in this entire thread. People are arguing with your concepts of "losing gold" if prices go up with redenomination, and that prices are going to "stabalize" at some point lower than 1.0 prices. Some items are going to have relative value less than they do currently and others are going to be higher. But the redenomination is not the driving force:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NoctisUmbra

Incorrect.

Prices will not balance at 10% exactly, yes, however the reason behind that has little to do with the redenomination, and more to do with the fact that the game will be drastically different - namely crafting/gathering.

---

Basically what has people so upset over your predictions is that your predictions are extremely obvious to pretty much everyone in this thread (which is why I think there was some confusion), but your basis being the redenomination as the driving force is incorrect.

And all I was trying to say is that until we have more information as to how the game is going to change, investing in items is dangerous because we really do not have the slightest clue as to what is going to be valuable/worthless come ARR. That's my prediction, which is taking your two premise points and actually trying to put something meaningful behind it which is this:

Some people are going to invest (or through sheer luck) stockpile certain items that become tremendously valuable and make out like bandits. Others will try to play the system and invest in items and lose BIG. The most secure way to transfer your funds into ARR will be as gil, because at this point we do not have any additional information that we can draw useful conclusions from.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by VanillaLatte

So I think you're saying if we get a gil cut tomorrow - everyone's gil will be 1/10 of what they have today, Vanya will not go down to 200k and will remain at around 1.2m mark from today's 2m mark.

Then can you answer this question? If 1.2m is good enough even after a 1/10 gil cut across the board, why would people sell it for only 2m today and not 12m instead?

note: This scenario is not saying Vanya will go down to 200k or 1.2m right away. The market settling time frame was omitted for simplicity.

---

You are predicting high amounts that are quite incorrect, if an item goes from 2m to 1.2m instead of 200k it is 600% more valuable, that is too high for this situation. I dont predict all items will gain a 600% increase. and be 6/10ths. I predict 2-3/ths, even at the start, it might be higher, but doesnt matter, i reckon it will stablize at 2-3/10ths.

Taking what I consider to be the increase rate and not that crazy high 6/10ths that I dont believe in.

If you for example have 2m Vanya that goes to 400k instead of 200k, it is 100% more valuable.

That means right now it should be at 4m, Why does it not sell at this? Who knows, it can be because less buyers, it can be because there is a history, it can be because there is ones already up for 2m and so on, there is no panic of sudden loss of money because its a fresh new market where fresh net prices can be set, and people do try sell them at 4m even now. You factor in the high rate at start, 400k (4m) which in current climate reduced to 2m, should state that in 2.0 the 400k will go down to 200k. It might, it might not, I have stated why I do not think it will go down.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Vindrax

Basically what has people so upset over your predictions is that your predictions are extremely obvious to pretty much everyone in this thread (which is why I think there was some confusion), but your basis being the redenomination as the driving force is incorrect.

---

Redenomination creates a window of opportunity to exploit, people take this advantage and do so. Therefore that might not be directly related to redenomination but more to the fact that people are exploiting a new market with severely less Gil, but redenomination is the cause of less gil, which will trigger the "moods" and "reactions" players have.

I can put blame onto redenomination a number of ways.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

You are predicting high amounts that are quite incorrect, if an item goes from 2m to 1.2m instead of 200k it is 600% more valuable, that is too high for this situation. I dont predict all items will gain a 600% increase. and be 6/10ths. I predict 2-3/ths, even at the start, it might be higher, but doesnt matter, i reckon it will stablize at 2-3/10ths.

Taking what I consider to be the increase rate and not that crazy high 6/10ths that I dont believe in.

If you for example have 2m Vanya that goes to 400k instead of 200k, it is 100% more valuable.

That means right now it should be at 4m, Why does it not sell at this? Who knows, it can be because less buyers, it can be because there is a history, it can be because there is ones already up for 2m and so on, there is no panic of sudden loss of money because its a fresh new market where fresh net prices can be set, and people do try sell them at 4m even now. You factor in the high rate at start, 400k (4m) which in current climate reduced to 2m, should state that in 2.0 the 400k will go down to 200k. It might, it might not, I have stated why I do not think it will go down.



Redenomination creates a window of opportunity to exploit, people take this advantage and do so. Therefore that might not be directly related to redenomination but more to the fact that people are exploiting a new market with severely less Gil, but redenomination is the cause of less gil, which will trigger the "moods" and "reactions" players have.

I can put blame onto redenomination a number of ways.

---

My mistake on the calculation.
I meant to make it 2m to 320k, not 1.2m.

However my point remains. You don't have an answer because it doesn't make sense. No buyers? why will there be buyers with the gil cut. Price history? the history changes everyday already depending on supply and demand - people price things at the highest sellable point.

The "moods' and "reactions" or "impulse buys" are the suckers, unfortunately, that will be buying at over-priced mark during the initial settling time frame.

If for anything, people will be more cautious and less willing to buy things in ARR because they feel they have less gil after the redenomination.

edit: I agree there will be a "settling time" window but it's not created by the redenomination. It's created by game changes. IF there is no redenomination, Vanya 2m today can become 10m in ARR as well. It will not go straight to 10m right away, but it will gradually settle there. It's purely supply and demand and the relative value of the item (compare to other items) in the game.

Just make more gil if you need it
I have 75 million and growing and this doesn't bother me, I guess people who don't gather or craft are more scared

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by VanillaLatte

My mistake on the calculation.
I meant to make it 2m to 320k, not 1.2m.

However my point remains. You don't have an answer because it doesn't make sense. No buyers? why will there be buyers with the gil cut. Price history? the history changes everyday already depending on supply and demand - people price things at the highest sellable point.

The "moods' and "reactions" or "impulse buys" are the suckers, unfortunately, that will be buying at over-priced mark during the initial settling time frame.

If for anything, people will be more cautious and less willing to buy things in ARR because they feel they have less gil after the redenomination.

edit: I agree there will be a "settling time" window but it's not created by the redenomination. It's created by game changes. IF there is no redenomination, Vanya 2m today can become 10m in ARR as well. It will not go straight to 10m right away, but it will gradually settle there. It's purely supply and demand and the relative value of the item (compare to other items) in the game.

---

in 2.0 there is players returning and new players joining, these are significant potential increase in Buyers.

If people priced things at the highest sellable point, you'd never see anything higher because it will always be undercut down and down and down, but people dont, they keep items up for high amounts and eventually it might sell, or it might not. If it does, great, you have increased the price of the item. But its not based on a reaction, the history resets when wards crash and thus you'd have a clean slate there, but no one is suddenly 1/10th less with Gil and not needing to panic sell.

This is where Moods, reactions, impulse selling and buying comes in. Those "Suckers" will define a higher rate of balancing. of which the rest of us will have to meet in order to purchase said item. It might go down to 1/10th or less, it might not.

There will be "Cautious" and "Treasury" on purchases due to redenomination, but they will also be "Panic" and "Impulsive decisions". We cant say which will prevail, and take over and will affect the moods of players, that is impossible, we can only predict it. You can predict people will be cautious, I can predict people will panic. This is totally fair, try not judge me for my own opinion.

If no change in the need for Vanya changes in ARR and there was no redenomination, there is nothing I can think of that suggests Vanya will go to 10m just because it can, when no changes have been made to the game. You are arguing that its price will depend on game situations, that is true, I agree it will, but redenomination is part of the games situation, it is a system being used on the transfer, and it will have its affects. Even if that ONLY effect is "Crap i don't have as much Gil, inflate all ma prices to try recuperate", this is a result from the redenomination as it created that person to panic, and try to sell at high prices to reduce the amount of loss they obtained.

If you are going to say my points don't make sense, you will never understand my purpose and reasoning and you will just have to wait until 2.0 when we can see how things ended up, it is better to end the argument now if you feel confused about what I am predicting will happen.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ricky

Just make more gil if you need it
I have 75 million and growing and this doesn't bother me, I guess people who don't gather or craft are more scared

---

Holy 75 million! I just hit 1 million the other day for the first time LOL.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by viion

in 2.0 there is players returning and new players joining, these are significant potential increase in Buyers.

If people priced things at the highest sellable point, you'd never see anything higher because it will always be undercut down and down and down, but people dont, they keep items up for high amounts and eventually it might sell, or it might not. If it does, great, you have increased the price of the item. But its not based on a reaction, the history resets when wards crash and thus you'd have a clean slate there, but no one is suddenly 1/10th less with Gil and not needing to panic sell.

This is where Moods, reactions, impulse selling and buying comes in. Those "Suckers" will define a higher rate of balancing. of which the rest of us will have to meet in order to purchase said item. It might go down to 1/10th or less, it might not.

There will be "Cautious" and "Treasury" on purchases due to redenomination, but they will also be "Panic" and "Impulsive decisions". We cant say which will prevail, and take over and will affect the moods of players, that is impossible, we can only predict it. You can predict people will be cautious, I can predict people will panic. This is totally fair, try not judge me for my own opinion.

If no change in the need for Vanya changes in ARR and there was no redenomination, there is nothing I can think of that suggests Vanya will go to 10m just because it can, when no changes have been made to the game. You are arguing that its price will depend on game situations, that is true, I agree it will, but redenomination is part of the games situation, it is a system being used on the transfer, and it will have its affects. Even if that ONLY effect is "Crap i don't have as much Gil, inflate all ma prices to try recuperate", this is a result from the redenomination as it created that person to panic, and try to sell at high prices to reduce the amount of loss they obtained.

If you are going to say my points don't make sense, you will never understand my purpose and reasoning and you will just have to wait until 2.0 when we can see how things ended up, it is better to end the argument now if you feel confused about what I am predicting will happen.

---

I agree with what you said for the most part.

What I do not agree with you is you seem to put gil redenomination as the main cause of all price changes that will happen in ARR. In my opinion, the ARR game changes will be the main cause. Gil redenomination will play little to no roles on this, even if it makes some players panic or more cautious.

And for your predictions - they're pretty pointless and nothing will be proved when ARR comes because of the massive changes ARR will bring. And I believe it makes more sense to say Vanya staying at 320k instead of 200k was caused by the supply and demand and ARR game changes rather than gil redenomination where no buying power was altered.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Gucci_Charms

Holy 75 million! I just hit 1 million the other day for the first time LOL.

---

I went from 7 mil down to 500k. :<

It's cute how sellers think they determine the price of what something sells for. XD Let me give you a dumbed down version of how you don't. Firstly, producer competition: Whatever you try to sell your item at, someone will sell it for less as long as they can make a profit. Secondly, buyer's willingness: If you sell something for more than people are willing to buy it for... your item will not sell. Lastly, static competition: I'm talking NPCs here. If you don't match NPC prices or sell for less, why in the world would anyone buy from you?

One thing to remember is that this re denomination affects everyone and the majority of players don't have tens of millions of gil. The average player probably has in the ballpark of 2 mil or less. So, when the re denomination hits us as well, we'll be less willing to part with our gil as it is now worth more.

Odds are prices will be high when ARR first launches because it'll take time for the MWs to restock. Once the market stabilizes though items will probably be around 1/10th of what they were originally or possibly even less as more content=more equipment and more options are bad for business but good for consumers.

I have roughly 10 million split up from my retainers, an I haven't been able to find a good permanent spot at the Market wards. It'll be one million once ARR hits, but I know my ability to make wealth is based on more than just coin.

As a crafter, I have little sympathy for those who switch back and forth between "Waste of time" and "all my precious hard work! nooes!" within the space of a paragraph. Even less when they threaten to buy from gilsellers, ruining the economy they couldn't give a damn over. You've fought mobs to get your gear, right? Then that's what you must do! either that, or level crafting or gathering.

I would like to know though, how many other games attempted a gil reset on this scale.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rizon

you said it much better then I did. Thank You.

Alhanehem...if you want to get an idea of the effects of an unregulated economies read up on what led up to the Great Depression. The things you mentioned in your OP actually happened in the late 1920s, especially in the old Weimer Republic of Germany.

---

The hyperinflation 1923 was because the goverment pumped too much money in the system, not because they took money out. Germany drowned in money.

http://www.welt.de/img/history/crop1...ltur-Essen.jpg

I bet after the hyperinflation the people weren't angry that they didn't have a 5,000,000,000 Reichsmark bank note in their purse anymore to buy bread with it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ricky

Just make more gil if you need it
I have 75 million and growing and this doesn't bother me, I guess people who don't gather or craft are more scared

---

well all that work went to waste now you have 7.5 million, most people just raid so they aint got no money.

well ill be good in ARR, i have 10 retainers full on my mule account.

First, look up what it means to add value to currency, because that is all SE is doing to the gil, they aren't taking anything from you. (not saying i think it will or wont work, just saying that they actually aren't taking anything from you) Second, the comment about no means of income makes me think of the ant and the grasshopper. You got 24 days left, i would get on working on a craft were I you, otherwise you got no room to complain.

Lastly, if you have 0 crafting or gathering classes leveled then you dont have 999 mil gil, so why are you complaining again exactly?