A new tactic for the dissatisfied

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Originally Posted by Renathras

The total playerbase, not just Steam players?

Okay, got a link/statistic to prove that?

That ALL players dropped 50%, not just Steam players? (And as I recall from that discussion you had before, I actually used the statistics to prove you wrong, showing that the number of players at the same point in a given expansion shows EW growing, not shrinking, compared to ShB, using the Steam numbers:

https://i.imgur.com/JSAOBgw.jpg

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I didnt know 35000 was bigger than 95000, well you learn every day I guess

Okay, just so we're clear:

100 players but only lost 10 = Not bad, only lost 10%

100k players, lost 65k = the world is ending

https://media.tenor.com/DozZTQmVXIEA...john-candy.gif

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Originally Posted by Renathras

The total playerbase, not just Steam players?

Okay, got a link/statistic to prove that?

That ALL players dropped 50%, not just Steam players?

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Why would steam players behave differently than non-steam players?

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Originally Posted by Saraide

Why would steam players behave differently than non-steam players?

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its not about steam players being different its about the sample size, steam isn't even 10% of the player base to say that a 60% lose of steam players = how it works with overall with the player base.

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Originally Posted by Musashidon

its not about steam players being different its about the sample size, steam isn't even 10% of the player base to say that a 60% lose of steam players = how it works with overall with the player base.

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I would give you as advice to read the definition of a sample

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample

Have we been here before? I think we have. Did I dream it? Man...Deja Vu up in here.

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Originally Posted by Saraide

Why would steam players behave differently than non-steam players?

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Originally Posted by Musashidon

its not about steam players being different its about the sample size, steam isn't even 10% of the player base to say that a 60% lose of steam players = how it works with overall with the player base.

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Partly this.

Steam players are also generally more diverse than just the MMO or JRPG markets. That is, different likes and different preferences We also have no evidence that steam players do not behave differently than the playerbase as a whole, but we DO know that the majority of the playerbase doesn't use Steam. Which means the Steam numbers likely aren't predictive. Further:

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Originally Posted by RosaliaDLB

I didnt know 35000 was bigger than 95000, well you learn every day I guess

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This is what bad statistics takes look like, and explains why you're wrong so much.

You're comparing to 23k, not to 95k. That's your problem and what you don't understand.

EVERY MMO, without exception, has an inflation of players when expansions release that then declines into their steady state amount. Endwalker's steady state is ~30% higher than ShB's was using the Steam numbers. That would indicate growth, not decline.

Where you'd use the 95k number to compare to, if you're going to do so, would be the month Dawntrail releases.

You know this, because I explained it to you before. This is where that whole "if you read my posts instead of snarking off about them" thing comes in. I wouldn't have to make the point to you over and over and over again, with you being wrong over and over and over again while feigning "I don't understand why people would say..." over and over and over again if you'd just read and listen the first time.

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

I would give you as advice to read the definition of a sample

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample

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this does not refute what i said. it just says what a sample is. picking and choosing something and saying over and over again you are completely right doesnt make your use of the information wrong.

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Originally Posted by Musashidon

this does not refute what i said. it just says what a sample is. picking and choosing something and saying over and over again you are completely right doesnt make your use of the information wrong.

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I aint picking nothing, I am showing statistics my friend, sorry you disagree with them, not my problem though.

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Originally Posted by Renalt

Have we been here before? I think we have. Did I dream it? Man...Deja Vu up in here.

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Nope, you didn't dream it. We had this exact same conversation before.

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

I would give you as advice to read the definition of a sample

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_bias
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias

EDIT:

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

There's no bias buddy, it's an official source from steam, I aint gonna keep talking about this with you lmao, moving on

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You say this because you don't know what sampling bias is.

Or, rather, you know what it is and why it's an issue here, you just likely don't want to admit it.

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Originally Posted by Renathras

Nope, you didn't dream it. We had this exact same conversation before.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_bias
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias

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There's no bias buddy, it's an official source from steam, I aint gonna keep talking about this with you lmao, moving on

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Originally Posted by Musashidon

steam players are no different than normal players. it can show trends but the biggest trend the information shows is the normal there is a large chunk of players who only play to experience the expansion this happens every point from ARR til now.

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And it shows that on the graph and in the numbers. Read it again. It shows per month.

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Originally Posted by Renathras

Partly this. Steam players are also generally more diverse than just the MMO or JRPG markets. That is, different likes and different preferences We also have no evidence that steam players do not behave differently than the playerbase as a whole, but we DO know that the majority of the playerbase doesn't use Steam. Which means the Steam numbers likely aren't predictive. Further:

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the steam players are no different than the normal player base, that being said the information shows that there is a large group of players who only play for the expansions this has been seen from ARR to EW the playerbase drops from the biggest hyped moment aka the expansion to the normal player base.

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

And it shows that on the graph and in the numbers. Read it again. It shows per month.

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yes and i see and it clearly shows like always the normal amount of players leaving after playing the expansion which is in fact around 50% with alittle fluctuation this is not showing anything new or that things are worse off then they have ever been the players that normally stay longer have stayed longer and as we reach into this coming drought the numbers will drop some more as it always does but the numbers over all are higher each expansions aka when we were down to like 200k concurrent players during ARR but was much higher than that during the same drought in shadowbringers and even now higher approaching the drought in endwalker.

While I get the point you're aiming for here. I suspect once a lot of the more diehard players finally give up, they won't be coming back unless there's a massive change. Which isn't likely to happen even if they ever did start course correcting. I can only speak for myself but if XIV ever reaches the point I unsub for an extended period of time, I wouldn't be easily motivated to get back into it after say 2-4 years. By then, I'll have moved on to other games. I doubt I'm alone in that feeling either.

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Originally Posted by ForteNightshade

While I get the point you're aiming for here. I suspect once a lot of the more diehard players finally give up, they won't be coming back unless there's a massive change. Which isn't likely to happen even if they ever did start course correcting. I can only speak for myself but if XIV ever reaches the point I unsub for an extended period of time, I wouldn't be easily motivated to get back into it after say 2-4 years. By then, I'll have moved on to other games. I doubt I'm alone in that feeling either.

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This is me, I’ve taken 1 or 2 patch breaks before (when the patch cycle was shorter) if it ever came to a point where I was taking an entire expansion off, it would take a cataclysmic 1.0-2.0 change to bring me back after that

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Originally Posted by ForteNightshade

While I get the point you're aiming for here. I suspect once a lot of the more diehard players finally give up, they won't be coming back unless there's a massive change. Which isn't likely to happen even if they ever did start course correcting. I can only speak for myself but if XIV ever reaches the point I unsub for an extended period of time, I wouldn't be easily motivated to get back into it after say 2-4 years. By then, I'll have moved on to other games. I doubt I'm alone in that feeling either.

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Is there anything out there to move on to? This is my first and only MMO. Like yeah, I could go back to mainly pvp games, but it's not really the same.

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Originally Posted by Renathras

Honestly, the issue is that a lot - not all, but the loud, prodigious voices - of the people who dislike the game don't offer suggestions or critiques at all.

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This basically is one of the primary causes of feedback getting overlooked and ignored. People have limits. Someone has to read it all and can only take so much of seeing "GAME SUX GIMMIE FREE STUFF" before hitting delete all and walking away.

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Originally Posted by NekoMataMata

Is there anything out there to move on to? This is my first and only MMO. Like yeah, I could go back to mainly pvp games, but it's not really the same.

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This is how I feel. Sure MMOs have come and gone over the years but nothing has really lasted as far as I am aware. FFXIV needs real competition besides WoW.

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Originally Posted by Renathras

Partly this.

Steam players are also generally more diverse than just the MMO or JRPG markets. That is, different likes and different preferences

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Source please

Long as I've been doing the whole online gaming thing, I'd honestly say it's pretty rare to see devs act in the moment unless it's a bug that benefits players in unintended ways. And while it's easy to proffer solutions or question why they never predicted the outcome of XYZ, it usually does take something pretty dramatic to force action.

Diablo IV is probably the most recent game to get the dubious distinction of being such an unmitigated dumpster fire that Blizzard was forced to walk back certain things and reevaluate their patching procedure. It's still up in the air just how much they're truly "listening" and actually putting that feedback to use, but if I were to compare the game to XIV's current state, it's frankly not even close even if you just try to limit things to the scope of EW content. Prior to D4, most would probably point to Cyberpunk as the previous holder of the title. Suppose I can't really disagree with people on WoW, but I do think age of a game is a factor, too. Go back far enough and XIV's 1.0 would've been top dog at being bad. And much as people try to point to stream numbers or steam charts, they never tell the whole story. Bare minimum, the latter doesn't include PS4/5 users and PC players that don't use steam for the game. No "service" game is gonna have good numbers in a content lull, either, especially with at least 2 popular titles coming out in what's frankly been a pretty stacked year for games.

I can understand the frustration, especially when the game isn't what you want and you want to be having fun in the moment, but things are unfortunately going to be slow for a 10 year old game and could quite bluntly be worse (See: FFXI). Take a break. Seriously. Be it a month, until next big patch, or even until Dawntrail. It's not a betrayal. Unlike some mobile game, XIV will still be here, as it's highly unlikely SE will truly abandon it without a replacement game out and thriving. And to that end, the OP's logic is actually fairly spot on.

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Originally Posted by NekoMataMata

Is there anything out there to move on to? This is my first and only MMO. Like yeah, I could go back to mainly pvp games, but it's not really the same.

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To be blunt, no. MMOs have a stagnation problem that's recently been exacerbated by the whole "classic" push WoW saw and other games emulated in the mistaken belief that what's old is new again when it's more like what's old was actually pretty bad and got iterated and patched for a reason. If it's not "theme park" like WoW or XIV, then it's probably a stale, open world PvP grinder KRMMO with virtually non-existent storytelling.

So, while my earlier reply could more or less be summed up as complaints being pissing in the wind, I can only hold out hope that maybe some day a studio will choose to innovate over playing it safe and we get something more than instanced raider endgame redux despite numerous wings of the gaming scene proving world-building experiences in their myriad forms can actually be pretty popular and fun.

As someone that's hopped from MMO to MMO since XI was more in its prime, I'll just say no game will be like your first and to not let nostalgia blind you. You could've chosen a worse game for sure.

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Originally Posted by NekoMataMata

Is there anything out there to move on to? This is my first and only MMO. Like yeah, I could go back to mainly pvp games, but it's not really the same.

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I wouldn't, say, "move on" to it (it's very old), but if you're looking for a wild and crazy time, you can always try my absolute favorite MMO ever, Granado Espada. If nothing else, the concept is great and the music even better (of which, might I recommend: Witch on a Diet, Purple Snow, Rhapsody, Arpegionne Sonata, Ocean Dream, Forget-Me-Not, and Jeremy?).
Otherwise, for the moment, we've kinda really have nothing notable in the MMORPG genre that comes to mind immediately, to the point where I'm looking forward to seeing that spiritual successor to Dragon Nest release even though it's basically another gacha game.

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Originally Posted by NekoMataMata

Is there anything out there to move on to? This is my first and only MMO. Like yeah, I could go back to mainly pvp games, but it's not really the same.

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A question I found myself asking of the game I played prior to moving to FFXIV. In fact, my experience of that game is probably the reason that I don't make much of a fuss about FFXIV's perceived shortcomings.

That isn't to say that I disagree with some of the criticism - some fair points have been, and whilst I'm not going to pretend that I didn't enjoy Endwalker as I did for the most part.

Coming from a game with a very heavy commitment to gambleboxes, a very sleazy attitude toward said gambleboxes ("we don't sell gambleboxes, we sell virtual currency that players can choose to use to purchase an item that opens the boxes"), Pay to Win, lack of any new playable content due to said commitment to making items to put in gambleboxes or expensive (up to £600) multi-item bundles instead of making playable content, and a CM and Devs who seem to have little issue with using their personal Twitter accounts to badmouth player feedback. In fact, one of them did so recently - bemoaning the fact that they produced some new stuff and players had the audacity to ask for more. I could go on, but see little point.

To be fair, it was a gradual decline that picked up momentum - they clearly looked to the mobile-gaming industry and tried to apply the cash-grab mentality that those games often adopt to an MMO. And it came at the cost of new content - one or two new pieces of 45-minute's worth of story content every six months.

Point is, I guess I still feel as if FFXIV has been a breath of fresh air after playing a game run by a company with nothing in mind beyond strip-mining as much revenue as they can from players/customers via gambleboxes.

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Originally Posted by Saraide

Source please

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Still waiting on the source that the playerbase as a whole has dropped 70%.

I can provide the source for the above as soon as that source is provided.

Gonna sound harsh but it always seems like veteran players heavily overestimate their own worth to the game lol. Aren’t there 10 new players who are going to be subbed for at least several months to finish storyline, for every 1 veteran that leaves from sheer boredom?

The game gets like this every expansion cycle lol, hell even in the later ARR patches the amount of players dropped off pretty heavily.

It doesn’t really matter how hard one tries with the ‘speak with your wallet’ tactic, it’s sadly guaranteed to fail because for every wallet they lose they’re gaining another 10. Then when those 10 wallets inevitably all quit there’ll be another 10 just starting the game, and the wheel keeps spinning.

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Originally Posted by Renathras

Still waiting on the source that the playerbase as a whole has dropped 70%.

I can provide the source for the above as soon as that source is provided.

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So you just claim steam player base behaves very differently without source, got it.

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Originally Posted by Saraide

So you just claim steam player base behaves very differently without source, got it.

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Nope, didn't say that.

I said I'll give you the source when you provide the source the playerbase as a whole has dropped 70%.

EDIT:

psst - I also didn't say they "behaves very differently", either. At least get the claim right.

EDIT2:

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Originally Posted by Saraide

It is your claim or you have no claim.

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It literally wasn't my claim. You quoted my actual claim. Now you're trying to waste my post count. I won't give you the satisfaction here, so you'll have to take an edit instead.

You even quoted me:

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Originally Posted by Renathras

Partly this.

Steam players are also generally more diverse than just the MMO or JRPG markets. That is, different likes and different preferences

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...showing you know I didn't make the claim!

Specifically, Steam as a platform sells many types of games. Very few people only have one game in their Steam library, or only MMOs. As for preferences, you simply look at the Steam Charts. The most popular games are generally not MMOs, or only MMOs. This means the average Steam user is not strictly a MMO/JRPG player. Indeed, right now, there's only one arguable JRPG (a battle royal) in the top ten, and no MMORPGs.

The more difficult question to answer would be if the Steam FFXIV playerbase is identical to the non-Steam FFXIV playerbase, but we have no real data to support either conclusion, so both must be treated as suspect until support is provided.

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Originally Posted by Nebelheim

They tend to make claims a lot without any data to back them up then expect others to provide sources.

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Ah, the third person passive aggressive heckling peanut gallery has arrived.

.

In any case, I'll note the 70% overall FFXIV player drop number has not been show - neither an actual statistic showing it directly NOR the Steam statistic + another statistic showing the Steam and non-Steam FFXIV playerbases are identical. So it was a claim made with no evidence which, of course, neither of you take issue with, because you want them to be true and agree with the people presenting those "statistics" who refuse to provide sources.

Good job having double standards.

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Originally Posted by Connor

Gonna sound harsh but it always seems like veteran players heavily overestimate their own worth to the game lol. Aren’t there 10 new players who are going to be subbed for at least several months to finish storyline, for every 1 veteran that leaves from sheer boredom?

The game gets like this every expansion cycle lol, hell even in the later ARR patches the amount of players dropped off pretty heavily.

It doesn’t really matter how hard one tries with the ‘speak with your wallet’ tactic, it’s sadly guaranteed to fail because for every wallet they lose they’re gaining another 10. Then when those 10 wallets inevitably all quit there’ll be another 10 just starting the game, and the wheel keeps spinning.

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Might be some truth in that. It's probably also why we get so few genuine newbies here (on the forum) - they're too busy playing the MSQ, whereas all we can do here is reflect on said MSQ in the past-tense and discuss endgame content.

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Originally Posted by Saraide

So you just claim steam player base behaves very differently without source, got it.

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They tend to make claims a lot without any data to back them up then expect others to provide sources.

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Originally Posted by Renathras

Nope, didn't say that.

I said I'll give you the source when you provide the source the playerbase as a whole has dropped 70%.

EDIT:

psst - I also didn't say they "behaves very differently", either. At least get the claim right.

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It is your claim or you have no claim. You cant say they behave the same and then say steam numbers are not representative. This claim is also independent of any specific claim about how much player numbers dropped. If steam numbers showed an increase by 30% or whatever you would still bring up the same point that steam players behave differently and you would still have to prove that.

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Originally Posted by NekoMataMata

Is there anything out there to move on to? This is my first and only MMO. Like yeah, I could go back to mainly pvp games, but it's not really the same.

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In the MMO sphere of things, not really imo. I've slowly moved into the Hoyoverse & HOTTA worlds while waiting for patch updates here. They both manage to push out updates monthly/bi-monthly which is a breath of fresh air compared to here.

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Originally Posted by Connor

Gonna sound harsh but it always seems like veteran players heavily overestimate their own worth to the game lol. Aren’t there 10 new players who are going to be subbed for at least several months to finish storyline, for every 1 veteran that leaves from sheer boredom?

The game gets like this every expansion cycle lol, hell even in the later ARR patches the amount of players dropped off pretty heavily.

It doesn’t really matter how hard one tries with the ‘speak with your wallet’ tactic, it’s sadly guaranteed to fail because for every wallet they lose they’re gaining another 10. Then when those 10 wallets inevitably all quit there’ll be another 10 just starting the game, and the wheel keeps spinning.

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Well yes, but actually no. Eventually the game will hit market cap and just about everyone that will ever want to give the game a go will have given it a go. So while this is currently the case, eventually the game will not be able to continue to attract new players. This was one of the contributing factors in WoW's population decline after WotLK.

The other factor that hinders a new player's monetary value now, is the extremely generous and ever increasingly generous free trial. If they keep expanding this thing it will only be another 6 years or so before 7.0 is in the free trial. At present SE are only making money off of new players that subscribe before the end of the free trial or the sub time for the two most recent expansions. And if the game doesn't convert that new player into a long term subscriber, then SE is actually losing money on the free trial.

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Originally Posted by TheOperator3712

The other factor that hinders a new player's monetary value now, is the extremely generous and ever increasingly generous free trial. If they keep expanding this thing it will only be another 6 years or so before 7.0 is in the free trial. At present SE are only making money off of new players that subscribe before the end of the free trial or the sub time for the two most recent expansions. And if the game doesn't convert that new player into a long term subscriber, then SE is actually losing money on the free trial.

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This is a point I forgot to consider actually but you’re right, when accounting for free trials it does mean that SE are going to end up losing money if they’re putting all their eggs into the new player basket. And as you say there’s a limit to how many people can be ‘new players’, as inevitably there will come a point where everyone who wants to play the game already has, meaning new player numbers start to dry up.

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Originally Posted by Connor

This is a point I forgot to consider actually but you’re right, when accounting for free trials it does mean that SE are going to end up losing money if they’re putting all their eggs into the new player basket. And as you say there’s a limit to how many people can be ‘new players’, as inevitably there will come a point where everyone who wants to play the game already has, meaning new player numbers start to dry up.

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Iirc there was already a point, early this year, where the Lucky Bancho census showed a decrease in new characters created. Maybe it's an indication that the game is reaching it's cap, maybe people are just not making more alt characters (since it goes by active characters of which a single player could have multiple), maybe it's gonna go up again with Dawntrail (that would heavily depends on what they do with the new player experience and whether or not those people have to go through 10 years of story first), who knows.

The latest census for 6.4 showed an overall decline, Active Characters decreased by 260,000 (from 1,390,000 down to 1,130,000), Returning Characters decreased by 270,000 (from 430,000 down to 160,000), New Characters decreased by 20,000 (from 100,000 down to 80,000).
What has increased are the characters that continued to be active between the last census and this one (from 850,000 to 880,000).

Granted I used google translate so take it with a grain of salt.
https://luckybancho.ldblog.jp/archives/57719554.html

Those numbers have absolutely nothing to do with anything in this game and everything to do with the fact that we are now post-pandemic and people are going back outside.

Touch. Some. Grass.

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Originally Posted by ChonkGoblinSuprem

Touch. Some. Grass.

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But it’s so low-quality!

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Originally Posted by ChonkGoblinSuprem

Those numbers have absolutely nothing to do with anything in this game and everything to do with the fact that we are now post-pandemic and people are going back outside.

Touch. Some. Grass.

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Outside is just a rumor - you can't prove anything!

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Originally Posted by Connor

But it’s so low-quality!

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Not to mention that the level grind is atrocious.

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Originally Posted by ChonkGoblinSuprem

Touch. Some. Grass.

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It's about 90 degrees outside. Hard pass.

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Originally Posted by Saraide

So you just claim steam player base behaves very differently without source, got it.

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My personal experience with friends who are Steam users:

The ones that are the heaviest Steam users are constantly jumping from game to game. Why? Because there's a massive catalog of games to try out at their fingertips and they don't want to chance missing out on stumbling across that one game they'll think is the greatest ever.

A PC player who doesn't use Steam or GOG is generally going to lack that catalog of games ready to play or at least install on a moment's whim. They're a lot more likely to stick with a game because they don't have the same ease of access to multiple games.

Friends who are playing PS4/5 can act somewhat like Steam users except they're more likely to be playing multiple games at the same time instead of jumping to one and sticking with it until they get bored then jumping to another.

Why the difference? I haven't got a clue. And of course that's all anecdotal based on my gaming friends. Others may notice different patterns with their own friends. I wouldn't say it's the entire Steam player base that acts differently from all other FFXIV players but certainly having that large games catalog sitting right there changes the playing behavior of many.

The problem we're running into with getting a Steam chart graph specific to FFXIV numbers is that we're not getting a comparison point against similar games on Steam and what variation they have in their users. Is this a phenomenon unique to FFXIV and only FFXIV during Endwalker, is it typical of all MMORPGs or is there something else going on?

I know it was typical of WoW post Wrath at least while I was still playing. There would be a huge influx of players both new and returning at the start of an expansion. By the time the first major patch came out, the game would already be down 30% or so. By the last patch, it would be down about 60%. Then the next expansion would release, the majority of players would return so the launch numbers would be similar to the prior launch numbers and the cycle would repeat. I think that held up until Shadowland, when players finally gave up and subscription numbers bottomed out.

It's easy to take a graph with numbers and interpret it anyway you want but it doesn't mean much unless you can establish what activity is considered "normal and healthy" for a particular game. Personal experience with MMORPGs says that number dropping large percentages over the course of an expansion is normal and so even if the 70% drop is accurate, it doesn't alarm me. The numbers will jump back up next Spring as we get close to Dawntrail and players return. If this game was profitable enough in SE's eyes 8 years ago when it had a quarter of the players it had at the start of Endwalker, the current population isn't going to alarm them even if alarms those who are obsessed by how many others are playing the same game they are.

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Originally Posted by Vahlnir

It's about 90 degrees outside. Hard pass.

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That's still a comfy temp as long as it's not humid. I hope it's not humid.

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

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The ones that are the heaviest Steam users are constantly jumping from game to game. Why? Because there's a massive catalog of games to try out at their fingertips and they don't want to chance missing out on stumbling across that one game they'll think is the greatest ever.

A PC player who doesn't use Steam or GOG is generally going to lack that catalog of games ready to play or at least install on a moment's whim. They're a lot more likely to stick with a game because they don't have the same ease of access to multiple games.

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So I am using the standalone right ? And according to you because I have the standalone I dont have steam ?

I'm sorry but what kind of take is this

You can have the standalone, AND STEAM for other games, you literally make no sense