% are a joke when it comes to HQing

Ive had more 75-99% fails compaired to 30-74%. I did again today 6 synths. Making Zircon rings. All hq mats. first was 96% double down and blew up, Second was 71% and it HQ'd. Third was 86% double down and blew up. Fourth was 68% made it. 5th was 76% double down and blew up/ And last was 59% and it made it. Something is messed up here. In the past ive had more of the higher percentages double down and blow up compaired to the mid range percentages. So whats up with this.

If you're bitching about this, then you don't understand the idea of "random" numbers at all...

I have the same chance of HQing a 30% synth and failing a 70% chance synth. Go figure.

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Originally Posted by blackreaper

Ive had more 75-99% fails compaired to 30-74%. I did again today 6 synths. Making Zircon rings. All hq mats. first was 96% double down and blew up, Second was 71% and it HQ'd. Third was 86% double down and blew up. Fourth was 68% made it. 5th was 76% double down and blew up/ And last was 59% and it made it. Something is messed up here. In the past ive had more of the higher percentages double down and blow up compaired to the mid range percentages. So whats up with this.

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Hi, welcome to statistics. A higher probability doesn't guarantee that you'll get more success than a lower probability. It's just (wait for it) more probable.

im not talking about the low percentages. IM talking about the higher percentages. The 75%+ according to that 3 out of every 4 should hq. If not why even post %. 96% is extremely high. And ive had many in the 90s fail. I think there might be an issue with the percentages thats all.

Again, a high probability is not a guarantee of increased success. It simply means success is more probable. At a 96% chance of success, there is still a 4% chance of failure. In either case, 6 attempts is a fairly small sample size. If you had, say, 100 attempts at 90%, and only 20% of those succeeded, then THAT would be a large enough sample size for some evidence. But with only 6, it's highly probable that you just got unlucky.

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Originally Posted by Lux_Rayna

Correct! Its all basic probability theory.

Middle school teaches us to perceive percentages as reduced fractions. Therefore we look at 20% as 1/5, 50% as 1/2, and 33% as roughly 1/3. Of course, we're not completely naive so we tend to expand these fractions up to the denominator of 100. Psychologically, we expect that 100 attempts max will give us the success we are looking for. In this way, 20% is 20/100, 40% is 40/100, and 85% is 85/100. We expect out of 100 attempts max, we should at least get something even if the percentage chance is only 1% (or 1/100).

The fact of the matter is that this is not true. Probability (ie the percentage) is not necessarily a function of 100 attempts. We think of it this way because of education, but probability is literally infinite. You might see 3% over 5 attempts, 10 attempts, 100 attempts, or 10,000 attempts. After all, 3% of 10,000 is 300. You may not see the first of that 300 til the 500 mark, the 1000 mark, or maybe even the 9000 mark. Because of this infinite nature of probability, it is both random and consistent. It is random in that every attempt has an equal chance of succeeding or failing. Try 1 time, or 1000 times...every individual attempt will always give you an 3% chance of success (or whatever the probability is). It is consistent in that, despite these random outcomes, over the long run the 3% probability rate will prove true.

When you do anything that involves probability, you have to understand this and accept it. Even if your success rate was 99%, you could still fail every time for the next 100 attempts. Any chance of failure means that failure is an equal possibility on any inidividual attempt you make. Likely? No. But it is a possibility. Always. If you are gonna embark on this endeavor, the secret is to treat every attempt as a coin toss. People mistakenly believe that every attempt they make raises their chance of success, and this is where they get frustrated. If I believe in the 1/5, or 20/100, by attempt number 4 I'm expecting success, and by attempt 80 I am positive I will succeed very very soon. Unfortunately, probability does not work this way. Every attempt is purely individual and entirely random. Attempt 2 wont have a higher chance of success than attempt 1, and attempt 100 doesn't bring you any closer than attempt 5.

Once you accept this, it wont bother you. Treat every attempt as independent and random, like hitting the restart button. This means to stop counting your attempts, because the number of attempts does not make a difference, nor does it help you. Number of attempts is irrelevant. Attempt 1000 is no different in probability than attempt 1. Stop counting. Every attempt is an independent random outcome. Despite this, you have to trust that as long as you keep trying, you will eventually succeed because probability is also consistent. You dont know *when* this success will start, but you know that it will. In other words, every attempt has a chance of success, and because of that, one attempt will succeed as long as you don't quit.

I know it seems contradictory, but this is the paradox of probabilities as I have read it: random outcome, consistent results. In case any of you are curious, this actually all came from a book on investment psychology. But it applies here, as well as to anything that seems to have a "gambling" nature about it.

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Welcome to probability

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Originally Posted by blackreaper

Ive had more 75-99% fails compaired to 30-74%. I did again today 6 synths. Making Zircon rings. All hq mats. first was 96% double down and blew up, Second was 71% and it HQ'd. Third was 86% double down and blew up. Fourth was 68% made it. 5th was 76% double down and blew up/ And last was 59% and it made it. Something is messed up here. In the past ive had more of the higher percentages double down and blow up compaired to the mid range percentages. So whats up with this.

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Hello and welcome to the wonderful world of probability. Please see Lux_Rayna's post for more details. But if you need a brief synposis:

6 synths is not enough to make the probability present itself. If you wish to proove that 70% is 70% you will need to do more than 6 attempts. More than 100. Some might argue you may need to to 10000 attempts for a 70% probability to present itself.

After you have collected data on at least 10,000 attempts you might start to see a trend. You may need to do 100,000 or 1,000,000 attempts for it to be moer accurate and clear.

Or you could sit in a jail cell and flip a coin 10,000 times to see if 50/50 presents itself ^.^;

Can...not...resist
#umadbro

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v6...tics/vanya.jpg

lol was that like a 2% chance?

I've read all of the above and all of the above is true. The obvious fact here is that SE wants this stuff to be extremely difficult to craft. I'm referring to the new "Difficult to Synth" items, of course.

First off, these items are pleasing to the eye (for the most part), but other than that, the stats on them aren't even great! Second, they are limited to "Classes" and can not be used on jobs. Third, to even have a decent shot at success, you pretty much need to have all of your DoH classes capped to obtain the necessary skills. Now I for one can tell you that I spent a hell of a lot of time leveling up ALL of my DoH classes (with exception of cooking, and it's about 30 now). Now, even after leveling up all of these classes, we have this random BS, which is totally under the control of the SE developers. We have no idea how they have coded their algorithms. The percentages are basically meaningless as Lux_Rayna has so skillfully pointed out.

All this being said, SE has obviously set it up so VERY VERY few of us will succeed in making any of this gear. My advice... leave it alone till they modify their algorithm to allow more success.

I can understand that SE wants to make some things difficult to craft but I believe they have gone overboard on these items. After all, they aren't very good items, and even if they were, the fact that you nearly need all of your DoH classes capped makes these synths difficult enough to succeed at. They could code the algorithm to actually make the percentages based on 100 attempts rather than 1,000 or more (which is probably what they've done).

I know I for one will simply sell the materials I farm rather than waste my effort gathering these HQ mats only to loose most of them trying to synth junk. Just a thought.

Good Luck everyone.

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Originally Posted by Uzziah

I've read all of the above and all of the above is true. The obvious fact here is that SE wants this stuff to be extremely difficult to craft. I'm referring to the new "Difficult to Synth" items, of course.

First off, these items are pleasing to the eye (for the most part), but other than that, the stats on them aren't even great! Second, they are limited to "Classes" and can not be used on jobs. Third, to even have a decent shot at success, you pretty much need to have all of your DoH classes capped to obtain the necessary skills. Now I for one can tell you that I spent a hell of a lot of time leveling up ALL of my DoH classes (with exception of cooking, and it's about 30 now). Now, even after leveling up all of these classes, we have this random BS, which is totally under the control of the SE developers. We have no idea how they have coded their algorithms. The percentages are basically meaningless as Lux_Rayna has so skillfully pointed out.

All this being said, SE has obviously set it up so VERY VERY few of us will succeed in making any of this gear. My advice... leave it alone till they modify their algorithm to allow more success.

I can understand that SE wants to make some things difficult to craft but I believe they have gone overboard on these items. After all, they aren't very good items, and even if they were, the fact that you nearly need all of your DoH classes capped makes these synths difficult enough to succeed at. They could code the algorithm to actually make the percentages based on 100 attempts rather than 1,000 or more (which is probably what they've done).

I know I for one will simply sell the materials I farm rather than waste my effort gathering these HQ mats only to loose most of them trying to synth junk. Just a thought.

Good Luck everyone.

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they make people TRY harder to synth instead of going the safe way, Learn what works for hqing instead of following the same patters all day
yes, OP, its weird that you fail so many 75%+ but you are also right that if you get a 96%, fail and DD for 48% techniquely you should have got the hq per having an over all 72% change to HQ.

were you facing north during a full moon phase?

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Originally Posted by syntaxlies

were you facing north during a full moon phase?

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which ever way your mom is, that's the way I always face while HQ'ing http://weknowmemes.com/wp-content/up...g-skittles.gif

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They could code the algorithm to actually make the percentages based on 100 attempts rather than 1,000 or more (which is probably what they've done).

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I fail to see how 10% of 100 is different from 10% from 1000. It is still a 10% chance.

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Originally Posted by tymora

I fail to see how 10% of 100 is different from 10% from 1000. It is still a 10% chance.

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Tis true...10% is 10% no matter what you do. Its the ugly truth of probability.

what ever happened to "players are guaranteed HQ with all HQ items" :/

I agree with you OP and understand what you are saying. Before math guy replies back, no I do not need further instruction in math, I hold a masters in it.

I am 0 for 31 on triple meld IV attempts. I understand the triple IV attempt side of it. Something that low in % should only happen once or twice to someone over hundreds of attempts. The HQ side though, I can go out right now and fail one 90%+ within 10 attempts. By your percentage theory the two events should occur roughly the same number of times, but I don't have to log into my account to tell you that I have zero triple IV melded gear and have lost count on the number of times I have failed an HQ attempt over 90%. Also look at some of the new ore items, I HQ more 2-3% Darksteel nuggets then I can collect HQ ore for those attempts. Bad/good luck sure, SE FUBAR more like it.

Trying to HQ and I have yet to see a single HQ, my chances have been;
80+40
75+33
80+40
33+16
76+33 (I hq'ed on this last DD)

now what the fark is the probability of not getting a single "success" across all those attempts. Not big at all. SE need to implement something that prevents unlucky players to just roll on a bad luck streak. It really disgusts me how big difference LUCK makes between players. I went 1/11 before I got my first double meld they all had 25% ish success rate.

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Originally Posted by Zozma

Trying to HQ and I have yet to see a single HQ, my chances have been;
80+40
75+33
80+40
33+16
76+33 (I hq'ed on this last DD)

now what the fark is the probability of not getting a single "success" across all those attempts. Not big at all. SE need to implement something that prevents unlucky players to just roll on a bad luck streak. It really disgusts me how big difference LUCK makes between players. I went 1/11 before I got my first double meld they all had 25% ish success rate.

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There's always going to be a factor of luck, there's no way at all around that it's part of life.
Probability is also exponential (probably not the right term but I'm tired)

Lets say you make an item. you have a 50% hq rate.
If you make 2 of them and both have a 50% hq rate you theoretically have a 75% chance of hqing at least one of them.
If you make 3 then you theoretically have a 87.5% chance of hqing at least one of them.
If you make 4 then you theoretically have a 93.75% chance of hqing at least one.

You would look at these 4 items all 50% chances and think you're guaranteed to hq 1 or 2 but in reality theres still a fair chance (6.25%) that you won't hq any.
There's nothing you can do about it. Short of making some crazy as rule where the game says "hey he's made 4 of these and not hq'd any" and have it force hq the next one.

All this is true, Unless SE skewed the random number generator.

Of course it isn't actually random at all, but a pseudo-random number generated by an algorithm so not truly random no matter how you cut it. Only nature can pull off truly random, PCs don't. Seeding the generator helps but even then seeded based on time since epoch you can find a pattern. Seeded w/ the random number generated by a random seed from a random number from a random seed from user input value maybe but do you think they've gone that far?

So after some occasionally HQ now and then I went on a new bad luck streak;
50+25
50+25
48+24
50+25
50+25
48+24
41+20
33 (hq'ed here)

Its just so fustrating to blow everything up cause you are stuck with bad luck, I mean the chances of zero HQ on a case of 6*50% is just like...1.5% yet I fall in that category, and it happens ALL the time with me. *goes cry in a corner*

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Originally Posted by Asiaine

Or you could sit in a jail cell and flip a coin 10,000 times to see if 50/50 presents itself ^.^;

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Actually, I've heard that 55% of the time a coin will be tails because the heads side is slightly heavier. But that's irrelevant. Carry on!

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Originally Posted by Yrusama

Actually, I've heard that 55% of the time a coin will be tails because the heads side is slightly heavier. But that's irrelevant. Carry on!

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That is offset by the fact that sometimes it lands on its edge!

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Originally Posted by Asiaine

That is offset by the fact that sometimes it lands on its edge!

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Which, interestingly, is how the head of my college's chemistry department picked chemistry as his major. The story goes that he was flipping a coin to decide between physics and engineering, and there was a crack in the sidewalk nearby...

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Originally Posted by Zozma

So after some occasionally HQ now and then I went on a new bad luck streak;
50+25
50+25
48+24
50+25
50+25
48+24
41+20
33 (hq'ed here)

Its just so fustrating to blow everything up cause you are stuck with bad luck, I mean the chances of zero HQ on a case of 6*50% is just like...1.5% yet I fall in that category, and it happens ALL the time with me. *goes cry in a corner*

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If it happens all the time, its not bad luck, its bad programming that makes the RNG very dependant on hardware, so some people will have "bad luck" a lot more often than others.
I know this from my own experience.
In another mmo i was plagued by "bad luck" for six months day after day, until i changed my hardware, after that it felt like i was playing in god mode, no more "bad luck" whatsoever.
RNG bugs happen only on certain pc configurations just like ordinary bugs, but unlike ordinary bugs, they are much harder to prove.

RANDOM NUMBERS:

STILL

TOO

RANDOM!!!

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Originally Posted by kaboro

If it happens all the time, its not bad luck, its bad programming that makes the RNG very dependant on hardware, so some people will have "bad luck" a lot more often than others.
I know this from my own experience.

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I really doubt anyone writes their own pseudo-random number generators nowadays when it is part of standard libraries except for really specialized applications. The only limitation of PRNG is that it repeats after a (long) series but you should never see it.

Hardware...possible but its again all standard PC parts.

Go test with /random and do it...say a 1000 times before you start blaming programmers.

http://i.imgur.com/fjMWN.gif

your chances to hq something at 99% does not mean 100%- you could fail 100 time on a 99%chance just base on but the next 10000 succeeds that's still considered 1% chance of faillure-

I was crafting a level 51+ item (Jade Crook), with NQ items only.
Got durability up to just above 300, so I had a 1% chance.
It HQed.

Therefore, I think its fair to say 1% chance does mean greater than 0% probability of success.