Length MSQ from all the expansions - it is getting insane

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

It's a coping mechanism
they keep saying "yeah you have incomplete data", because that way they can feel like they are right

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https://i.giphy.com/media/dxm777kfn45tnR4zYQ/giphy.webp

-Sigh-
Ok buddy.

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Do you think that the people who play on steam have significantly different taste and opinions when it comes to ff14 than those on consoles or on the standalone launcher?

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My point was specifically on using it as a trend in terms of player retention. Taste and opinion are not a factor.

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It's a coping mechanism for them, because they know there wont ever be any sort of number for subscriptions and how much the game retains players over patches and mini patches and expansions, so they keep saying "yeah you have incomplete data",

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To which, by your own words, you have admitted you dont. Unless you actually HAVE said data? If so Id be EXTREMELY interested as to how and where you obtained said numbers..because as has been said, neither SE nor Blizzard makes this information public.

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but they just wont accept that because it doesnt include consoles and standalone.

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Correct.

It doesnt.

My point precisely. Which means it is incomplete. if it was complete..youd have those numbers.

But you dont.

A COMPLETE dataset would include all numbers from all login systems.

If you have far less than one third of the data, whatever conclusions you have will be wildly inaccurate. Thats what we call GIGO. I will be happy to discuss retention with you anytime..provided whatever conclusions you reach are predicated and verified by the raw data used to formulate said conclusion.

Lets put it another way, a patient has come in with blurred vision, headaches, a past history of fainting and migraines. No one with half a brain would even attempt as much as a provisional diagnosis without further tests and examinations..as those symptoms can and have included a multitude of possible disorders.

I submit, therefore, whatever conclusions or"trends" you believe you have identified lack any form of real provenance, and as such are susceptible to further analysis and criticism until such time as you have better and VERIFIABLE evidence on which to base those supposed 'trends".

Until then, I see it as pure conjecture , little else.

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Originally Posted by VelKallor

My point was specifically on using it as a trend in terms of player retention. Taste and opinion are not a factor.



To which, by your own words, you have admitted you dont. Unless you actually HAVE said data? If so Id be EXTREMELY interested as to how and where you obtained said numbers..because as has been said, neither SE nor Blizzard makes this information public.



Correct.

It doesnt.

My point precisely. Which means it is incomplete. if it was complete..youd have those numbers.

But you dont.

A COMPLETE dataset would include all numbers from all login systems.

If you have far less than one third of the data, whatever conclusions you have will be wildly inaccurate. Thats what we call GIGO. I will be happy to discuss retention with you anytime..provided whatever conclusions you reach are predicated and verified by the raw data used to formulate said conclusion.

Lets put it another way, a patient has come in with blurred vision, headaches, a past history of fainting and migraines. No one with half a brain would even attempt as much as a provisional diagnosis without further tests and examinations..as those symptoms can and have included a multitude of possible disorders.

I submit, therefore, whatever conclusions or"trends" you believe you have identified lack any form of real provenance, and as such are susceptible to further analysis and criticism until such time as you have better and VERIFIABLE evidence on which to base those supposed 'trends".

Until then, I see it as pure conjecture , little else.

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Yes you are coping, nothing new there.

You dont need to write a wall of text to explain that.

Until you have subscription numbers per world per job per location, and they are down 90%, the game is thriving and is a "masterpiece"

Just get lost already lmao, I am done talking to people that cant see reason.

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Originally Posted by Saraide

It is a factor because it decides if looking at steam charts is valid or not. If the people are largely the same and like/dislike for the same reasons then looking at steam numbers is valid. The cutoff point for statistics being good enough to not fall pray to statistical errors is at roughly 800 people for sample sizes. Way above that and you dont need to fear statistical errors skewing your results. What sample size wont account for is systematic error. If you want to invalidate using steam charts as sample you need to show that stormpeaks only refering to steam charts is commiting a systematic error. You would do that by showing that console and standalone players have significantly different interests/tastes.

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That is fair tbh, if they did that, I would admit that they are right and that I was mistaken because if that was the case, then more individual numbers would have to be taken as the activities people are doing would be different, so the numbers from the sample wouldnt be right, and wouldnt give an actual trend.

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Originally Posted by VelKallor

My point was specifically on using it as a trend in terms of player retention. Taste and opinion are not a factor.

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It is a factor because it decides if looking at steam charts is valid or not. If the people are largely the same and like/dislike for the same reasons then looking at steam numbers is valid. The cutoff point for statistics being good enough to not fall pray to statistical errors is at roughly 800 people for sample sizes. Way above that and you dont need to fear statistical errors skewing your results. What sample size wont account for is systematic error. If you want to invalidate using steam charts as sample you need to show that stormpeaks only refering to steam charts is commiting a systematic error. You would do that by showing that console and standalone players have significantly different interests/tastes.

It would be cool if upon making an alt the game just recognized that you had a maxed out level 90 dude and let you skip the msq progression junk if you wanted to. But it doesn't even take 3 brain cells to see why that's not an option. Skips sell pretty well. And they wouldn't be able to sell skips if there weren't a powerful incentive to purchase them. Not even sure why people are dancing around this simple fact. Yoshi might be a real nice guy, but Square's a business and they only care about money and this is one way to get it. It's the same reason basic shit like eye color changes are locked behind a fanta.

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Originally Posted by VelKallor

You also have no baseline data from which to draw a comparative analysis...i.i.e player numbers for the last three years, broken down by region etc.

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I'd like to point out that steam charts has data from the moment it was added to steam, so 9 years worth of trends and data.

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Originally Posted by Rolder50

I'd like to point out that steam charts has data from the moment it was added to steam, so 9 years worth of trends and data.

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Which makes it big shame that you only get a picture of steam users like I.
and not of the whole playerbase, it would be good info otherwise.

You can make an Educated guess, but it won't be a approximate one at all sadly.

Thus why it's treated as inadequate cause if people gonna dismiss it in other topics, it's only fair and reasonable to do the same here.
Data Regardless, or not. Not only when it's convenient.

Which requires a sound reason for it's use.
<But since the data is only a fragment like the shards. it wouldn't be fair, for or against any topic.>
Exception only being when it's agreed to be fair/reasonable.

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Originally Posted by Saraide

Do you think that the people who play on steam have significantly different taste and opinions when it comes to ff14 than those on consoles or on the standalone launcher?

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I'll jump in and say most likely. I look at my Steam friends who play FFXIV thru Steam, and I look at my FFXIV friends who play thru the SE launcher, and they have very different tastes. Now, this is just anecdotal evidence on my part, so it's not enough either to draw any definite conclusions, but it also makes sense logically that people playing thru Steam are more likely to be people whose "primary" types of games aren't MMO's. Your more traditional MMO-lover is probably a lot more likely to use the company's own launcher than Steam.

I also put little (read: none) value in Steam numbers because I've never witnessed any apparent correlation between trends there and what I'm actually, physically, literally seeing happen in game. FC activity doesn't drop when Steam numbers drop. Queue times don't go up (even for more obscure content like running a specific Nier raid) when Steam numbers drop. There's nothing I've ever seen change in-game when Steam numbers fluctuate that would suggest the portion of the playerbase represented by those Steam numbers is in any way meaningful or applicable to the playerbase at large.

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Until you have subscription numbers per world per job per location, and they are down 90%, the game is thriving and is a "masterpiece"

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Only I never said this. i said you have incomplete data and until such time as you have a better picture with proof and sources, whatever "trends' you see are a GIGO result. Conjecture. A guess. An estimate based on a faulty premise.

I am correct. You have a quarter of the picture and are throwing a hypothesis in with no real data to back it up.

Did I say I think the story is a masterpiece?

Yes.

is it my opinion?

Yes.

Did I admit it was only my opinion?

Yes.

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Just get lost already lmao, I am done talking to people that cant see reason.

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No

Coming from someone who hears hoofbeats outside a window and thinks its a zebra, pot, kettle, over.

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There's nothing I've ever seen change in-game when Steam numbers fluctuate that would suggest the portion of the playerbase represented by those Steam numbers is in any way meaningful or applicable to the playerbase at large.

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Agreed.

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the people are largely the same and like/dislike for the same reasons then looking at steam numbers is valid

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Thats the rub here, we have no data whatsoever to give any indication one way or the other. I confess I didnt look at your point correctly, I apologise for skimming over it..you are in fact correct.

Tastes and personal likes are indeed a factor.

The moment some dude starts saying that someone from the standalone version and someone from the steam version has different tastes, I am out lmao, this is a thing in general this is not tied to the version of the game you play, please stop trolling.

The level of coping for this game from you guys is just way too high, there will never be any sort of data because they refuse to give them, so yall keep rambling about this "yeah steam numbers are not good enough !!!" "they dont cover enough people", and the only reason why this comes up is because you know very well that they wont ever post these, so you can keep denying any sort of criticism that people have towards the game and act like everything is good and dandy and the game is in a perfectly good state and is not losing players.

I play on standalone, and what I do in the game is mostly housing, I dont do content, yet most people do content or go to venues or hell even do ERP, the point is that people do all sort of activities, this is not related to the platform you play on, seriously just stop already, people do multiple activities in this game and that's just how this game works, except if you can prove that X platform does content and X platform mostly goes to venue and X platform just does housing, what you say literally makes no sense and is just more coping. However if you have evidence that platforms have individual activities or tendencies, ACTUAL evidence, please provide them and I will gladly agree with you.

So why are you drawing wild, unsubstantiated and in fact UNPROVEABLE conclusions on player retention when you dont have any accurate data? You dont know. Those three words may be very hard for you to admit, but its the truth.

You dont know. I dont have an issue with those three words...evidently you do.

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, so yall keep rambling about this "yeah steam numbers are not good enough !!!" "they dont cover enough people",

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No, they dont. You have admitted as much, so why are you staunchly hanging onto what is essentially a GIGO result?

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and the only reason why this comes up is because you know very well that they wont ever post these

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Correct. So, unlike you, I wont be making any false or misleading assumptions based on data I dont have. Aside from my own, albeit anecdotal observations, I have no idea which way things are going.

You, however, seem to set a lot of stock in these so called "perceptions", Id almost call it confirmation bias to a degree. You are jaded, cynical, at times contemptuous towards others who are enjoying the game, as you seem to want to think that the game is bad and they should think as you do...why is that?

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, so you can keep denying any sort of criticism that people have towards the game and act like everything is good and dandy and the game is in a perfectly good state and is not losing players.

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Yet I cant find anyone who has said this. Not in this thread, in any case..I certainly havent, despite the fact you keep trying to put words in my mouth.

As far as I am concerned I am having a blast, currently crafting a Coelacanth - class submarine...actually that name made me smile. The Coelacanth was supposed to have been extinct for millennia..until they started turning up in fishermans nets.

Stormpeaks, we dont know , we may never know the exact state of play, you dont have that data, neither do I. So why draw these silly hypotheses as fact when you dont have reliable, sourced and proveable data? STEAM data on its own is NOT sufficient, nor is it in any way an identifiable or viable metric to gauge any supposed 'trends".

Ill say this again, as it seems you have elided over my previous thread comments. No game is perfect, none will ever be so. There will always be flaws, issues, thats a given in game developement.

Is FF 14 fun for me? Yes.

Do I consider the story a masterpiece? Based on my own reading over the years and other games I have played? Yes.

You seem to take odd delight in telling others how bad the game is and its losing players blah blah....why?

Im at a loss to understand exactly WHAT it is you are trying to say here.

Steam charts is accurate data. You'd have to prove that steam users are significantely different than console and standalone users. What's the reason to assume this? Anectodal evidence does not count. You dont need all the data, you just need a representative sample to draw valid conclusions.

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Originally Posted by VelKallor

So why are you drawing wild, unsubstantiated and in fact UNPROVEABLE conclusions on player retention when you dont have any accurate data? You dont know. Those three words may be very hard for you to admit, but its the truth.

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Ah yes, the data that developers in the past have claimed is very indicative of playerbase, path of exile developer grinding gear games still citing them in their league wrapups, is somehow in FF14 not accurate enough because it goes against your beliefs of a ever growing masterpiece of a game. Must be an easy life to live when you just deny reality 24/7

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Originally Posted by Saraide

Steam charts is accurate data. You'd have to prove that steam users are significantely different than console and standalone users. What's the reason to assume this? Anectodal evidence does not count. You dont need all the data, you just need a representative sample to draw valid conclusions.

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^ this basically. Except if you can prove that people on different platforms do entirely different content

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Originally Posted by Shinkuno

Ah yes, the data that developers in the past have claimed is very indicative of playerbase, path of exile developer grinding gear games still citing them in their league wrapups, is somehow in FF14 not accurate enough because it goes against your beliefs of a ever growing masterpiece of a game. Must be an easy life to live when you just deny reality 24/7

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And this ^

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

The point is story engagement, one story is engaging (FFX) and one is not (FFXIV)

Also yes, it is a good metric, its a sample of a certain percentage of the population, it gives a trend as to if a game is doing good or not.

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You could just link the https://activeplayer.io/final-fantasy-xiv/ and compare it to other games, that is enough to show that the population of XIV is much smaller than people realize. And yes this website takes steam and standalone XIV into consideration.

You could even hurt the XIV white knight ego even more by letting them know that destiny 2 has a higher DAILY active player count than XIV.

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Originally Posted by DixieBellOCE

You could just link the https://activeplayer.io/final-fantasy-xiv/ and compare it to other games, that is enough to show that the population of XIV is much smaller than people realize. And yes this website takes steam and standalone XIV into consideration.

You could even hurt the XIV white knight ego even more by letting them know that destiny 2 has a higher DAILY active player count than XIV.

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Those stats are pretty surprising. The monthly average in players has more or less steadily increased since the endwalker launch. Four months ago the daily average took a sharp dive but the monthly average is seemingly unaffected by that. Also what happened in september 2020?

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Originally Posted by Saraide

Those stats are pretty surprising. The monthly average in players has more or less steadily increased since the endwalker launch. Four months ago the daily average took a sharp dive but the monthly average is seemingly unaffected by that. Also what happened in september 2020?

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Could maybe be Bot/Rtm bans ???

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Originally Posted by Saraide

Those stats are pretty surprising. The monthly average in players has more or less steadily increased since the endwalker launch. Four months ago the daily average took a sharp dive but the monthly average is seemingly unaffected by that. Also what happened in september 2020?

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I heavily doubt those stats are real, they count WoW as having half the monthly players of FFXIV, and half the active players of FFXIV, that's a bit of stretch

Also september 2020 is patch 5.31 https://allpatchnotes.com/final-fant...0-patch-notes/

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I heavily doubt those stats are real

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So those stats arent real but the STEAM ones are. Got it.

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Originally Posted by VelKallor

So those stats arent real but the STEAM ones are. Got it.

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Still waiting for you to prove that people on different platforms play different type of content, guess I'll wait for a very long time.

Also, 2.2 millions active players didnt leave for 5.31. Or did THAT many people get scared by the Ishgard restoration sidequests ?

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Still waiting for you to prove that people on different platforms play different type of content, guess I'll wait for a very long time.

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I never commented on that. If you refer to the taste commentary, I replied to that.

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Also, 2.2 millions active players didnt leave for 5.31. Or did THAT many people get scared by the Ishgard restoration sidequests ?

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Source?

I also go back to my original question: whats with this obsession over player numbers?

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

I heavily doubt those stats are real, they count WoW as having half the monthly players of FFXIV, and half the active players of FFXIV, that's a bit of stretch

Also september 2020 is patch 5.31 https://allpatchnotes.com/final-fant...0-patch-notes/

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Yea, I also expected the endwalker release to have a much higher spike (one that you can very clearly see on steam charts) but on the ones dixiebell linked it's just business as usual mostly.

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Originally Posted by VelKallor

I never commented on that. If you refer to the taste commentary, I replied to that.



Source?

I also go back to my original question: whats with this obsession over player numbers?

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So you are telling me over 2.2 millions active players left because ishgard restoration sidequests came out

alright

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Originally Posted by Saraide

Yea, I also expected the endwalker release to have a much higher spike (one that you can very clearly see on steam charts) but on the ones dixiebell linked it's just business as usual mostly.

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100% it's not right, the peak from EW was much higher than that, my friend list was FULL of people. Like actually full of online players

Was 5.31 the point where the devs were talking about fully deleting old banned characters to free up names and things?

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Originally Posted by Iscah

Was 5.31 the point where the devs were talking about fully deleting old banned characters to free up names and things?

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Even then those wouldnt be monthly active players.

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Originally Posted by VelKallor

So those stats arent real but the STEAM ones are. Got it.

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Yes, a known platform that operated for years is more credible than some random website with no way to know where data is coming from

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Originally Posted by Saraide

Steam charts is accurate data. You'd have to prove that steam users are significantely different than console and standalone users. What's the reason to assume this? Anectodal evidence does not count. You dont need all the data, you just need a representative sample to draw valid conclusions.

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Actually, if you're the one making the claim, the impetus is on you to prove that Steam users are actually similar to console and SE launcher users. None of our anecdotal evidence is sufficient, as we've all mentioned. YOU need to show that the data is actually representative of the larger playerbase and usable for conclusions before it becomes valid.

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Originally Posted by Striker44

Actually, if you're the one making the claim, the impetus is on you to prove that Steam users are actually similar to console and SE launcher users. None of our anecdotal evidence is sufficient, as we've all mentioned. YOU need to show that the data is actually representative of the larger playerbase and usable for conclusions before it becomes valid.

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Or just be logical that the person behind the screen is the same, be it on console or computer, everyone in this game does multiple activities.

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Originally Posted by Striker44

Actually, if you're the one making the claim, the impetus is on you to prove that Steam users are actually similar to console and SE launcher users. None of our anecdotal evidence is sufficient, as we've all mentioned. YOU need to show that the data is actually representative of the larger playerbase and usable for conclusions before it becomes valid.

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Do you have reasons to assume steam users are different? I cant really think of one.

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Originally Posted by Saraide

Do you have reasons to assume steam users are different? I cant really think of one.

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Actually I can give one: Different nationalities, no seriously, let me explain, Steam provides a fixed rate on subscriptions, no matter the exchange rate for your country's currency, you will always pay the same, and in my case, I am from Brazil you see, it's substantially cheaper than paying it directly, this means that Brazilian players are substantially more encouraged to be Steam players, where as for an American player, playing through Steam might actually be a detriment since it provides no real benefit.

I am not saying I agree with their point, rather that there are externuating circumstances that can lead to vastly different demographics(and thus different perspectives) to play through Steam or standalone, and those circumstances might not be immediately obvious unless you are part of it.

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Originally Posted by Striker44

Actually, if you're the one making the claim, the impetus is on you to prove that Steam users are actually similar to console and SE launcher users. None of our anecdotal evidence is sufficient, as we've all mentioned. YOU need to show that the data is actually representative of the larger playerbase and usable for conclusions before it becomes valid.

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That's simply not true. They don't have to prove anything for Steam to be a representative sample of FFXIV players. It either is or is isn't. Whether or not you choose to give it any weight is another question. You've already decided that nothing can change your opinion, and that's fine, there's nothing short of Yoshi-P walking up to you and saying "Hey, actually we notice the Steam population trends follow the global population trends". hell, even then I have a feeling you'd say "hmm, who put you up to this?"

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Originally Posted by Boblawblah

there's nothing short of Yoshi-P walking up to you and saying "Hey, actually we notice the Steam population trends follow the global population trends".

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I mean.....did he?

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Originally Posted by Saraide

Do you think that the people who play on steam have significantly different taste and opinions when it comes to ff14 than those on consoles or on the standalone launcher?

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Since Japanese players almost exclusively use Sony consoles to play the game ... Yes.

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Originally Posted by DPZ2

Since Japanese players almost exclusively use Sony consoles to play the game ... Yes.

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So what you are saying is that the japanese dont do multiple activities like we do on EU and NA

okay buddy

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Originally Posted by Boblawblah

That's simply not true. They don't have to prove anything for Steam to be a representative sample of FFXIV players. It either is or is isn't. Whether or not you choose to give it any weight is another question. You've already decided that nothing can change your opinion, and that's fine, there's nothing short of Yoshi-P walking up to you and saying "Hey, actually we notice the Steam population trends follow the global population trends". hell, even then I have a feeling you'd say "hmm, who put you up to this?"

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It is 100% true. As you actually then said, it either is or it isn't representative. If you are the one trying to use it as if it "is," then the ball falls into your court to demonstrate that it's actually valid. You don't get to just make a random claim and then say it's up to others to prove you wrong. That's not how adulting works. That the rest of your post: A.) Refuses to provide any support to your claim and B.) Just makes stuff up and puts words into my mouth that aren't the least bit true - it shows only that, at its core, you realize that you actually have absolutely no proof to suggest the data you want to use is at all reliable. Case closed until you can provide some evidence suggesting otherwise.

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

So what you are saying is that the japanese dont do multiple activities like we do on EU and NA

okay buddy

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No, what he's saying is they tend to enjoy their consoles more and tend to use their version of something thar NA n EU use. Like Niconico instead of twitch.

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Originally Posted by Striker44

It is 100% true. As you actually then said, it either is or it isn't representative. If you are the one trying to use it as if it "is," then the ball falls into your court to demonstrate that it's actually valid. You don't get to just make a random claim and then say it's up to others to prove you wrong. That's not how adulting works. That the rest of your post: A.) Refuses to provide any support to your claim and B.) Just makes stuff up and puts words into my mouth that aren't the least bit true - it shows only that, at its core, you realize that you actually have absolutely no proof to suggest the data you want to use is at all reliable. Case closed until you can provide some evidence suggesting otherwise.

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You are too much in denial and on copium, honestly it's whatever at this point, I have nothing to prove to you, all FFXIV players are the same, no matter if you play on a gameboy color, a nintendo, a playstation 5, a computer, an xbox, everyone behind the screen is a human and everyone does different activities in the game

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Originally Posted by SannaR

No, what he's saying is they tend to enjoy their consoles more and tend to use their version of something thar NA n EU use. Like Niconico instead of twitch.

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That doesnt change anything about what activities they do, everyone in FFXIV does different activities, be it raiding,housing,fishing, crafting, hanging out, venues, we are all human behind the screen.

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

You are too much in denial and on copium, honestly it's whatever at this point, I have nothing to prove to you, all FFXIV players are the same, no matter if you play on a gameboy color, a nintendo, a playstation 5, a computer, an xbox, everyone behind the screen is a human and everyone does different activities in the game



That doesnt change anything about what activities they do, everyone in FFXIV does different activities, be it raiding,housing,fishing, crafting, hanging out, venues, we are all human behind the screen.

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ok first off. you using multiple accounts to talk with because i don't remember Strikers response being directed towards you. Secondly, yes, we all do various activities but the limitations the game places on them means we all end up doing the same anyways. im not sure what your argument really is here when striker was telling someone they had to back up what they talked about and sanna was jsut commenting that japanese players mainly enjoy playing on console. i mean i get your point but what does your post have to do with anything

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

So what you are saying is that the japanese dont do multiple activities like we do on EU and NA

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This isn't my Conversation, but Im still confused.
What does this have to do with the Japanese Playerbase playing FFXIV on Playstation?

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Originally Posted by Zanarkand-Ronso

I mean.....did he?

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I was kind of wondering that myself. I was curious where we got the idea that Steam was representative of the playerbase as a whole and could therefore be used in statistical analysis to judge trends over all possible platforms. DPZ2 makes a good point that JP plays predominantly on consoles. But I recall numbers given in the past that the JP community tends to have higher Savage numbers. So this could be one place where Steam isn't representative of the playerbase as a whole, because it could be reporting lower numbers than would be reported if the console numbers for Savage were also included. I've just been struggling a bit in this latest conversation what the basis is for using Steam numbers as a predictor of anything except trends among Steam users, because we don't have the numbers for other platforms so it seems to be a big blind spot.