The chance of winning the 3 lines reward of Wondrous Tails is ridiculously low

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Originally Posted by Lewtskie

A raider certainly isn't going to prolong his raid's static so he can have this uber cool penta meld gear he'll replace in a couple weeks of effort. Just as likely, a crafter isn't going to just sit there and not build up their craft and make this gear themselves in hopes that Santa comes early.

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Well here's a very controversial idea. Maybe this content isn't aimed at raiders. Ever thought about that? Lots of different kinds of players play this game. This patch gives a little something to all of them.
Those who are only here for the story get the MSQ, The Scholasticate and Hildibrand.
Others get two new dungeons.
Yet others get Sophia and Normal Alex.
Raiders get Extreme Sophia and Savage Alex.
PVPers get duels and spectator mode.
Poor people get Apartments.
Those who like PotD get new drops and leader boards.
Those who want to do Diadem get new drops.
Yet others get Squadrons.
Even the Gold Saucer gets several adjustments.
So what if Wondrous Tails doesn't appeal to everyone? It doesn't have to.

The ONLY piece of combat gear that Tails - Line 3 will give is chest pieces. Looking at the patch notes, you can identify the Tails rewards as they're prefixed with the word 'Ornate'. So you will always have a choice of a 5 slotted HQ 250 crafted chest, or 1 random piece of Ironworks left side, and most of those don't even require overmelding V's to cap anyways. I think SE's basis was to balance a reward good enough that it shouldn't be handout (because all they're really rewarding is free gil at the end of the day, whether you sell the equip or save materia melding it) and a reward that's not so good that everyone feels forced to beat themselves up over trying to get it (some people are free to do this to themselves anyways). As for the combat chests these will be highly valuable for the next 4 weeks. After people start getting Scripture chests and prototype Alex chests, you'll be looking at a 2-3 million gil reward. Nothing to stress over.

Please, everyone avoid getting too worked up over this. I'm sure something else in this patch will be more deserving of rage

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Originally Posted by HaelseMikiro

Please, everyone avoid getting too worked up over this. I'm sure something else in this patch will be more deserving of rage

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i think the uselessnes of the gear is reason enough to rage ^^

if the chance is really that low the reward is simply not good enough. but as i said earlier in this topic, we don't know yet how rare it really is.

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Originally Posted by Balipu

Well here's a very controversial idea. Maybe this content isn't aimed at raiders. Ever thought about that?

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I did; it's not a difficult thought. Just as easy as it is to realize how useless it will be from the progression cycle of the general player. But apparently you missed that part of the conversation where people were excusing it by saying how useful raiders would find it. I merely gave a reason how that wouldn't be the case.

Different content for different players, who'd have thought? Anyway, read more of the earlier pages and you will see where this comes from.

Where was it shown that the 3 line reward was a piece of gear with 5 slots? Can someone link me?

Finished my first book, will probably also be my last...

Before I did Wonderous Tails I thought it would be at least somewhat skill based and show you which task was linked to which slot, allowing you to plan out which 'set' of tasks you wanted to do for 1/2/3 lines. In short it would be a fun and casual way of getting some small bonuses and guarantee a random piece of i250 gear* once per week assuming you put in a bit of thought and effort; more fool me it's just boring RNG :(

* The WT gear may have 5 materia slots but it is still only i250, and random... anyone can get any piece of i260 (which is up-gradable to i270) in 1-2 weeks and less than a dozen dungeon runs.

PS. At the end of the day it doesn't really matter if WT is any good / worth it or not, as it doesn't remove anything from the game, but it is sad (and disheartening) to see yet another new system made DOA by some very obviously bad design choices.

If you use Second Chance Shuffle to complete any 2 lines, there is a 8.33% to complete the 3rd line. This is because placing your 8th stamp in 6 out of the remaining 9 slots will still build toward a 3rd line. A stamp placed in the remaining 3 slots will not be capable of completing a line. Once this 8th stamp is placed, there is only 1 spot left out of 8 that could possibly finish your 3rd line. Thus, the probability is 6/9 * 1/8 = 1/12 = 8.33%.

http://i.imgur.com/opwOvzw.jpg

You can prove this to yourself by completing any two lines in a stamp card. For example:

http://i.imgur.com/0ZKMd9Z.jpg

Place a stamp in each of the open spots, in sequence. You'll notice that for 6 of those 9 open spots, there is exactly 1 spot that will result in a triple line. The remaining 3 open slots are duds.

I'm still working on the chances of shuffling into a double line formation.

I enjoyed doing my card today! I'm happy :3

Got 10,000 gils today. I don't think it ever took me so long to get that amount of gils before.
I hope Khloe like the book I wrote for her, because that's the only one she'll ever get from me.

From my point of view, SE abuse of rng as casino mode in all the "original" features he proposes. It starts to really becoming boring (and getting on my nerves). I thought about something fun and new... if they want that bad we do old content, they could probably find something more fun and -especially- less random.

ALL interesting things we could get in the update depends of f****ing random : trees, supra craft stuff, etc. everything else is just routine (memo stuff, craftable stuff, token items etc.). We even can't consider this as team work behind because of rng...

VERY VERY disappointing.

Yeah first few weeks those second chances just rains on you, but a bit later those points will be like rain in atacama desert. Besides that i can see that 3 lines is nearly doa and gonna be very very rare, sure those devs will just see data center overall number and'll say - working as intended . However i did enjoy my 2 mgp cards from two lines with extra 100k mgp :)

1:476

Must be one of the best RNG Quotes i´ve ever encoutered in this game...

Like Jumbo Cactopot, it´s probably not supposed to be won by 50% of the Server + you got a ton of 2nd Chance points to gamble even more with it.

what you can probably rant about it, is that each and everybody on the server got the same rewards, even if some have no use for tank and dragoon chestpieces besides selling it and buying the right one...

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Originally Posted by axemtitanium

I'm still working on the chances of shuffling into a double line formation.

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I already did the work on this if you're interested. 32/11440 7-seal cards have two lines, so you have a 0.28% chance to shuffle into one. However, of those, only 16 have three ways (8.3% chance) to make the 3rd line. 8 have two ways (5.6% chance), and 8 have one way (2.8% chance). Overall, the average two-line 7-seal card has a 6.25% chance to become a three-line card when the last two seals are added.

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Originally Posted by axemtitanium

If you use Second Chance Shuffle to complete any 2 lines, there is a 8.33% to complete the 3rd line.

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the probability is 6/9 * 1/8 = 1/12 = 8.33%.

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That only applies to one diagonal line and one horizontal/vertical, of which there are 16 combinations.

If you have one horizontal and one vertical line, there is only one diagonal combination that works, so odds are 2/9 * 1/8 = 1/36. There are also 16 of those combinations.

That means a 7 sticker shuffle gives a 1/715 chance of a two line that has a 1/12 chance of triple, and a 1/715 chance of a two line that has a 1/36 chance of a triple. It's worth holding on to if you get it, but not something to keep shuffling until you do.

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Originally Posted by StouterTaru

That only applies to one diagonal line and one horizontal/vertical, of which there are 16 combinations.

If you have one horizontal and one vertical line, there is only one diagonal combination that works, so odds are 2/9 * 1/8 = 1/36. There are also 16 of those combinations.

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You're missing the horizontal+vertical cards where both diagonals work, the ones where one line is at an edge row and the other line is in one of the middle columns, and vice versa.

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Originally Posted by wicked-one

[...] + you got a ton of 2nd Chance points to gamble even more with it.

what you can probably rant about it, is that each and everybody on the server got the same rewards, even if some have no use for tank and dragoon chestpieces besides selling it and buying the right one...

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you get more 2nd chances in the first week because of all the new content with a lot of first timers. that means tanks and dragoons have it easier to get their chest than any other job. and how will you buy the right piece of gear when all pieces are for the same 2 jobs..?

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Originally Posted by Raikki

You're missing the horizontal+vertical cards where both diagonals work, the ones where one line is at an edge row and the other line is in one of the middle columns, and vice versa.

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OK see that now, so it's:
3/1430 chance at 1/12
1/1430 chance at 1/36

It's still only 24 double possibilities at 7 stickers, and several times as many combos that are potential triples without two full lines.

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Originally Posted by StouterTaru

It's still only 24 double possibilities at 7 stickers, and several times as many combos that are potential triples without two full lines.

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824/11440 (7.2%) of 7-seal cards have the potential to turn into 3 Line cards. The average probability of obtaining a 3-Line card from one of those is 2.9%.

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Originally Posted by Tint

you get more 2nd chances in the first week because of all the new content with a lot of first timers. that means tanks and dragoons have it easier to get their chest than any other job. and how will you buy the right piece of gear when all pieces are for the same 2 jobs..?

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I agree, finding first timers will become very hard later on and they should consider an alternate way to get those 2nd chances (maybe buying with tome stones?) but lets be fair:

I am surprised that they let us have "unlimited" 2nd chances!
True it is capped at 9 but after using them up you can refill if you like...
It is a thin thread of "hope"... and i like it.

Edit: To replace a mission with an other one is very good, but still with RNG and thats not so good... I like expert run (each day) and i can get a sticker each time, its a good feature - not forcing us to do other content if we dont like!!

Well, I never did trial extreme and Coil/Alexandrer. Is then it useless I do this quest? Even only trying to win simple reward? I am happy only with 500 poetics or 10.000 gil xD

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Originally Posted by Tint

you get more 2nd chances in the first week because of all the new content with a lot of first timers. that means tanks and dragoons have it easier to get their chest than any other job. and how will you buy the right piece of gear when all pieces are for the same 2 jobs..?

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Crafters, hello? ;-)

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Originally Posted by RyuSaarva

yeah and if you do get it, you save like 30-40 million because you don't need to overmeld.

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Spot on or at the same time become rich without being a crafter

Meh. I'm not gonna sweat about getting 3 lines; the rewards for it don't even appeal that much to me. i250 armor in a patch where the latest tomes are giving i260, almost certainly soon to be upgradeable to i270? Snore. Raiders might care about stuff like that, but I'm not one.

I managed 2 lines with only a couple of shuffles. It gave me 1 line and a 3/4 setup for another, and my 8th seal got the 2nd line. Granted, I know even getting 2 lines is usually going to be up to luck, but if you shuffle enough such that you get a similar setup (1 completed line + 3/4 of the way to another line), you should have at least a half decent chance of completing the 2nd one every now and then.

[19:36]You obtain 500 Allagan tomestones of poetics.
[19:36]You obtain a fragment of Mhachi demimatter.
[19:36]You obtain 2 MGP platinum cards.

Considering I got this by doing a bunch of easy stuff (including soloing Sastasha unsynced 5 times), I'm rather pleased.

Was it just me or did everyone get the same duties again this week?

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Originally Posted by wicked-one

Crafters, hello? ;-)

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Considering their prices, not even an option ^^"

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Originally Posted by Genaxx

Was it just me or did everyone get the same duties again this week?

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I have the same duties. I know someone else who has a few duties that changed.

Mine changed, even though some are still the same, such as the top row (which I'm guessing never changes)

My guess is that it's like hunt bills and there's only a limited number of "sets"

RNG sucks.... Doesn't matter where you stick RNG its always going to end up sucking. FFXIV has finally lost touch with their creative side. If RNG is all they can come up with like sticking a hair style in PoTD and expecting people to love it then the devs and creative team have completely lost touch with the players. Devs go back to the drawing board and rethink this. I dont mind grinding something out as long as its fun to do. This is a game please start treating it as one. We come to relax and enjoy the game... We do not logon and then dread doing any of the content because it feels like work or a tedious choir....

3.4 just released and I already feel like dropping sub at the end of this month.... I use to look forward to patch releases now I cringe at the sight of them wondering that it couldn't get any worse then last patch... then of course i see that the devs put in more RNG...... This whole patch is layered in RNG... Do the devs hate us this much ? Do they want us to play a different game?

RNG...RNG...RNG...RNG...RNG..RNG...RNNNNG...wahhhhh...I can't get what I want on second 1.

You can always come back 6 months later when everything been nerfed to the ground and try again.

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Originally Posted by Natashio

RNG...RNG...RNG...RNG...RNG..RNG...RNNNNG...wahhhhh...I can't get what I want on second 1.

You can always come back 6 months later when everything been Nerf to the ground and try again.

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so u like rng? btw who said anything about not having to get it the second it comes out? I do enjoy a system where you work towards goals. I dont care if it takes 2 months as long as I make real progress. RNG is nothing more than a overrated gambleing system...The system itself is genious because it makes you become addicted...."I'll run it one more time I am sure it will drop in the next run"....Fast forward 3 hours later and on your 15th run while frustrated...."Im sure I will get it on my next run through"....

RNG is not a proactive system its proven that in the long run players will end up hating the game more than actually enjoying the game. RNG is a dated system that needs to be replaced with a "goal" system.

For some reason when people hear someone hating the system you all of sudden think they are lazy... This is not the case. I have all jobs to 60 and almost all crafting jobs at 60. I enjoy leveling up in this game far more than the endgame. Main reason is i can set goals and make real progress every time I login. Again I would rather see a terrible goal system than the best rng system any day of the week.

It's supposed to be rare. This is like running into a convenience store and complaining the lottery is too hard to win.

Just over a week and I hate the system already. RNG being RNG aside, there is nothing here that I can't get without RNG being a factor. Mind you, I am NOT wanting this stuff thrown at me. I feel the gamble simply does not justify the reward. The 3 line gear is either redundant if you are going for a 4* crafter due to you practically being there with full blue gear already, or gearing up combat class due to currency and i260. The 5 slots ARE nice, but not enough to motivate me to attempt that degree of gating. V materia for the first line however is rather enticing, but still something that seems secondary at best to attempt. If I were to "go for it", it would be a side effect of helping friends out and not the DF which the latter of is what I think S-E was going for with Wondrous Tails.

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Originally Posted by Khanscott

snip

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It takes zero effort to do most of them. All 9 stickers can be done in an hour, maybe two, and you either get some nice goodies for your time or you get meh rewards and nothing is lost.

I like how people are acting like this is some horrible thing that they need the rewards from.. but it didn't exist before and people were fine. It's a bonus, not meant to be something you grind out to get the best reward. Just like the cactpot.

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Originally Posted by Astral145

Again I would rather see a terrible goal system than the best rng system any day of the week.

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Tails is both? The goal really is just to get 9 seals every week so that existing players have more of a reason to experience old content. It's only range if you try to get any reward better than that.

Maybe they should make the 9 seals thing a little better like 150-200 Scripture so that at least every one tries to complete it.

If you use your secondary points to shuffle your stickers round, the odds of getting three lines is 36/1

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Originally Posted by randysquirrel

If you use your secondary points to shuffle your stickers round, the odds of getting three lines is 36/1

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its not that rosy, your best bet is to shuffle to get 2 lines and then you have to get next 2 stickers in perfect place, it is much much lower. Those 3 line rewards are miracle worthy to get and to boot SE havent put yet ornate ironworks gear there, they are testing their waters to see how often and how many ppl get actualy get those 3 line rewards.

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Originally Posted by RyuSaarva

yeah and if you do get it, you save like 30-40 million because you don't need to overmeld.

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It's funny cause the people who actually need i250 pentamelded with Vs already have multiple i270 gear pieces and will most likely be full i270 before they win this. And to add up, while you can meld pentameld primaries in that the stats are capped with secondaries being complete trash.

The only real advantage is winning a crafting/gathering chestpiece but then, we're 6 months away from a expac which will make all the current crafting gear obsolete.

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Originally Posted by gzuscry

its not that rosy, your best bet is to shuffle to get 2 lines and then you have to get next 2 stickers in perfect place, it is much much lower. Those 3 line rewards are miracle worthy to get and to boot SE havent put yet ornate ironworks gear there, they are testing their waters to see how often and how many ppl get actualy get those 3 line rewards.

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The ornate ironworks won't be much more valuable than the battle gear; only the body would ever use more than 2 tier 5's to cap stats. Belt would use an overmeld too due to 1 guaranteed slot, but there's no ornate belt.

...and no you don't save 30-40 million on overmelds. If a tier 5 is 300k you save on average, 9.6m. Sure you could have bad rng but probably not going to do 3-4 times worse than average.

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Originally Posted by Laurima

oh look another thread moaning about not getting the best rewards for minimal effort -_-

Yeesh ><

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I think you don't understand what 'minimal' means. At least half of the required sticker's instances will take roughly 20 minutes, so that's 4.5 * 20 = 90 minutes. An hour and a half just to get half the needed stickers. Assume the other 4.5 need only about 30 minutes, giving us a total of 120 minutes to get 9 stickers.

Two hours is not bad at all!

But when you take into account the net amount of time it would take to get the best reward, well, that could be figured out by taking the assumed time, and multiplying it by the probability of successfully getting 3 lines which which is stated at 1 in 476. So, 120 * 476 = 57120 minutes or 950 hours worth of content to guarantee that you get the drop. If you did this everyday, it would take yo over a year to guarantee the best reward.

This is all under the assumption that: 1. all 9 stickers take the same amount of time to acquire, 2. that after reaching the end of the stack that you WILL get the drop (because in probability it could take more or less than the accounted 476 tries), and 3. there is no second chance points, 4. Worst case scenario! Thinking on average, then it would be near half that value, so, say, 1 in 230 or 476 hours. Still, 476 hours is quite long XP Huh. just noticed what i got matched the probability :/ Might have done something wrong T_T

What I am trying to state is that this is, by no means, a 'minimal effort' way of getting something. If anything, this takes more effort than anything else in the game, short of the Anima weapons.