For many months I thought the HQ % meant that probability with each hit at the node. Alas, it really means your overall chance of getting HQ for all hits combined. To achieve this effect SE actually lowers your % chance after you are successful. In effect, the % is a soft cap.
Take the example of 67% HQ chance. With 4 hits the chance that all 4 hits will be successful is, statistically .67*.67*.67*.67 = 20%. Now, not only do I not see every 5th node yield HQ on every hit I have NEVER seen it happen at all! This means that SE reduces your next hit chance after a success.
For example, if your HQ chance is 41% and you got HQ on the first of 4 hits, your chance of getting HQ is now effectively reduced to 16%. Get a second HQ success and your chance is now reduced to near 0% for the last two. I say near zero because I have actually seen my botanist get 4 HQ hits (a couple times). But never on my miner.
It would be nice if SE would update the HQ % to be real-time as the node progresses.
HQ % is misleading
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09-01-2019, 11:21 PMKenyonHQ % is misleading
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09-01-2019, 11:40 PMTristann
I call bs. Do you have any significant proof for your claim? When I go on a long farming session, about 1/6 of the gathered materials are HQ which matches quite the standard max 15%.
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09-01-2019, 11:55 PMIscah
Speaking as a non-pro gatherer with no idea what high stats/melding do... do you really have a 67% HQ chance on every node?
If not, the base of your logic is off.
In any case, my experience has been that my average proportion of HQ materials from a gathering session generally matches the HQ percentage chance I had. -
09-02-2019, 12:07 AMTristannOfc not, only which have the perk +HQ%. Base max was and is always 15%.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iscah
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09-02-2019, 01:11 AMAlien_Gamer
Each time you whack a node you get another gather and hq roll. These rolls have no effect on future rolls. It works the exact same as flipping a coin, your chance of getting heads 10 times in a row is low but each time you flip its a 50/50 chance to get heads.
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09-02-2019, 01:30 AMIscahRight, that sounds more probable.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tristann
So at very least, your phrasing that "every fifth node should yield HQ on every hit" is misleading because you're actually talking about "every fifth node with a chance of 67%" which is still once per cluster of six nodes, I assume? In which case it's not every fifth node but every thirtieth that has a 20% chance of an all-HQ run.
On top of that, even if it was every fifth node, it's still a chance rather than a guarantee. If you could be certain of getting your "20% chance" to trigger within five attempts, that would suggest they're secretly adjusting the system to improve your odds if anything. -
09-02-2019, 04:21 AMKenyonCall BS all you like - doesn't change the facts. And frankly you are making my case - note where I said the HQ chance is all hits combined. That is what you are experiencing. Regardless I was talking about the instantaneous % just before you hit the node which often is not the figure you see displayed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tristann
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09-02-2019, 04:25 AMKenyonWhen you become more of a pro-gatherer you will discover an action called 'Unearth III' which grants 30-100 increase in HQ percent. That is how one gets to 41% or 67% (speaking about the new nodes in Shadowbringers.) The way I mine is only with 'Unearth III'. Generally if I do not have the GP for it I do something else. Hence all my samples for this discussion are using that action.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iscah
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09-02-2019, 04:31 AMKenyonMy point was that it is absolutely not like flipping a coin at all - only on the first attempt for sure. I have mined over a 1000 nodes at 67%. With a sample size that large, on the average I should get 200 nodes where each hit yielded HQ. But I have never seen it! Yes, statistically it could happen but my sample size is statistically significant therefore I gotta go with observational data which implies otherwise.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alien_Gamer
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09-02-2019, 04:42 AMKenyonNot sure I understand your point. If I cannot use Unearth III i do not hit the node so it is indeed every node I'm taking about at 67%. But it seems like you might know something about statistics. If my % calculation is wrong (I got it off the internet and am not a math major) please correct me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iscah
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09-02-2019, 05:24 AMKsenia
In my experience over gathering sessions, 500 NQ means 100 HQ. That's from hitting the INS key 600 times, no GP use, just 100% Gather rate, 15% HQ on standard nodes.
What I have noticed is that even if I force HQ where GP allows, it will work out roughly the same. If you have 700GP you can force most nodes before ShB to 100% HQ and get all 4 hits to 4X gather for 16 HQ. All that does though is bring down the 'random' HQ amounts, or so I find. In the end I still end up with an average of 100 HQ to 500 NQ.
I'm at the point and assume most others are as well, Actual gathering is done with collectors glove on and farming is done by retainers so that's all retrospect. -
09-02-2019, 05:50 AMIscahThe calculation is right but your conclusion is wrong. Missing a "20% chance" four times in a row doesn't guarantee it on the fifth - and you're looking at the wrong statistic anyway because (assuming it is truly random) it's all about the individual chances per gathering attempt.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenyon
The simplest way of understanding it is that there is no "running tally" for random chance. You might have your 67% HQ chance and miss three times on a particular node - and yet it does not increase your chances of getting something on the fourth. You still have the same 33% chance of failure that you had on the first attempt.
Your 67% chance, if consistent, means that you are likely to have something in the realm of 67 HQ items and 33 NQ items after a hundred attempts. It's even more likely to reach those proportions over a thousand, or million, collected results.
But short-term you'll see variations. Runs of good or bad luck. None of them affect what you'll get on your next swing.
The breaking up of your string of HQ/NQ results into "chunks" of four chances doesn't help either. Maybe you regularly have a string of six HQ in a row but split over two nodes, and so consider neither of them to fulfil your "20% chance of four in a row".
It also just seems unlikely to me that nobody has noticed your proposed "reduced chances" until now. -
09-02-2019, 05:52 AMShadygrove
Kenyon, your math is off.
Also search "gambler's fallacy." -
09-02-2019, 06:43 AMKenyonGlad to hear the calculation is right. I have never suggested a guarantee at all. In fact we agree on this: its all about the individual chance per gathering attempt. Can you answer this: if something has a chance of happening 20% of the time and has never happened in 1000 attempts is it really 20%?Quote:
Originally Posted by Iscah
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09-02-2019, 06:45 AMKenyonLove to see the correct math equation if you please.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadygrove
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09-02-2019, 07:13 AMIscahQuote:
Originally Posted by Kenyon
Suggesting you should expect to see a 4xHQ node at every fifth node is suggesting a guarantee that your one-in-five chance will happen within five attempts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenyon
Because the maths is more complex than that simple calculation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenyon
That statistic indicates that at any time, there is a 20% chance that your next four attempts will yield HQ. That string of four, if you get it, will not necessarily line up with the intervals of four attempts at one node. (I assume that would make it 20% x 25% = only a 5% chance that a run of four would line up with being attempt 1 to attempt 4 at a single node.)
So if you are judging your stats by picking out one small possibility and judging your results on that, rather than how many individual times you get HQ/NQ, that's going to be an inaccurate measure of your actual luck.
Also, look at it this way: on any one node, you have four chances at the one-in-three outcome of an NQ item. The short-term odds of it disrupting your string of luck are pretty good, even if overall you got three HQ and one NQ - a 75% success rate, above your predicted average chance. -
09-02-2019, 09:19 AMKenyonReporting an observation that implies a statistical probability is no guarantee of anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iscah
But I will grant you one concession: I never considered that I could have 3 HQ hits to end one node and the beginning of the next node give HQ which results in four consecutive HQ strikes. Hence, you are right, it could have happened but I did not see it as I was not tracking cross nodes. -
09-02-2019, 09:24 AMMhaeric
Random is random and so streaks are expected. If you're not seeing streaks then it is not sufficiently random. Ergo, people posting streaks as evidence that it is not random are getting it completely backwards.
Also, there is no adjustment of the HQ percent based on previous hits. Each hit is independent, aside from possibly being modified by actions which may be influenced by previous hits. The number listed on a node is the actual chance for that hit. -
09-03-2019, 06:54 AMShadygroveIt is the assumptions in your math that are wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenyon
Each try is its own independent universe with no tie in with any preceding or following attempt. If your HQ chance is 41% and you got HQ on the first of 4 hits you have a 41% chance on every subsequent attempt.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadygrove
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09-03-2019, 07:11 AMCanadane
RNG is RNG bro.
There was a dev response about this translated for us to read: http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...Random-Comment -
09-04-2019, 04:38 AMStepjam
The chance to HQ doesn't go down after mining an HQ successfully unless you were using a one swing skill to increase HQ chance.
Lets say a node natively has 50% chance to HQ. If you get an HQ the first swing, the second swing is still 50%, it hasn't gone up or down. To think it does change is just gambler's fallacy