LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

What exactly are we supposed to do about it?

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Originally Posted by hydralus

What exactly are we supposed to do about it?

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There's nothing that anyone here needs to do anything about.

It's just a talking point and there are a lot of different opinions as usual.

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Originally Posted by Striker44

Or perhaps it's almost like you can't accept that FFXIV is doing well, so people logically point out the flaws whenever the next person comes along and makes the same erroneous claims...

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Yes, it's doing so well that my FC that has a long storied history of multiple world firsts and a roster of players that used to log in every day without fail is now a graveyard.

Sure, the game seems to be doing fine as far as new players goes, but it's not retaining the old ones anymore and that will be a very real concern the second the competition gets it's act together and a new shiny MMO comes along that doesn't immediately self destruct.

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Originally Posted by Ivtrix

I really dislike this arrogance. "shut up and know your place, daddy SE knows better than you"

people like you are really annoying

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Tell us then what the point of threads like this is. Who is it trying to convince and about what?

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

Yet it probably should have been expected considering the main story arc that has existed since 2.0 was concluded in 6.0 instead of being continued.

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I doubt, that the story arc is the reason why people are quitting the game. :) The youtuber Zepla has made some videos why EW is in that state.




Cheers

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Originally Posted by Saraide

Tell us then what the point of threads like this is. Who is it trying to convince and about what?

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The OP doesn't want to say why he made this post.

Says a lot about the nature of its purpose when they plainly state they refuse to say.

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Originally Posted by Larirawiel

I doubt, that the story arc is the reason why people are quitting the game. :) The youtuber Zepla has made some videos why EW is in that state.




Cheers

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I've watched some of those videos. I've also read the many arguments and disagreements that her first video on the topic generated because everyone in the player base has their own take on what affects them. I've also seen some players bring up points that she didn't make.

The funny thing is that her own reason for temporarily quitting was simply burn out and she stressed that at the start of that first video. Could it be that many other players are also simply burned out at last but they don't recognize it such and so are trying to pass it off as other things?

Some mention a lack of content and yet Endwalker introduced just as much content as Shadowbringers if you break all of the new additions down.

Some mention a lack of grinds and yet there are a large number of grinds to choose from that most haven't touched.

Some talk about a lack of rewards and yet where has content noticeably deviated the rewards system from what it had been in past expansions? Could the problem be that SE made it easier to get gear from Savage since that's the only content I can think of that did deviate from the past?

^please explain How endwalker released as much content as ShB let alone stormblood

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Originally Posted by Larirawiel

I doubt, that the story arc is the reason why people are quitting the game. :) The youtuber Zepla has made some videos why EW is in that state.




Cheers

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Its not the main reason but its been a driving feeling with most people Ive seen who has quit the game

Honestly, i think its over for ffxiv... that 4gamer interview made it clear yoship only cares about casuals and japanese players. the game wont die. but the funding will not be there to support the games current development ambitions anymore.

square makes honestly so many strange bad buisness decisions as seen in the cash shop.. but to go as far as to kill there own game in its peak.. i just.. i feel like its intentional? or just designed to see how far they can push players before players push back

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

The OP doesn't want to say why he made this post.

Says a lot about the nature of its purpose when they plainly state they refuse to say.

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question to relevance? otherwise just comes off as ad hominem

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

The funny thing is that her own reason for temporarily quitting was simply burn out and she stressed that at the start of that first video. Could it be that many other players are also simply burned out at last but they don't recognize it such and so are trying to pass it off as other things?

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burned out from having nothing to do? thats the strangest burn out ive ever heard of

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Originally Posted by Tahbitha

If the FF XIV player population is in decline... why have I experienced a login queue, of consistent length, every single time I've logged into the game in the past 18 months?

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for the 1st time in 3 years of playing this game almost daily, i have not had a login que now since the start of september.

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

Tin foil hat theory: Sony is still interested in purchasing SE but doesn't like the current price. They're giving SE bad advice about releasing PS exclusives so sales of new titles are lower because of the lack of additional platforms. That worries investors so the stock price falls. Lower stock price means lower price for Sony when they reappear to make the attempt to purchase SE as a counter Microsoft's recent acquisitions.

I know how much people like to mock with "small indie company" but when you're comparing them against the giants like Sony and Microsoft, it's a lot closer to the truth for SE than some think.

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Even for a tin foil theory, I'm inclined to agree. Not that Square Enix has ever needed help making terrible decisions but their buddy relationship with Sony does make you wonder who is helping who here. Not to mention, Sony has to be a little more desperate now that Microsoft is buying out the likes of Activision.

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Originally Posted by Supersnow845

^please explain How endwalker released as much content as ShB let alone stormblood

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To be fair, it terms of quantity it's roughly similar depending how you fudge the numbers. Quality, on the other hand...

Endwalker's biggest issue isn't the amount of content being released per se but rather it's poor execution. Stuff like Island Sanctuary and Criterion would be fine, if they were completely barebones or lacking any rewards, respectively.

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Originally Posted by Ivtrix

I really dislike this arrogance. "shut up and know your place, daddy SE knows better than you"

people like you are really annoying

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As I said, either the data is completely wrong or it's not accurate.

In regards of data of metric and statistics, yes, SE knows better than you. If telling the truth means arrogance, so be it.

Don't we have more than enough materials for criticisms already? You don't have to resort to false data.

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Originally Posted by Aword3213

As I said, either the data is completely wrong or it's not accurate.

In regards of data of metric and statistics, yes, SE knows better than you. If telling the truth means arrogance, so be it.

Don't we have more than enough materials for criticisms already? You don't have to resort to false data.

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False data = valid data you disagree with because it doesn't fit what you believe in

Understood

Data is prolly accurate but delegating the decline to "EW no bueno" isnt, we got a post covid boom of game releases and in all likelihood we wouldve seen a sharp decline anyway.

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Originally Posted by Denji

i mean there's no endgame content rn beyond waiting for a pathetic few drips of story to come pissing down on us unless you're interested in savage content where you're not allowed even a minuscule amount of leeway or originality of thought without taking a billion dots, debuffs, vuln stacks and causing the entire raid to wipe.

what's the point in having HP if every little mistake causes your death. what's the point of playing if you can just make a flat list of each mechanic and how to resolve it. what's the point in having a healer if they can't save you or anyone else since a single mistake means y'all might as well start over anyway.

bozja and eureka - as much as people like to screamcry about them - were a good middle ground/introduction to savage-like content and there's now a rift between casual players and endgame content runners that's preventing new people from being introduced to it. this means there's more people leaving than people joining raid statics.

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Just quoting for emphasis.

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Originally Posted by Hanayumi

Data is prolly accurate but delegating the decline to "EW no bueno" isnt, we got a post covid boom of game releases and in all likelihood we wouldve seen a sharp decline anyway.

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https://steamcharts.com/app/306130#All
https://steamcharts.com/app/238960#All
https://steamcharts.com/app/212500#All
https://steamcharts.com/app/582660#All


Roughly comparable games. But they do not show that sharp decline like FF14. So the reason for this decline in FF14 is propably not covid-19. :)



Cheers

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Originally Posted by sindriiisgaming

for the 1st time in 3 years of playing this game almost daily, i have not had a login que now since the start of september.

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I have queues to log in all the time in Primal, but I live in a full world, Excalibur.
That said, for being "the largest MMO", queues in DF for anything that isn't Free Trial content are excruciatingly slow for anyone not playing a healer, and PF any day has only 2 to 5 parties for current content and the rest are venues, ERP and illegal gambling.
Like, people mock PSO2NGS for it's current condition but we aren't that far from that. NGS should have crashed and burned a long time ago but ERP whales are singlehandedly keeping it afloat and giving revenue to Sega. Why do you think SE turns a blind eye to gambling venues, increased their focus on cash shop, and for all it seems Dawntrail has the vibe it was made for venue crowds.
SE probably has found in them a stable source of income. The strategy now isn't about bringing new players or keeping veterans in, it's about keeping the real spenders on even if they lose a chunk of the playerbase in the process.

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

Not lost players. Active characters who have achievements posted publicly (ie visible to other players on Lodestone) and had achievement completions in previous quarters but did not have new achievement completions registered for the reported quarter.

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how do u know they are active? they were active in prev quarter but unconfirmed for the next bc they didnt gain any achievement. idk maybe this graph just sucks

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Originally Posted by Aldath

I have queues to log in all the time in Primal, but I live in a full world, Excalibur.
That said, for being "the largest MMO", queues in DF for anything that isn't Free Trial content are excruciatingly slow for anyone not playing a healer, and PF any day has only 2 to 5 parties for current content and the rest are venues, ERP and illegal gambling.
Like, people mock PSO2NGS for it's current condition but we aren't that far from that. NGS should have crashed and burned a long time ago but ERP whales are singlehandedly keeping it afloat and giving revenue to Sega. Why do you think SE turns a blind eye to gambling venues, increased their focus on cash shop, and for all it seems Dawntrail has the vibe it was made for venue crowds.
SE probably has found in them a stable source of income. The strategy now isn't about bringing new players or keeping veterans in, it's about keeping the real spenders on even if they lose a chunk of the playerbase in the process.

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Once again the queues dont mean the game servers are full, the login servers log in people in groups instead of individually and that's why there is a delay.

Newsflash: Gamers move on from 10 year old game after the numbers are significantly boosted during a mf pandemic, subscription numbers decline

Get a life!

The expansion is winding down and the WoW exodus to FFXIV slowed with the release of Dragonflight because apparently it fixed a lot of the issues people had with that game. There's also been a ton of new amazing games released since Spring through to this Fall so people have been taking Yoshi P's advice to take a break and enjoy other games. Lastly, inflation was crazy and wages have not caught up. Many economies internationally have begun to enter a recession, the US while having avoided an outright recession (for now) has the average citizen completely leveraged between high rent / housing prices, credit card debt and auto debt being at all time highs, and student loan repayments beginning again. Childcare expenses have skyrocketed to the moon as well.

None of this is surprising. FFXIV will be in trouble if Dawntrail does not change somethings up but right now this is a normal trend given everything listed above.

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Originally Posted by Morphiana

The expansion is winding down and the WoW exodus to FFXIV slowed with the release of Dragonflight because apparently it fixed a lot of the issues people had with that game. There's also been a ton of new amazing games released since Spring through to this Fall so people have been taking Yoshi P's advice to take a break and enjoy other games. Lastly, inflation was crazy and wages have not caught up. Many economies internationally have begun to enter a recession, the US while having avoided an outright recession (for now) has the average citizen completely leveraged between high rent / housing prices, credit card debt and auto debt being at all time highs, and student loan repayments beginning again. Childcare expenses have skyrocketed to the moon as well.

None of this is surprising. FFXIV will be in trouble if Dawntrail does not change somethings up but right now this is a normal trend given everything listed above.

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That's a lot of excuses for what is simply an unpopular expansion.

To you.

I like it, a lot of people here like it.

What's more likely? Your anecdotal experience being the primary reason people are leaving the game (despite you still being here it seems) or the number of factors including a multitude of really cool games that came out and the expansion winding down with some people leaving because they are not happy with the current state of things?

It's never just one reason if things aren't literally on fire and FFXIV is a far cry from being 1.0 again.

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Originally Posted by Morphiana

To you.

I like it, a lot of people here like it.

What's more likely? Your anecdotal experience being the primary reason people are leaving the game (despite you still being here it seems) or the number of factors including a multitude of really cool games that came out and the expansion winding down with some people leaving because they are not happy with the current state of things?

It's never just one reason if things aren't literally on fire and FFXIV is a far cry from being 1.0 again.

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"My anecdotal experience" as both steamcharts and luckybancho show a huge decline.

Sure lmao

I stubbed my toe this morning. I blame yoshi P for it, might as well add that to your list of excuses

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

"My anecdotal experience" as both steamcharts and luckybancho show a huge decline.

Sure lmao

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Do you... Not understand charts? The chart did not do any survey or show any data on why people have left the game.

What you're saying is correlational. You zero proof that your personal experience is what is causing a decline, you're making that assumption. "I'm not having fun, the game's popularity is in decline, ergo everyone else must not be having fun".

You also have zero proof that graph is accurate but we won't get into that.

Ultimately, that's not how it works.

What we know for a fact are some people are leaving due to not having fun, some people are leaving because the expansion is winding down (which is normal behavior shown in literally every MMO over the past two decades), and some people have been put into a financial position where playing a game is no longer a luxury they can afford. There have been mass layoffs, costs are going up, debt is higher than ever before, but sure the only reason people aren't subscribing is because they view the game exactly as you do and are quitting.

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Originally Posted by Morphiana

Do you... Not understand charts? The chart did not do any survey or show any data on why people have left the game.

What you're saying is correlational. You zero proof that your personal experience is what is causing a decline, you're making that assumption. "I'm not having fun, the game's popularity is in decline, ergo everyone else must not be having fun".

You also have zero proof that graph is accurate but we won't get into that.

Ultimately, that's not how it works.

What we know for a fact are some people are leaving due to not having fun, some people are leaving because the expansion is winding down (which is normal behavior shown in literally every MMO over the past two decades), and some people have been put into a financial position where playing a game is no longer a luxury they can afford. There have been mass layoffs, costs are going up, debt is higher than ever before, but sure the only reason people aren't subscribing is because they view the game exactly as you do and are quitting.

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Yeah alright lol

Have a good one, have fun finding more and more ridiculous excuses as to why there is a decline.

I missed the bus this morning, I'm sure people quit the game as support to me missing my bus.

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

Yeah alright lol

Have a good one, have fun finding more and more excuses as to why there is a decline.

I missed the bus this morning, I'm sure people quit the game as support to me missing my bus.

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For you:

https://www.jmp.com/en_us/statistics...tion.%E2%80%9D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tg6e2Y3IEUk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQfacqVvOEM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbODqslc4Tg

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

False data = valid data you disagree with because it doesn't fit what you believe in

Understood

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No, it means data you want to be true because it supports your doomposting, but which is wrong.

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Originally Posted by Larirawiel

https://steamcharts.com/app/306130#All
https://steamcharts.com/app/238960#All
https://steamcharts.com/app/212500#All
https://steamcharts.com/app/582660#All


Roughly comparable games. But they do not show that sharp decline like FF14. So the reason for this decline in FF14 is propably not covid-19. :)



Cheers

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No, those aren't roughly comparable games. They ARE MMOs, but none of those games had a player count inflation like FFXIV did, meaning they don't have those players to lose.

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Originally Posted by Renathras

No, those aren't roughly comparable games. They ARE MMOs, but none of those games had a player count inflation like FFXIV did, meaning they don't have those players to lose.

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Path of Exile isn't an MMO. It's an ARPG.

Petty me is enjoying ESO's player count being at it's lowest since 2019 after so many on their forums told me cutting content in half to focus on bugs was a great thing lol.

It's why I'm concerned about XIV. The patches are thinly spread apart. Not quite as bad as what ESO did, but overall content seems cut by 1/3rd given the delays, which is significant.

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Originally Posted by seolhyun

how do u know they are active? they were active in prev quarter but unconfirmed for the next bc they didnt gain any achievement. idk maybe this graph just sucks

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Have you read Lucky Bancho's blog that explains how he collects data and determines a player to be active?

He looks for any changes in their Lodestone profile since he last collected the data. That could mean a change in job level, change in gear, change in minions, change in mount, change in achievements (if public), etc.

Someone not playing the game wouldn't have any of those changes.

What I've pointed out a few times is we don't know the date he collected data for the achievement graph but we do know the date he collected it for his normal census he did during the second quarter (May 20th).

There was no new content released between April 1st and May 20th (last content release had March 6th, which only had a few achievements related to Eureka Orthos added *edit - missed the Lopporit tribal quests and the Manderville weapons that also had achievements). It would make sense for the graph to show a small number of existing players to earn new achievements as a result.

If he had collected data a second time between May 21st and June 30th, the information on the graph would be truly unexpected since 6.4 was released on May 23rd.

Do you really think that such a small number of players were all that completed the 6.4 MSQ considering a new raid was released at the same time? Completing the 6.4 MSQ automatically rewarded an achievement not to mention completing the raid on Normal and/or Savage.

It makes a lot more sense that he was using the data from May 20th.

The graph doesn't suck but it's also not a good source of information for someone trying to prove the game is dying since the results are limited to active players who make their achievements public (most don't). Certainly there has been a drop in active players but the green bar doesn't represent those who didn't play during the 2nd quarter.

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

Have you read Lucky Bancho's blog that explains how he collects data and determines a player to be active?

The graph doesn't suck but it's also not a good source of information for someone trying to prove the game is dying since the results are limited to active players who make their achievements public (most don't).

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I didn't even know you could hide achievements or how I'd do this even if I wanted to. I think most people dont' change their settings on their lodestone or even know about their lodestones in the grand scheme of the playerbase. If public achievements is the default setting, I'd wager the majority don't even touch the setting, and it's a minority who'd care enough to make them private. Because the typical player would either not know about it, or have no reason to believe they need their achievements private because who the hell is checking them? lol

If private achievements are the default setting, then I see your point.

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Originally Posted by ZephyrMenodora

I didn't even know you could hide achievements or how I'd do this even if I wanted to. I think most people dont' change their settings on their lodestone or even know about their lodestones in the grand scheme of the games. If public achievements is the default setting, I'd wager the majority don't even touch the setting, and it's a minority who'd care enough to make them private. Because the typical player would either not know about it, or have no reason to believe they need their achievements private because who the hell is checking them? lol

If private achievements are the default setting, then I see your point.

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You have to enable achievements on the lodestone. They are not shown by default.

You can get a gauge of what content people do by looking at their mounts and minions, but it is hardly a good option.

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Originally Posted by Ivtrix

You have to enable achievements on the lodestone. They are not shown by default.

You can get a gauge of what content people do by looking at their mounts and minions, but it is hardly a good option.

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Well if the default setting is that achievements are hidden, then that would severely limit the use of the data. Most people wouldn't bother with privacy settings for such a thing.

All of my settings seem to be public now that I found them though, and I don't recall ever looking at them.

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

The graph doesn't suck but it's also not a good source of information for someone trying to prove the game is dying since the results are limited to active players who make their achievements public (most don't). Certainly there has been a drop in active players but the green bar doesn't represent those who didn't play during the 2nd quarter.

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Once again, no one said the game is dying. Not a single person in this thread said that.

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Originally Posted by ZephyrMenodora

I didn't even know you could hide achievements or how I'd do this even if I wanted to. I think most people dont' change their settings on their lodestone or even know about their lodestones in the grand scheme of the playerbase. If public achievements is the default setting, I'd wager the majority don't even touch the setting, and it's a minority who'd care enough to make them private. Because the typical player would either not know about it, or have no reason to believe they need their achievements private because who the hell is checking them? lol

If private achievements are the default setting, then I see your point.

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Hiding anything in FFXIV is weirdly extremely frowned upon for some reason. People look at it like you got something to hide or be ashamed of if you hide anything about yourself.

Hide FFlogs? - You probably bought a clear
Hide your Achievements? - You probably cheat or lied about clearing something you did not really clear.
Hide your Adventure Plate? - People won't take you seriously for some reason.
Hide your main on the official forums? - You must be a troll.

The list goes on and on for anything that can be hidden. The only one that you can pretty much get away with is hiding your friendlist. lol

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Originally Posted by Ivtrix

You have to enable achievements on the lodestone. They are not shown by default.

You can get a gauge of what content people do by looking at their mounts and minions, but it is hardly a good option.

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Right and part of the reason people went and hid them was because there was a period where people would dig through them and use it as a method to be like “well you didn’t do this so you didn’t do everything!” Gets so tiresome seeing people use collecting achievements etc as a stick to beat people over the head with.

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Originally Posted by Blossoming

Right and part of the reason people went and hid them was because there was a period where people would dig through them and use it as a method to be like “well you didn’t do this so you didn’t do everything!” Gets so tiresome seeing people use collecting achievements etc as a stick to beat people over the head with.

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I think the number of situations, among the millions who have played XIV, where their achievements were being scrutinized enough for the average player to care is low. Probably happens more in drama-places like this, or where it might matter for raiding.

I did just check a number of newbies in my FC and I can't see any of their acheivements. So yes it seems the default setting, which then makes me wonder how useful the data here is. I must have changed my settings like 7 years ago and forgot, or something, for them to be visible then.

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Originally Posted by Blossoming

Right and part of the reason people went and hid them was because there was a period where people would dig through them and use it as a method to be like “well you didn’t do this so you didn’t do everything!” Gets so tiresome seeing people use collecting achievements etc as a stick to beat people over the head with.

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I'm sure there is some of that going on but it actually had more to do with gate keeping. Back when people in PF would dig through your achievements to see if you cleared the content before. This was back before PF provided a way to filter that directly. If a new player bonus appeared in a PF, someone would go out and scout achievements and the person who had them hidden would typically get kicked.