LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

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Originally Posted by Tahbitha

If the FF XIV player population is in decline... why have I experienced a login queue, of consistent length, every single time I've logged into the game in the past 18 months?

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https://media.tenor.com/NAqAj5Hth4QA...-dont-know.gif

To me, I don't know why we even talking about this because every game will have ups and downs when it comes to population, no matter what. To me, it shows that this game still has a lot of activity regardless of declining numbers (the shutdowns had a part in that and other things as well). At the end of the day, the game will be fine (if FFXI is still here after all of this time then FFXIV will be in the clear).

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Originally Posted by NekiUno

I dont know, maybe Information Disorder Syndrome or something like that.

https://media.tenor.com/NAqAj5Hth4QA...-dont-know.gif

To me, I dont know why we even talking about this because every game will have ups and downs when it comes to population, no matter what. To me, it shows that this game is still active regardless of decline besides as long we do not get the End of Service letter then we are good.

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Or perhaps you yourself are misinformed

The queue you see when you log in is not because the server is full, but because the servers log multiple people in at once after a small delay instead of doing it on an individual basis.

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

Or perhaps you yourself are misinformed

The queue you see when you log in is not because the server is full, but because the servers log multiple people in at once after a small delay instead of doing it on an individual basis.

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Strike one.....I was talking about something else :)

The server catches fire when as little as 50(?) players logs in around the same time that they have to put a stopgap.

What even… lmao

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Originally Posted by NekiUno

At the end of the day, the game will be fine (if FFXI is still here after all of this time then FFXIV will be in the clear).

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FFXIV came out less than ten years after FFXI did. The latter didn't even hit its peak until just before ARR. So we had a replacement and a fallback that allowed Square Enix to make FFXI a legacy, single-player title while focusing its efforts on its new MMO.

There is no such thing for FFXIV. They are not developing a replacement MMO. There is FFXIV or WoW. This is the "new MMO" for millions of people. It's a letdown that those people don't get to see the game at its peak anymore, and are learning after the fact that the peak was years ago.

Where is the FFXIV community going to go? Many of them have already checked out of this game. They don't log in anymore. When FFXIV finally dies, as you're eagerly looking forward to, where are the rest of us going? To Discord? To Fortnite and Fall Guys? How do you think that any of those are a suitable replacement?

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

Or perhaps you yourself are misinformed

The queue you see when you log in is not because the server is full, but because the servers log multiple people in at once after a small delay instead of doing it on an individual basis.

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Originally Posted by Rein_eon_Osborne

The server catches fire when as little as 50(?) players logs in around the same time that they have to put a stopgap.

What even… lmao

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I believe it's also partially a business tactic to trick people into thinking that the game is well-populated and thriving. Lots of people, including people in this thread, think if there's a login queue then the servers must be operating at max capacity, and if the servers are at max cap then the game must be doing well. SE is trying to create the illusion the game is flourishing, and as we can see from some comments in this thread, this illusion is working.

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Originally Posted by Swordsman

I believe it's also partially a business tactic to trick people into thinking that the game is well-populated and thriving. Lots of people, including people in this thread, think if there's a login queue then the servers must be operating at max capacity, and if the servers are at max cap then the game must be doing well. SE is trying to create the illusion the game is flourishing, and as we can see from some comments in this thread, this illusion is working.

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I've always said this, the wording in the "Server is full" message implies that the actual game servers are full, while the reality is... they are not. That's why you can log in at 4 AM and have limsa be completely empty, yet you had 40 people in queue. The intent is obvious, it gives this false idea that the game servers are overloaded and that the game is booming.

Oh no

/10 kittens

It doesn't help that we're supposed to do the same content again and again but with more ilvl cheese AND boring jobs. At least one of the three needs to change to keep my engagement.

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Originally Posted by caffe_macchiato

FFXIV came out less than ten years after FFXI did. The latter didn't even hit its peak until just before ARR. So we had a replacement and a fallback that allowed Square Enix to make FFXI a legacy, single-player title while focusing its efforts on its new MMO.

There is no such thing for FFXIV. They are not developing a replacement MMO. There is FFXIV or WoW. This is the "new MMO" for millions of people. It's a letdown that those people don't get to see the game at its peak anymore, and are learning after the fact that the peak was years ago.

Where is the FFXIV community going to go? Many of them have already checked out of this game. They don't log in anymore. When FFXIV finally dies, as you're eagerly looking forward to, where are the rest of us going? To Discord? To Fortnite and Fall Guys? How do you think that any of those are a suitable replacement?

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First of all, I will not see an End of Service for this game.....for a while. But for the future, we don't know this. Think about this, if Ragnarok Online, Ultima Online, and Meridian 59 (geez, I was playing this game at MWR in Norfolk, VA when it was in Military) are still out there and players still play it then FFXIV is going to be fine.

I have been playing Video Games for a very long time and believe me, I can understand that we want something to be good forever and continue to bring in new players but like everything else, nobody even MMORPG can not win against time. Right now, I think this is going to be my last month paying full-time and it is not because of the direction of the game but because it has run its course for me and it is time to move on and do something different (doing this for nine years is crazy but I will never change it). Macchi, do you know that they have a Riot MMO coming out soon and a few other things (if Apple Vision Pro works, they are talking about making a SAO type of game.....). MMOs is still going to be around and like this game, it is going to take time.

If I'm understanding the graph correctly, this decline into a new "low point" for Endwalker is actually about the same numbers we had at the launch of Shadowbringers -- which at the time would have been considered an all-time new record for the game by quite a margin. In other words, the numbers we once expected of the hype driven by a new expansion release are now the numbers we get during the "worst" of patch content lull. To me, this seems to indicate a trend of upward momentum, as we will get more new and returning players as Dawntrail draws closer, not to mention the Xbox version.

Time will tell if we can get back up to the extreme peak set at the start of Endwalker, but I would also argue that was a rather exceptional moment in the game's history. We had covid, we had a rather major "WoW exodus" with a lot of streamers covering the game who never bothered before, we had the climactic culmination of FFXIV's entire MSQ.

Of course, this does nothing to alleviate the feelings of those playing at endgame right now and feel they have nothing left to do. But until we see how things shape out in the future, I don't think we can say FFXIV is literally dying as a game simply because we don't have a Bozja-like FATE-grinding zone this expansion. Not everybody even likes that sort of thing.

People really don't realize how big an impact the wow exodus +covid had on the games population.



We normalized with growth.

i mean there's no endgame content rn beyond waiting for a pathetic few drips of story to come pissing down on us unless you're interested in savage content where you're not allowed even a minuscule amount of leeway or originality of thought without taking a billion dots, debuffs, vuln stacks and causing the entire raid to wipe.

what's the point in having HP if every little mistake causes your death. what's the point of playing if you can just make a flat list of each mechanic and how to resolve it. what's the point in having a healer if they can't save you or anyone else since a single mistake means y'all might as well start over anyway.

bozja and eureka - as much as people like to screamcry about them - were a good middle ground/introduction to savage-like content and there's now a rift between casual players and endgame content runners that's preventing new people from being introduced to it. this means there's more people leaving than people joining raid statics.

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Originally Posted by NekiUno

First of all, I will not see an End of Service for this game.....for a while. But for the future, we don't know this. Think about this, if Ragnarok Online, Ultima Online, and Meridian 59 (geez, I was playing this game at MWR in Norfolk, VA when it was in Military) are still out there and players still play it then FFXIV is going to be fine.

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The difference is in community. People make friends, a guild, and a community in a game. That game was doing well with people sticking around for a little bit. And then it suddenly craters during Endwalker. Suddenly, people are on their own. And there's no sequel, no replacement.

MMOs exist to build a community, and when people start escaping en masse like they are now, that is a problem. You might love the gameplay so much that you'd play solo all the time, but that's not what an MMO is for.

Those smaller MMOs like Ultima Online don't have very many people at all currently playing. For 99% of people who used to play, they've now moved to other things. You know, like other games. Except in the 00s, there were better options for everyone to migrate to. Now there's not.

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Originally Posted by Valkyrie_Lenneth

We normalized with growth.

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You killed off another game in order to feed your own. Millions of people vacated WoW to come here. Now you're killing off FFXIV with this complacency, so where do these people go now? Back to a 20-year old game? Doesn't that disprove everyone else who says that MMOs have a 10-year shelf life?

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Originally Posted by caffe_macchiato

The difference is in community. People make friends, a guild, and a community in a game. That game was doing well with people sticking around for a little bit. And then it suddenly craters during Endwalker. Suddenly, people are on their own. And there's no sequel, no replacement.

MMOs exist to build a community, and when people start escaping en masse like they are now, that is a problem. You might love the gameplay so much that you'd play solo all the time, but that's not what an MMO is for.

Those smaller MMOs like Ultima Online don't have very many people at all currently playing. For 99% of people who used to play, they've now moved to other things. You know, like other games. Except in the 00s, there were better options for everyone to migrate to. Now there's not.



You killed off another game in order to feed your own. Millions of people vacated WoW to come here. Now you're killing off FFXIV with this complacency, so where do these people go now? Back to a 20-year old game? Doesn't that disprove everyone else who says that MMOs have a 10-year shelf life?

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We didn't kill off wow, they had a dev issue.



Tons of people flocked to online entertainment during covid. And now that covid is over those numbers have normalized. Shadowbringers was an outlier due to external circumstances. Comparing endwalker to it is silly.




It's just statistics. It's like trying to look at traffic patterns in 2020-2021 and trying to say that's normal usage

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Originally Posted by Fyrebrand

If I'm understanding the graph correctly, this decline into a new "low point" for Endwalker is actually about the same numbers we had at the launch of Shadowbringers -- which at the time would have been considered an all-time new record for the game by quite a margin.

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i think u are reading it wrong. green bar = lost players. red bar = active. blue = new players

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Originally Posted by seolhyun

i think u are reading it wrong. green bar = lost players. red bar = active. blue = new players

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The graph is for achievements number of achievements gained by players in specific time periods, how many players make their accounts private? How many have most achievements? There is so much wrong with this data you can not draw accurate conclusions people in this thread can't even read it right.

I will again copy paste this statement by the person who made that graph from the same website.

Although the recent decline is worrisome, if you look at the overall number, you can see that the active character population is basically increasing, albeit in waves.

https://activeplayer.io/final-fantasy-xiv/

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Originally Posted by seolhyun

i think u are reading it wrong. green bar = lost players. red bar = active. blue = new players

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That's not what he is talking about. Q2 2023 has about the same numbers than Q2 2019 (which is around 200k).

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Originally Posted by seolhyun

i think u are reading it wrong. green bar = lost players. red bar = active. blue = new players

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the green bar isn't lost players. that's an assumption of some the people reading the graph.

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Originally Posted by Snorky

The graph is for achievements number of achievements by players, how many players make their accounts private? How many have most achievements. There is so much wrong with this data you can not draw accurate conclusions people in this thread can't even read it right.

I will again copy paste this statement by the person who made that graph from the same website.

Although the recent decline is worrisome, if you look at the overall number, you can see that the active character population is basically increasing, albeit in waves.

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it not about people that have most achievements its ppl that gained or didnt gain an achievement in a time period that have achievements public. its same as ppl linking steam charts when most ppl dont play steam.

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Originally Posted by seolhyun

it not about people that have most achievements its ppl that gained or didnt gain an achievement in a time period that have achievements public. its same as ppl linking steam charts when most ppl dont play steam.

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You are right I mis worded it, but the statement still stands this data is not perfect

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Originally Posted by Denji

i mean there's no endgame content rn beyond waiting for a pathetic few drips of story to come pissing down on us unless you're interested in savage content where you're not allowed even a minuscule amount of leeway or originality of thought without taking a billion dots, debuffs, vuln stacks and causing the entire raid to wipe.

what's the point in having HP if every little mistake causes your death. what's the point of playing if you can just make a flat list of each mechanic and how to resolve it. what's the point in having a healer if they can't save you or anyone else since a single mistake means y'all might as well start over anyway.

bozja and eureka - as much as people like to screamcry about them - were a good middle ground/introduction to savage-like content and there's now a rift between casual players and endgame content runners that's preventing new people from being introduced to it. this means there's more people leaving than people joining raid statics.

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Bozja was actually amazing in that it had content where casuals and high end players could play together, and even offered ways for casuals to slowly improve their game.
DRS is a really solid place to start learning raiding fundamentals, and the ammount of horizontal progression bozja offers is really nice.

Cute catgirls and Victorias secret bunnies can only help them so far.

People want to play a game in a game. I know that sounds crazy.

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Originally Posted by Valkyrie_Lenneth

People really don't realize how big an impact the wow exodus +covid had on the games population.



We normalized with growth.

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Except Endwalker didn't see growth. It's dropped all the way back to early Shadowbringer numbers, which pre-date Covid. And this is before what will be a near ten month long content lull. In layman's terms, Endwalker essentially spun its wheels and wasn't able to keep any of its massive surge of potential players. While yes, it's silly to assume those bloated numbers near the end of Shadowbringers were going to remain, it's equally silly to claim losing that same amount of players (be in WoW refugees or long time players losing interest) is just "normalizing".

That isn't to say the game is in some dire state like some are making it out to be. Just that it more or less stagnated.

Someone explain to me why these numbers (or graphs or whatever) are 'important'?

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Originally Posted by KitingGenbu

Someone explain to me why these numbers (or graphs or whatever) are 'important'?

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they aren't important, its the normal thing where someone thinks they have something useful then wrongfully uses it and spreads it as gospel for whatever they are trying to preach.

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Originally Posted by KitingGenbu

Someone explain to me why these numbers (or graphs or whatever) are 'important'?

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They, along with basically every other available statistic concerning this game, confirm that player retention has been been abnormally poor in EW.

This supports many of the common stated criticisms of this expansion; That replayability of the content offerings is poor and feels more sparse than previous expansions.

Counterpoint to everyone saying "Wait until Dawntrail"

The goal of every expansion is to end up with more subs at the end of it than you began with. That is how you grow. Right now, if the Bancho survey is any indication, subs are lower than when Shadowbringer released.

That should be concerning for any MMO company. Ending up lower than 2 expansions ago, with a solid decline after a current expansion. It is generally expected, but not at this plummeting rate.

Something needs to change at CBU3 and FFXIV. Repeating the same content schedule (and making it take longer between each patch to boot) for 4 expansions simply isn't good enough anymore

So sales are up from the last non-expansion year.

Account levels are about where they were in the run up to ShB at this time during that expansion (the last time there wasn't a global pandemic driving up numbers).

I get the fear that a routine decline could be indication of a long-term decline, but the doom and gloom is overstated, especially since a lot (not all, but many) of the people saying it are people that were saying doom and gloom months ago when the Lucky Bancho numbers were showing growth. In other words, people that say the game is dying whether or not the numbers support it. While you might eventually be right doing so, it's not good analysis.

What we know is that every year in between expansions, there is a decline in players. Every time. This has happened in every odd year of FFXIV's history, even (as DPZ2 pointed out) the year before EW when the game was "at its height". The blip was smaller than normal...but there was also a global pandemic, layoffs, remote work, lockdowns, and a WoW implosion. I'm not sure how anyone can expect those numbers to remain once those effects taper off. It would be like someone saying, in 1945 "The US military is in decline! Look how many troops are leaving the service and the massive decline in active duty troops!" Except...that's perfectly logical at the end of a major world event that involves massive militaries as said event comes to an end.

The problem here is that the data is too limited.

It only counts people who have achievements public, and a lot of players do not, meaning it's almost always going to be under-counting numbers at the best of times.

Even the depressed number seems a reversion to the pre-covid number. Does that mean we're in a permanent trend down, or we just had an artificial inflation that is now coming to an end, like in Civilization games when a "Golden Age" comes to a close and production settles down to pre-Golden Age norms? We legitimately don't know which it is yet.

The overall trend seems to mirror past expansions - even the pandemic one, though it was more minor than normal ones.

We don't have the DT numbers yet, meaning we're trying to predict a trend-line based on, essentially, one point. Something you may recall from algebra: You cannot plot a line with only one point.

And even if things are down, they may NOT be for the reasons that people think. That is, just because you think the game is lacking in one area, and that's a big deal to you, does not mean it is to the greater playerbase as a while. We as individuals, or even small groups, are not a representative sample.

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This COULD be the first data for a long term decline...but it also could not. We won't know until we get further data in DT.

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Originally Posted by KitingGenbu

Someone explain to me why these numbers (or graphs or whatever) are 'important'?

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They aren't. Never were, never will. Expect to see threads like this over and over again when it's support the narrative, or the source shunned when it against the narrative

We all know only SE holds the true statistics. If our source of metric is wrong, then there's no point in discussing it under false data.

If we happen to be right. then SE already knew about it. What and how they're going to act upon that data have been decided already.

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Originally Posted by Aword3213

They aren't. Never were, never will. Expect to see threads like this over and over again when it's support the narrative, or the source shunned when it against the narrative

We all know only SE holds the true statistics. If our source of metric is wrong, then there's no point in discussing it under false data.

If we happen to be right. then SE already knew about it. What and how they're going to act upon that data have been decided already.

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I really dislike this arrogance. "shut up and know your place, daddy SE knows better than you"

people like you are really annoying

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Originally Posted by ForteNightshade

Except Endwalker didn't see growth. It's dropped all the way back to early Shadowbringer numbers, which pre-date Covid. And this is before what will be a near ten month long content lull. In layman's terms, Endwalker essentially spun its wheels and wasn't able to keep any of its massive surge of potential players. While yes, it's silly to assume those bloated numbers near the end of Shadowbringers were going to remain, it's equally silly to claim losing that same amount of players (be in WoW refugees or long time players losing interest) is just "normalizing".

That isn't to say the game is in some dire state like some are making it out to be. Just that it more or less stagnated.

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Achievements are still above the q1 and q2 numbers during shadowbringers. It wasn't until covid where Shb numbers post expansion drop are higher (during the lull) than current lull numbers.



I'm comparing troughs here. Not peaks.

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Originally Posted by Ivtrix

I really dislike this arrogance. "shut up and know your place, daddy SE knows better than you"

people like you are really annoying

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One can remember when I posted steamcharts as a sample too for the loss of players, weirdly enough the exact same people attacking this thread attacked me.

It's almost like they can't accept that FFXIV is in decline and that no, the game is not dying, but a lot of things are not ok right now.

"Only SE has data" is basically them trying to silence people because they know we'll never have full data, we can only have samples such as luckybancho or steam charts, and they go full blast in attacking those, they use that defense to try and force this toxic positivity that the game is in a good state and growing (as seen by a few people in this thread saying just that)

The reality is... it's not growing, but maybe if you keep convincing yourself that it is you'll eventually believe it, but its a delusion.

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

Random ranting...

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Or perhaps it's almost like you can't accept that FFXIV is doing well, so people logically point out the flaws whenever the next person comes along and makes the same erroneous claims...

The reality is, it's very much growing. Even the data attempting to "prove" it's declining actually prove the opposite. But maybe if you keep convincing yourself that it's failing, you'll eventually believe it? That would be the delusion. I know it's hard to accept that someone made a game you personally don't like but which is wildly popular. Someday you'll get over it.

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Originally Posted by Striker44

Or perhaps it's almost like you can't accept that FFXIV is doing well, so people logically point out the flaws whenever the next person comes along and makes the same erroneous claims...

The reality is, it's very much growing. Even the data attempting to "prove" it's declining actually prove the opposite. But maybe if you keep convincing yourself that it's failing, you'll eventually believe it? That would be the delusion. I know it's hard to accept that someone made a game you personally don't like but which is wildly popular. Someday you'll get over it.

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Case in point.

Thank you for proving my point.

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Originally Posted by Ivtrix

I really dislike this arrogance. "shut up and know your place, daddy SE knows better than you"

people like you are really annoying

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I mean...your post here........

EDIT:

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

One can remember when I posted steamcharts as a sample too for the loss of players, weirdly enough the exact same people attacking this thread attacked me.

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To be fair, people like me presented detailed analysis for why those numbers weren't reliable and you attacked us and called us names instead, then held us to a wild standard that you weren't even holding yourself to.

The game seems to be growing apples-to-apples. You don't want that to be true for some reason, perhaps to justify your personal complaints and spur SE to act on them, but that is still the truth at the present time. As I told you before, the only way to know is wait for DT to hit and compare the numbers then, something you don't seem to want to do because it would interfere with doomposting and might prove you wrong. In fact, I fully suspect if they do prove you wrong, you won't admit to it and will continue holding the same view and looking for data to support it, but time will tell, I suppose.

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Originally Posted by Striker44

Or perhaps it's almost like you can't accept that FFXIV is doing well, so people logically point out the flaws whenever the next person comes along and makes the same erroneous claims...

The reality is, it's very much growing. Even the data attempting to "prove" it's declining actually prove the opposite. But maybe if you keep convincing yourself that it's failing, you'll eventually believe it? That would be the delusion. I know it's hard to accept that someone made a game you personally don't like but which is wildly popular. Someday you'll get over it.

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Agreed.

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

Case in point.

Thank you for proving my point.

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He didn't prove your point, he disproved your point.

It's also funny you basically say we can't really know, then state as a fact that the game is not growing, apparently not realizing those two positions are incompatible.

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Originally Posted by Larirawiel

True. But such a decline like in EW was never observed.


Cheers

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Yet it probably should have been expected considering the main story arc that has existed since 2.0 was concluded in 6.0 instead of being continued.

With respect to the achievement graph, we still need confirmation about what collection date(s) LB used for the 2nd QTR numbers. That would have a big effect on the number of players collecting new achievement completions because of when the patch dates landed.

What will people say next month when he posts the 3rd quarter numbers if the trend shifts back in the other direction and the bar is mostly red again?

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Originally Posted by ForteNightshade

It really is amazing how consistently Square Enix wil shoot themselves in the foot and then stare blankly, wondering how it all happened. Case in point, FFXVI didn't sell enough to offset their previous losses (Avengers and Forspoken). Almost like releasing it as a PS5 exclusive meant drastically limiting their sale potential, especially when a massive portion of FFXIV players who might be interested are on PS4 or PC. They're doing it again with Rebirth. So I'll expect to read another "SE is disappointed Rebirth didn't reach sales expectations" a few months later.

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Tin foil hat theory: Sony is still interested in purchasing SE but doesn't like the current price. They're giving SE bad advice about releasing PS exclusives so sales of new titles are lower because of the lack of additional platforms. That worries investors so the stock price falls. Lower stock price means lower price for Sony when they reappear to make the attempt to purchase SE as a counter Microsoft's recent acquisitions.

I know how much people like to mock with "small indie company" but when you're comparing them against the giants like Sony and Microsoft, it's a lot closer to the truth for SE than some think.

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Originally Posted by seolhyun

i think u are reading it wrong. green bar = lost players. red bar = active. blue = new players

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Not lost players. Active characters who have achievements posted publicly (ie visible to other players on Lodestone) and had achievement completions in previous quarters but did not have new achievement completions registered for the reported quarter.

LB doesn't list newly inactive characters in the data he shares except for in a column on his census spreadsheet plus a brief mention in the blog he posts. I'd have to run the column titles through Google translate to figure out which columns are for the newly inactive characters, new characters and returning characters (characters that didn't have changes on Lodestone during the previous census period but had been active prior to that).

Also, he doesn't collect data on characters that are level 60 and below because he has no way to determine if the accounts are paid subscriptions or free trial. Once Stormblood become part of the free trial some time in 6.5, I'm certain he'll increase the character level floor to 71.

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Originally Posted by Snorky

You are right I mis worded it, but the statement still stands this data is not perfect

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True but it's as close to reliable as we're likely to get unless SE decides to start publishing numbers.

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Originally Posted by Lieri

Cute catgirls and Victorias secret bunnies can only help them so far.

People want to play a game in a game. I know that sounds crazy.

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We've got game play in the game and there are players doing it.

Someone no longer being interested in what game play exists does not indicate a lack of game in the game. It indicates a lack of interest by that individual.

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Originally Posted by KitingGenbu

Someone explain to me why these numbers (or graphs or whatever) are 'important'?

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They're only important to people who decide to justify their opinion about a game based on how many people are playing it at a certain period in time.

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Originally Posted by Deceptus

Counterpoint to everyone saying "Wait until Dawntrail"

The goal of every expansion is to end up with more subs at the end of it than you began with. That is how you grow. Right now, if the Bancho survey is any indication, subs are lower than when Shadowbringer released.

That should be concerning for any MMO company. Ending up lower than 2 expansions ago, with a solid decline after a current expansion. It is generally expected, but not at this plummeting rate.

Something needs to change at CBU3 and FFXIV. Repeating the same content schedule (and making it take longer between each patch to boot) for 4 expansions simply isn't good enough anymore

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Just as no king lives forever, no game increases the size of its active player base forever.

That is something everyone needs to come to terms with. Nothing is forever in the gaming industry.

MMO developers don't get concerned until they're not making a profit. I doubt FFXIV is close enough to that point yet to cause SE any alarm.

The chaos in the player numbers caused by COVID lockdowns and the WoW exodus means it's difficult to accurately judge what is happening in the player base.

Nothing is going to change with the game because a small vocal number of players insists that it is needed. It will change once the game gets close to the point it is no longer profitable. Will that be too late to react? Hard to say but I bet a lot of developers are watching what happens with Dragonflight closely. If nothing else, YoshiP has been pretty good about learning from WoW examples.

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Originally Posted by Ivtrix

I really dislike this arrogance. "shut up and know your place, daddy SE knows better than you"

people like you are really annoying

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So are people who insist a game is dying just because it had a less successful second half of an expansion for a change.

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Originally Posted by Striker44

Or perhaps it's almost like you can't accept that FFXIV is doing well, so people logically point out the flaws whenever the next person comes along and makes the same erroneous claims...

The reality is, it's very much growing. Even the data attempting to "prove" it's declining actually prove the opposite. But maybe if you keep convincing yourself that it's failing, you'll eventually believe it? That would be the delusion. I know it's hard to accept that someone made a game you personally don't like but which is wildly popular. Someday you'll get over it.

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The reality is we can't be certain of anything since SE doesn't provide concrete numbers for anyone to work with.

It also shouldn't matter whether the game is growing or declining. All that should matter is whether you personally are having fun.

I'm having fun. I intend to keep playing the game. If I stop having fun, I'll stop playing it and either start playing the other games I'm currently into more often or go looking for a new game to enjoy.

If someone is no longer having fun in FFXIV, it's up to them to figure out why they're still here instead of playing something else.

Doomcrying never leads to a game being changed. A lack of paying players does.

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So are people who insist a game is dying just because it had a less successful second half of an expansion for a change.

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Literally no one said the game is dying.

Decline =/ game dying

I dare you to find in this thread a single person who said the game is dead or dying, I'll wait.

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Originally Posted by Ivtrix

I really dislike this arrogance. "shut up and know your place, daddy SE knows better than you"

people like you are really annoying

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His point is valid regardless if you agree or not. I do agree with your sentiment though and think it applies perfectly to you.