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You don't have 8 chests every primal run because you can't pass weapons to each other. You also have a chance to receive a token now, which you actually can pass to each other. And prior to the introduction of tokens, it took me about 250-265 runs to get every Ifrit weapon. DL is far more punishing.
Would it be possible that SE put in an algorithm that increases the drop rate on Darklight Gear for Deathless Speed Runs? I am starting to believe that is the case. In which case, no death speed runs actually does require a bit of skill and party member coordination as much as speed runs. I am inclined to think this is less about luck and more about known unknowns...
Took me about one hundred runs to get full ifrit weapons and only one was bought with tokens. I think they might have increased the odds a little after that patch. Now when you say "250" runs I am inclined to ask whether those were all wins or losses included. Because if I include wipes that effectively double by attempts.
I'd say this is about right according to my experience. I've seen two DL pieces drop in about 30 speed runs. On the other hand I got ifrit weapon on first kill then another every 10kills after that on average +1 totem. As for moogle i think i got my first after 3 kills...
Are you talking about speed runs, speed runs with no deaths, or just normal runs?
This wouldn't surprise me the least.
The vast majority of our runs are 5-chest speedruns without deaths. There is no hidden reward factor for performance.
When I spoke of Ifrit runs, I was referring to wins.
How can you be so sure there is no hidden reward factor for performance if it's *hidden*? In FFXI there were obvious lvl brackets above which a crafter had to be in order to increase the HQ% of any given recipe. Tier 0 = 0-10 lvls above synth, Tier 1 = 11-30 above synth, T2= 31-50 above synth, and T3 = 51+ lvls above recipe lvl. T0 = 1/100 HQ chance, T1 = 1/10, T2 = 1/4, T3 = 1/2 HQ rate.
Somehow you put it beyond SE's imagination that there just *may be* hidden factors related to performance affecting the outcome of the drops. I disagree. Speed runs are one of these hidden factors related to performance leading to five chests, why would it be so hard to implement others?
I don't care about S-E's imagination or FFXI's crafting system. What I care about is observable evidence. We have a running joke in our shell about how we get rewarded for the rare wipe or near-wipe situation with DL drops, because DL ignores your performance. We've wiped to Mistress, finished anyway, and gotten a DL piece after 20 perfect runs over two days without any drops at all. We've done 15 perfect runs in a day and gotten three pairs of DL gloves. It's random, and it's a very low droprate overall.
I'm sure other LSs can corroborate this observation.
If all you care about is observable evidence then you should start taking note of every run you do, the time you finish at and the number of deaths as well as the rewards. That's the only way you will yield a % drop rate and the only way you can prove it as being random.
Unfortuneately there is no such thing as random in game programming. In FFXI crafting we had the Tiers to go by, but we also had the Law of the Averages which dictates that if you have a 10% drop/HQ rate, you could fail 90 times in a row, then pop 10HQ/drop in a row and you average out 10%. You could just as well go 20 NQ, followed by 2 HQ, ad infinum.
At the end of a day there is a % drop rate, and the only thing that applies is the Law of the Averages according to you. The only pertinent question at hand is the average drop rate. And the only way to get a definite average drop rate is by taking notes of your runs.
Otherwise your speculative 2-3% is as unfounded as my hidden reward factor based on performance.
This is a misconception I've heard floating around the gaming community for years. The fact that "there's no such thing as true randomness on computers" doesn't mean that actions you take in-game are going to have an impact on the results of your pseudo-randomly generated numbers. The human brain desperately wants to see a pattern, whether it's your performance or how many lalafells you have in the party when you get a drop. In all likelihood the PRNG cares much more about how many milliseconds it's been since midnight GMT on January 1, 1970 than any factor that's been proposed on the forums.
The time attack condition does not secretly change anything, its effect is obvious (it spawns a chest). It does not follow that "because there are conditions that make obvious changes, there are probably conditions that make tiny secret changes." The two are dissimilar.
What exactly is the misconception? The fact that there is no randomness in computers? Or the fact that actions in game affect the outcome? Neither. All i said was that IT IS POSSIBLE! YOU CANNOT DISPROVE THE FACT THAT A POSSIBILITY EXISTS. As desperate as you wish to believe otherwise. I am not saying I am right, you are wrong. I am saying we are both right and there is only one way to prove either wrong: scientifically using empiracle evidence based on observable facts.
The Speed Run condition spawns an extra chest. What don't you understand? Your performance changes the outcome of the loot. You cannot deny this fact. And somehow you think that one performance measure (time completion) is dissimilar to another (deaths) but in aactuality they are not. They are both similar in that they are based on player performance and skill. I don't understand why you valiantly deny the POSSIBILITY (NOT PROBABILITY) that they can affect the DL drop rate.
Yeah, man. You've popped 2500 chests from speed runs. Where's your excell spreadsheet? Pics or it didn't happen. U MADD BRO? If you all had half the heart of my former FFXI crafter colleagues you would have been taking note of every run in a spreadsheet. I poured through over ten thousand synthesis results in a spreadsheet in XI in search of a fabled factor that could increase HQ rate. And you're telling me you've "popped 2500 chests" ....that is vague enough on it's own. Do you mean 2500 speed runs, or 500 5 chest speed runs??? Be a little more specific. We have language for a reason. Sheesh!
i used pretty explicit language, guy. not my fault your reading comprehension is taking a hit for whatever reason.
but just to clear things up- if we'd done 2500 runs, even if averaging 2 runs an hour, that's 1250 hours of work. or 52 days. of non-stop av/cc. without any breaks of any kind. and it's been just under 52 days since patch. simple math. and so i guess simple logic would suggest my LS and i are cyborgs.
anyway, since anecdotal evidence seems to be your favorite- why don't you show us some of your detailed spreadsheets supporting your hypothesis. until then, raw numbers corroborated by many other LSs (as well as pretty much the entire JP community) win the day.
in the meantime, maybe try facing SW on firesday on a full moon wearing all red gear for dalamud and tell me if that increases your drops. chances are you'll get lucky and score a darklight piece with your whopping sample size of 5 and try to convince us this is how to get drops 100% of the time.
so have fun with that, i guess.
I'm not in BG, but I've stored searchable timestamped game logs of all of my raiding this patch. I have exact numbers on number of runs, number of DL drops, number of times each chest was opened (since each chest has unique loot you can search for and count). My exact dungeon clear total is 168 AVs and 110 CCs. With all that precision, I still get the same results as BG. I even wrote a program that checked the timestamps of our Darklight drops against the moon phase.
It sounds like you just get your kicks by pretending there's some secret way to control your luck. Maybe it's just your coping mechanism to deal with the miserable grind we're all facing.
The bottom line is that you're the one making the claim: "maybe performance influences drop rates". The burden of proof is on you to prove it, not on us to disprove it. Where are your Darklight spreadsheets?
Um.... well, The TWO darklight pieces I've seen drop were on speed runs with no deaths so yeah it's 100% true.
Also you forgot to wear your elemental staff (fire in this case)
You should publicly post your ever evolving spreadsheet data for your fellow community members to oggle.
Yes, I do get kicks by pretending there's some super secret way to control luck. You are indeed correct. I find it most amusing. This game would be so much more bland without this:
Besides I've already proven the fact that performance affects drops rates: you get more darklight by doing speed runs than not. The theory that I perpetuate as a joke more than anything is that maybe no deaths increases the drop rate because I have noticed an increase in drops when we don't die. It's just a theory, and you can deny it if you want but you can not disprove the possibility.
Have fun.
In this thread... we show off what our game addiction can reward us with.
In theory this is right, in practice its wrong.
Game programming loves the RND function which takes the servers time stamp to generate a number between .001 and .999 which is then divided or multiplied for various functions. Since this is taken off of the time stamps millisecond or nanosecond computation it might as well be random since its impossible to produce or reproduce results by attempting to abuse the formula. Since the number its being generated off is so fast, and not reproduce able it gives the essence of a random number, which for all intents and purposes is a random number.
You can say your chance to hit is 77%, but how does the game decide if it lands on the 77 or 23% part? Through the use of RND combined in a formula.
Anyways I just checked our spreadsheet (we document all runs drops including greens): Our Darklight drop rate is 3.1%, and yes, most runs are 0 deaths and <20 minutes. If performance had anything to do with it I bet we'd have a higher drop rate than that.
Oh...so that's why my Standard Synths fail 3 times in a row after using Makers Muse...
Jokes aside, you are correct in your explanation of the RNG. But the specifics of the formulas are different depending on the activity (crafting vs mob drops) and up until now the only thing i have said is that *maybe* darklight drops *could* be affected by an additional performance factor including but not limited to time.
It i's a theory, simply put, that acknowledges that the drop rate could be affected by additional performance factors. And it is a valid one at that, as hard as it may seem to prove.
Honestly, it's a running joke in my ls, and all I want to see are some numbers from the players that spend way more time than I can farming this gear. I have seen various percentages from various players such as yourself ranging from 10% to 1.57%.
That being said, I have yet to see some spreadsheet data myself. Nor could I verify the truth of such contents other than by repeating the experiment myself. This is the scientific process that us old time FFXI crafters have applied over years time so as to increase our HQ % rate sometimes fruitful and other times mystical...
Thanks.
With smaller data sets... the numbers will be more erratic...
You could go in 10 times and get 1 darklight piece every run and assume the number is 20%
But on a long enough timeline... with enough data points... the actual drop rate would be more consistent across all linkshells.....
Like if everyone tested it over 5,000 runs... I am sure the numbers would be a lot closer to each other
With that being said... in the absence of proof that there are any other factors.. and no one willing to test if there are... We must assume there are not
Perfect runs don't increase your drop rate directly...
But they do increase your speed times, which means more runs in a given amount of time....
Shaving 3 minutes off each run could allow for an extra run at the end of the nite before people have to go...
It's like Pixie hate, the direction you face, the moon phase
People love to believe in myths
Of course, this was the point of my earlier reference to what the XI crafters called "the law of the averages". Only over a long enough period of time and trials will the truth reveal itself. We might as well assume that everyone here who hasn't done over 5000 runs has a set of data skewed over or under the actual % drop rate which would in effect make any discussion or speculation about it useless.
On the other hand, I like how in a round about way you prove that avoiding deaths could in the long run increase your drops over time and thus drop rate over time...
As for mythology, one must admit that a certain amount o f truth is hidden at the root of all myths. For example: the greek and roman pantheistic deities who were represented by the elements were an acknowledgement of veritable natural phenomenon such as lightning and earthquakes which these ancient civilizations had not the capacity to explain scientifically.
I don't think any of us really care. We all know the drop rates are abysmal. I seriously doubt "performance" means jack shit. Maybe when things settle down people will care more about detailed spreadsheets and the like, but with the game changing every other month, it's pretty pointless right now.
Of course I'll try hopping on one foot facing west on a full moon while doing the dungeon in under 16 minutes to test this theory of increasing drop rates.
We finish our normal runs in 17-19 minutes so with 40+ minutes on the timer every single time, pretty much always with 0 deaths (people make mistakes sometimes :p it happens) and we have averaged a 2.5-2.6% drop rate.
Others are claiming a 5%-10% drop rate.
Are they clearing it faster than us? because if not your theory already doesn't hold water.
If anything it seems like the slower you clear and the more mistakes you make the more DL you get because the only times we have ever gotten double DL were on runs where we wiped once, pretty sure our first double DL was actually on a run where we wiped on mistress and didn't even get the speed run chest.
The most likely explanation - people exaggerate both ways. People looking for sympathy will exaggerate so their drop% is lower. People looking to brag/boast exaggerate so their drop% is higher.
Peng, out of curiosity, the drop % you've listed. Is that counting all final chests? From what we've seen, and maybe its just terrible luck, we've never seen darklight come from the far left chest in either raid. Counting that chest may skew things if in fact it doesnt drop darklight.
Counting all 5 chests, our LS is at 2.11% drop rate (0.99% in Cutters, 3.85% in AV). So our overall drop rate seems fairly close to yours
I must admit right off the bad if you clear in under 40 mins you're doing a damn good job and I speak from experience.
As for my theory it was jokingly directed at deaths as being a factor in the same sense that speed runs are. That being said it is fact that if you do the run in under 25 minutes you get the speed run and spawn extra chests. It is ALSO a fact that some of these and other chests in the dungeon will only appear after killing a specific number or set of mobs in each room.
Both of these are performance factors that must be executed in order to make appear the extra chests that supposedly drop this mythical Darklight gear. My theory is more of an acknowledgement that there may be other hidden performance factors that we are not yet aware of that may or may not trigger an increase in the drop rate of a specific darklight piece.
It could be that a non requisite monster near by a group of requisite monsters (toad next to lilies) is a secondary trigger that allows for the drop of a specific piece from a specific chest. In other words what if there is a set of mobs and timing that are required to spawn the additional chest and a whole other set to force darklight out of these chests?
That's about as far fetched as it gets, but entirely possible.
Which brings me to my next point: has it been established which pieces drop from which chests? I would be surprised to see any spreadsheet that has logged the exact time, number of deaths, items, and items from which chest for each run...
For all we know that chest doesn't even drop a darklight piece...
Ugh, 11 pages and only 4 images of full sets....
That is counting all final chests yes.
And pretty sure we have had every chest drop an item in AV atleast, i think the only DL we have never gotten is Darklight Gauntlets but thats mainly because we rarely do CC anymore.
Its kinda hard to tell with how fast the chests are opened at times.