Increase the Penalty For Those Who Leave After Getting Loot

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09-04-2014, 04:32 AM
Loody

Quote:

Originally Posted by ispano

I think his point is more that, if you don't care what other people think, and are still very vocal about your opinions, people are inclined to take the same stance. Not caring what you think. You basically invite them to it.

Exactly. Thank you.
09-04-2014, 04:36 AM
Niamh_Rillemaugh

Quote:

Originally Posted by CYoung187

If 8 people are rolling then the chance of winning is 12.5%, 5 people rolling is 20% chance of winning.

Thanks for playing, but I decided to do the math myself, since it looks like nobody else cares.

If everybody drew lots based on how many people could roll, the chances would definitely be 20% chance to win between 5 people and 12.5% chance to win between 8 characters. However, since everybody's rolling out of 100, the chances are not so simple.

Please keep in mind that I'm not dealing with ties, since I'm not sure how those are handled in the game (I don't think I've ever seen one either and it would be pretty rare anyway). I've been crossreferencing statistics sites that deal with dice rolls and chance, but I ultimately had to do the work myself, since the loot system is pretty unique (read as: nobody actually uses it in the real world).

Disclaimer: I don't do statistics and welcome any critique/corrections.

Hello and welcome to a crazy thing I decided to do using spreadsheets and too much time at work. Essentially, the question that arose earlier in this thread is whether or not your chances of lotting on the the Oil of Time, should it drop, is significantly affected by other people dropping out earlier in the raid. This is assuming that the only reason people would drop is if they already rolled successfully on another piece of loot, since it wouldn't affect your chances if somebody drops without getting their loot

What we do know about the loot system is that for need tier and greed tier, is that the winner is determined by the person who rolls highest in the group with a roll out of one hundred. I do not know whether a person can roll 100 (I've never seen it), but I do know people can roll as low as 1. A pass or inability to roll in the tier counts as a roll of 0. Since everybody can roll need on an Oil of Time, things are simplified somewhat: we only need worry about need tier chances.

Since we are essentially finding the chances of winning a die roll on a die with an extreme number of sides, there is no easy formula (that I know of) that we can just use and plug in values for an answer. So we'll do it the long way. We'll find out every possible way to win the roll.

Say we roll a 1. We know we won't be winning the OoT because everybody else will roll higher than us. So we can discount that roll.

Code:

Us Them 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

In the event we roll a 2, there's only one possible way we could win the roll: If everybody else rolls a 2 (I know I assumed no ties, but bear with me).

Code:

Us Them 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

When we roll a 3, things start to get more interesting: now there are 128 different ways we can win with 8 rolls, and 32 different ways we can win with 5.

Code:

Us Them 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 ... 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Things are beginning to take a pattern. For every roll, there are a number of winning combinations equal to (r -1)^n-1, where r is the roll value and n is the number of rolls. If we sum this up among all rolls, We can find out the number of winning combinations for the die roll.

Essentially:

Code:

100 ∑ (r -1)^n r=2

This comes out to about 1.107*10^15 for 8 people rolling and 1.854*10^9 for 5 people rolling.

In order to find out the percent chance of a winning combination, we need to find out the number of total combination possible. Since we're rolling a 100 sided die 8 times for 8 people and 5 times for 5 people, the total number of combinations for scenario is 100^n.

So our formula for calculating the chance of winning an Oil of Time can be calculated as follows:

Code:

100 100^n / ∑ (r -1)^n r=2

tl;dr

The chances of winning a loot where everybody needs is as follows

8 people: 11.07%
5 people: 18.54%

You're squabbling over 7% chance. Go do hunts if you want an oil that badly.

(I did this because I was bored at work, hope this entertains somebody out there.)
09-04-2014, 04:49 AM
Buff_Archer

Now I've heard it all, someone who leaves to give a new player a chance to enter and roll against the remaining party members who were there the whole time is altruistic? If I'm in a party as Bard and there's just 1 other Bard in the party, and over the course of ST they get what they want... and three DPS's drop because they did or didn't get what they wanted and by the final boss 3 Bards take their place, the people who dropped would have reduced my odds on getting a particular piece of Bard gear from 100% to 25%. What it comes down to is these people just don't give a damn about anyone else they're in the party with and if leaving early gives them a chance to do more Hunts or crafting or whatever, and that results in other party members who were there from the start running the entire instance and getting nothing from it because they lost a roll to their replacement, what do they care?

Letting new non-loot locked people in to roll against me midway through ST doesn't make someone courteous... the terms I'd use to describe such people would get me banned from this forum.
09-04-2014, 04:52 AM
NorthernLadMSP

The main point I think some people are missing is this . . . Instances/raids/dungeons were meant to be completed. SE intended for people to queue for an instance and finish it, getting some kind of reward in the process. They did not intend for people to queue, get a reward for doing 1/4 of the instance and then ditch.

There is a reason why there's a penalty for leaving. Because it's not the intention of using Duty Finder. Yet, there's always people who go against the intended method and make up their own rules and expect everyone else to just get over it. Then those said people, come to threads like this and tell others that if someone asks/expects for you to finish the instance you queued for, that somehow we are the selfish ones in the situation.

This is very much the same reason they changed the Myth/dungeon set up. Because too many people were abusing the intended method of queueing for Brayflox hard mode (for example) to get their 50 Myth after the first two bosses and then ditching.
09-04-2014, 04:59 AM
Alistaire

Quote:

Originally Posted by Niamh_Rillemaugh

I would really like to see somebody actually figure out how players dropping affects your chances of rolling on an oil or UAT. I've seen a few threads like this, but as far as I've seen, nobody's come out and said "Yes, this is terrible behavior because it drastically reduces your chances," or "Actually, it hardly even matters since you're all rolling out of 100 anyway." That said, I'm terrible with statistics, so I have no real idea what the impact is.

Why not just a thread about the average amount of time to get an oil GUARANTEED from doing hunts vs the average time needed to win the lot on an oil from ST, 1/5 or 1/8. Mind blown @ doing ST specifically to get oils.
09-04-2014, 05:11 AM
Niamh_Rillemaugh

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alistaire

Why not just a thread about the average amount of time to get an oil GUARANTEED from doing hunts vs the average time needed to win the lot on an oil from ST, 1/5 or 1/8. Mind blown @ doing ST specifically to get oils.

I don't roll on oils, I think it's a waste of a perfectly good way to gear alt classes. But I am curious. Besides, there are enough threads on how easy it is to get Sands and Oils through hunts as it is.
09-04-2014, 05:13 AM
Tridus1x

Until you pay my sub, I can loot and leave as much as I want.

I don't see the problem with people getting what they want and moving on. Other players forcing players to do something they don't want to be a part of....well that seems rather selfish. :D
09-04-2014, 05:16 AM
Raxion

Calm down. They're not jerks. They're not going out of their way to do anything malicious. Being able to only win one piece of gear per week, they simply just bow out when they get said weekly piece. Why do you think they should stick around for another 30+ minutes just so you have a better chance at winning the oil?

If SE wanted people to stick around until the end of ST, they'd increase the Soldiery reward to 75, instead of 15. That way, even if you won a piece of gear, it'd still be worth sticking it out until the end to get that nice chunk of Soldiery.
09-04-2014, 05:20 AM
maxthunder1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Niamh_Rillemaugh

I don't roll on oils, I think it's a waste of a perfectly good way to gear alt classes. But I am curious. Besides, there are enough threads on how easy it is to get Sands and Oils through hunts as it is.

You can get myth more easily than from the tower so whats the difference, other than in the tower you gotta wait till the next week to get another piece, and with myth you can do it in a day or 2 and have all the alts at ilvl 90.
09-04-2014, 05:21 AM
NorthernLadMSP

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raxion

If SE wanted people to stick around until the end of ST, they'd increase the Soldiery reward to 75, instead of 15. That way, even if you won a piece of gear, it'd still be worth sticking it out until the end to get that nice chunk of Soldiery.

You're so right. It was totally SE's intention for people to get their loot after Scylla and leave. :rolleyes:
09-04-2014, 05:24 AM
maxthunder1

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorthernLadMSP

You're so right. It was totally SE's intention for people to get their loot after Scylla and leave. :rolleyes:

Regardless of intention it is the players right to choose to stay or not and thats why we have the JOIN IN PROGRESS box among other reasons. Just because you dont like something dosent mean it should change just because you believe it should.

I could care less if a player stays or leaves because in the end it is all RNG and secondly no one should have a 100% chance at getting what they want because in the end if players get their drop they more than likely wont be back till reset.
09-04-2014, 05:25 AM
Raxion

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorthernLadMSP

You're so right. It was totally SE's intention for people to get their loot after Scylla and leave. :rolleyes:

Sarcasm aside, what's stopping them? From a logical standpoint, it's going to take longer than 30 minutes to finish the dungeon after Scylla, and they have nothing left to gain. What's keeping them there? 15 Soldiery? "Psh, no thanks, I'll just leave and tab out to YouTube for half an hour."
09-04-2014, 05:27 AM
LadyVal

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raxion

Sarcasm aside, what's stopping them? From a logical standpoint, it's going to take longer than 30 minutes to finish the dungeon after Scylla, and they have nothing left to gain. What's keeping them there? 15 Soldiery? "Psh, no thanks, I'll just leave and tab out to YouTube for half an hour."

That kind of mindset just sounds like poor sportsmanship to me. "Well I scored 10 points for my team so I'm done, call in a replacement."
09-04-2014, 05:29 AM
whiskeybravo

So unfair that I gotta wait 30 mins after no drop from Scylla, but you get a replacement in less than 5 seconds. Please fix it!
09-04-2014, 05:35 AM
NorthernLadMSP

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raxion

Sarcasm aside, what's stopping them? From a logical standpoint, it's going to take longer than 30 minutes to finish the dungeon after Scylla, and they have nothing left to gain. What's keeping them there? 15 Soldiery? "Psh, no thanks, I'll just leave and tab out to YouTube for half an hour."

Obviously nothing is stopping them, which is why people do it.

So, please tell me. If you wanted a specific glamour piece from the first boss of Hullbreaker Isle, would you get your item from said first boss, and drop immediately after? If so, then that's selfish to the other three people you were partied with, and the reason SE has put a penalty in place to people who do that.
09-04-2014, 05:36 AM
Raxion

Quote:

Originally Posted by LadyVal

That kind of mindset just sounds like poor sportsmanship to me. "Well I scored 10 points for my team so I'm done, call in a replacement."

Your analogy isn't even close to the related topic. There's no "sportsmanship" involved in running ST. We're not playing Football. We're running dungeon in which we have one opportunity per week to obtain a piece of gear.

I'm sorry you can't get your weekly oil by process of elimination. Expecting other players to follow your honor code makes you a bit naive, I'd say. Trying to have SE force it upon them is just idiotic. Perhaps you should try hunts for your oils and sands. The time investment is much smaller, and you don't have to blame anyone for ruining your chances of getting them.
09-04-2014, 05:38 AM
Raxion

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorthernLadMSP

Obviously nothing is stopping them, which is why people do it.

So, please tell me. If you wanted a specific glamour piece from the first boss of Hullbreaker Isle, would you get your item from said first boss, and drop immediately after? If so, then that's selfish to the other three people you were partied with, and the reason SE has put a penalty in place to people who do that.

We're not talking about a 4-man dungeon that can be completed in 20 minutes. We're talking about ST that takes 45 minutes to an hour depending on how good/bad your group is.
09-04-2014, 05:41 AM
NorthernLadMSP

Actually his/her analogy is completely related. This is a multi-player video game in which completing something is based on everyone's contribution, not ditching out when you feel like it. Just like football.
09-04-2014, 05:42 AM
NorthernLadMSP

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raxion

We're not talking about a 4-man dungeon that can be completed in 20 minutes. We're talking about ST that takes 45 minutes to an hour depending on how good/bad your group is.

Oooh, I gotcha. So, in a four man dungeon that's a no-no. But, in Syrcus Tower it's totally acceptable. Got it. No double standards there.
09-04-2014, 05:44 AM
LadyVal

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raxion

Your analogy isn't even close to the related topic. There's no "sportsmanship" involved in running ST. We're not playing Football. We're running dungeon in which we have one opportunity per week to obtain a piece of gear.

I'm sorry you can't get your weekly oil by process of elimination. Expecting other players to follow your honor code makes you a bit naive, I'd say. Trying to have SE force it upon them is just idiotic. Perhaps you should try hunts for your oils and sands. The time investment is much smaller, and you don't have to blame anyone for ruining your chances of getting them.

Wooah woah calm down, no need to make this personal. So defensive.

I personally haven't had any issue with people leaving mid-run, I mean it happens but they get replaced quickly and quite frankly I don't care if they leave or not, the effect it has on drops is so minimal to me it's not worth the emotion of getting upset about it. I don't blame anyone for anything.

All that aside quitting once you get what you want still makes you a poor sport, it just doesn't rile me up and I could care less about it. Apparently implying you are a poor sport in an instance where you are working with 23 others to accomplish a goal much like you would in any sport where you play on a team riles you up though. ;)
09-04-2014, 05:45 AM
monochromicorn

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorthernLadMSP

Obviously nothing is stopping them, which is why people do it.

So, please tell me. If you wanted a specific glamour piece from the first boss of Hullbreaker Isle, would you get your item from said first boss, and drop immediately after? If so, then that's selfish to the other three people you were partied with, and the reason SE has put a penalty in place to people who do that.

the difference between st and hullbreaker is that st quite literally has players of all classes and roles just waiting to get in, hullbreaker is a 4-man that might not have as many queueing for it and has less chances for people to come in because they are already past the boss that you want loot from. in last nights run of st, a healer and dps dropped from my alliance for an s rank, they were replace within seconds. i highly doubt that you get that kind of time on hullbreaker, or most any other content.
09-04-2014, 05:45 AM
SevenHeavens

I loot and run since ST day 1

/flexes
09-04-2014, 05:49 AM
Riepah

I agree with the suggestion that has been made, to only give won items out if the dungeon was either finished or vote abandoned. I'd personally add vote kick to that list, but, sadly, the people who would do things like leaving after getting their drop, would all too happily just afk to get themselves vote kicked to save a few minutes, so let's keep it at that. If getting kicked could cost them their loot, at least they'll behave.
09-04-2014, 05:50 AM
Raxion

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorthernLadMSP

Oooh, I gotcha. So, in a four man dungeon that's a no-no. But, in Syrcus Tower it's totally acceptable. Got it. No double standards there.

I haven't said anything is right or wrong. You're just assuming I am because I'm disagreeing with you. Fact is, It doesn't matter what I, or you, think is right or wrong. People are going to do what they're going to do.

There is no honor code. Everyone is paying $15 a month to log in. If they deem their playtime too valuable to stay in ST after getting their loot, then they can leave. Sure, it sucks for the people trying for oil, but asking SE to severly punish them for it is just silly.

ST isn't the only way to get oil, either. You have T7, Hunts, and ST for that. If you're getting undesired results via one method, why not try another instead of blaming your losses of the inconsiderate nature of MMO players in an anonymous setting? They owe you nothing.
09-04-2014, 05:56 AM
NorthernLadMSP

Oh, I'm not disputing that fact at all. People will always do whatever they want to do, whether it is noble or selfish. I'm just giving you my opinion on the whole matter. Personally, I haven't been in many ST's where people do this. But, trying to make this a noble deed is too amusing to me to not respond.
09-04-2014, 05:57 AM
whiskeybravo

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riepah

I agree with the suggestion that has been made, to only give won items out if the dungeon was either finished or vote abandoned. I'd personally add vote kick to that list, but, sadly, the people who would do things like leaving after getting their drop, would all too happily just afk to get themselves vote kicked to save a few minutes, so let's keep it at that. If getting kicked could cost them their loot, at least they'll behave.

So people who join in progress because the loot they are looking for is 3 or 4 bosses in should not be allowed to join either, since they didn't contribute to the rest of the dungeon being accomplished?
09-04-2014, 05:58 AM
Raxion

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorthernLadMSP

Oh, I'm not disputing that fact at all. People will always do whatever they want to do, whether it is noble or selfish. I'm just giving you my opinion on the whole matter. Personally, I haven't been in many ST's where people do this. But, trying to make this a noble deed is too amusing to me to not respond.

There's nothing noble about it. There's nothing malicious about it either, though.

The OP asking for a 4 hour deserter penalty is just absurd.
09-04-2014, 06:03 AM
Tridus1x

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorthernLadMSP

Actually his/her analogy is completely related. This is a multi-player video game in which completing something is based on everyone's contribution, not ditching out when you feel like it. Just like football.

Hmm...It isn't. Bad analogy is bad.
09-04-2014, 06:08 AM
Zumi

People in CT are quickly replaced when someone leaves it happens often every run and its not a big deal. The game offers you little incentive to stay and spend more of your time once you get your loot in CT because you are limited to 1 item per week. However people leaving isn't a problem cause the DF finds a replacement almost right away. By leaving once you got your item it just frees up room for someone else who wants something to get in faster.

CT is the definition of drop in drop out whenever you want casual type of content. If you want strict lotting rules and doing stuff for the benefit of the group then run CT with a FC as a party or use the alliance feature that they just added. The whole reason they added the alliance feature was so large groups could play together.
09-04-2014, 06:12 AM
NorthernLadMSP

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raxion

There's nothing noble about it. There's nothing malicious about it either, though.

The OP asking for a 4 hour deserter penalty is just absurd.

LOL, well I also never said I agreed with a 4-hour penalty.
09-04-2014, 06:35 AM
Tupsi

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loody

This is precisely why it's not a selfish move.

Probably been stated but the number 1 issue with this is:

The person left because they didn't get their drop or got their drop.
I join in Progress, except the loot I wanted was the boss you just defeated, meaning it doesn't actually help in that way :p
09-04-2014, 06:43 AM
Seoulstar

Ok, I'm lost..is this about people who leaves a dungeon or a raid right after they get their loot? Or upset about the chances of getting the loot because other people want it as well.
09-04-2014, 06:59 AM
Kaethra

Quote:

Originally Posted by Makado

The 30 minutes is fair. Even if you made it 10 hours people would just do it and go do something else. You can hunt, do Atma, craft, beast dailies...we don't need people making topics whining because they lost a piece of loot. Everyone has to deal with the same thing.

Not if the debuff for leaving a group early prevents you from getting seals, atma, and other rewards. Would stop people leaving mid dungeon for Rank S's as well. This way if someone rage quits a dungeon, they really do have to logoff and cool off for the time period since they won't get credit for anything during the time.
09-04-2014, 07:42 AM
SgtPepperUK

Quote:

Originally Posted by MageBlack

Make it so you Win your roll at the time of drop but you do not obtain your item until you exit the dungeon properly. Either through exit at the end of the run or by a vote abandon.

I suggested the same thing to some FC mates whilst we were doing ST the other day. The only drawback I can see is if you have an emergency or power cut but those occasions should be pretty rare. The only other issue I can think of is making sure people don't abuse votekick against the person who won, I guess maybe by not having it reveal who won the item until the end.
09-04-2014, 08:02 AM
monochromicorn

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaethra

Not if the debuff for leaving a group early prevents you from getting seals, atma, and other rewards. Would stop people leaving mid dungeon for Rank S's as well. This way if someone rage quits a dungeon, they really do have to logoff and cool off for the time period since they won't get credit for anything during the time.

that would completely destroy any reason to join the instance at all. people pay to play, you pay for me, you can tell me what i can and cant do, dont punish me when i dont play the way you want me to. thats an even harsher and unreasonable punishment than the OP.

so, let me ask you, have you ever left any instance, for any reason?
09-04-2014, 08:14 AM
CYoung187

Quote:

Originally Posted by Niamh_Rillemaugh

Thanks for playing, but I decided to do the math myself,

/snip rabble

)

You have over complicated a very simple statistical analysis. There are no ties or multiple wins. It does not matter if we are rolling out of 100, 1000, 10000000, or 10. Only one person can win in every scenario. If you are really bored please give me the analysis on how 2 + 2 does not equal 4. Show us how stupid we folk are.

Yes 7.5% is not a huge factor, it is still enough to frustrate a player.
09-04-2014, 08:31 AM
Ultimatecalibur

In my understanding, some players believe the rewards for completion of the dungeon are insufficient compared to what can be gained in non-instanced content during the 30 minute penalty and so drop once they have gotten/failed to get the drop they seek rather than completing the dungeon. My question is what would be a sufficient reward for completion that would make those who would drop unwilling to do so?
09-04-2014, 08:40 AM
monochromicorn

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ultimatecalibur

In my understanding, some players believe the rewards for completion of the dungeon are insufficient compared to what can be gained in non-instanced content during the 30 minute penalty and so drop once they have gotten/failed to get the drop they seek rather than completing the dungeon. My question is what would be a sufficient reward for completion that would make those who would drop unwilling to do so?

someone has already given a decent solution. up the soldiery reward. its a long dungeon, and aside from the 1 piece of loot, its not rewarding at all. someone suggested 75 soldiery upon completion. that might be a tad much, maybe 50. it outdoes thehunt, if you get the gear. on its own, it wouldnt be a practial way to cap on soldiery, as i could hunt and craft between said hunts, and cap sol, while ST would just be doing pointless fights. it would be more rewarding for people to finish, and it would be with the soldiery. some peoplke are still going to leave, but thats on them.
09-04-2014, 08:53 AM
Kaethra

Quote:

Originally Posted by monochromicorn

that would completely destroy any reason to join the instance at all. people pay to play, you pay for me, you can tell me what i can and cant do, dont punish me when i dont play the way you want me to. thats an even harsher and unreasonable punishment than the OP.

so, let me ask you, have you ever left any instance, for any reason?

When I killed the last boss. Sure.

You get to play how you wish, when you solo. When you group up with 3 or 7 other players, you make a commitment to them. The penalty exists for that reason. The penalty just isn't harsh enough to actually work.

You're free to make a new character and play that while the debuff runs though. That way you can play your way.
09-04-2014, 08:58 AM
Quesse

Quote:

Originally Posted by chocomaid

but everyone is on fair ground on any loot, no one is more entitled to any loot.

By 'fair ground' you mean the people that exit the dungeon before finishing vs the ones who stay and finish the dungeon?

Let's call it what it is, this whole mess is caused by the Duty Finder. Before the DF, you didn't pull a douche move or no one partied with you anymore. Stuff like this didn't happen on a regular basis.

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