Gathering % Rates

I sure wish SE would post the correct percentages for items and your success rate. Sure you can say something is 85% and then always make us miss 3 or 4 out of 6 tries and say ... well... 85% is still 15 misses out of 100. That is true but we only get 6 tries/swings and I nearly never end up with a percentage of success that the number on the items indicate.

Quit jerking us around and just put 40% or 20% when that's your intent in the first place.

Game is riddled with that kind of crap and SE knows it!

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Originally Posted by Uzziah

I sure wish SE would post the correct percentages for items and your success rate. Sure you can say something is 85% and then always make us miss 3 or 4 out of 6 tries and say ... well... 85% is still 15 misses out of 100. That is true but we only get 6 tries/swings and I nearly never end up with a percentage of success that the number on the items indicate.

Quit jerking us around and just put 40% or 20% when that's your intent in the first place.

Game is riddled with that kind of crap and SE knows it!

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I like to believe that, given enough tries, the hit/miss percentage will match the displayed values.

You can get 3 HQs in a row with only a 15% chance, but you won't complain about that, will you? :P

85% means just that. It does not make you magically immune to failures after 2 consecutive failures, for example. It's like flipping the coin - no way you are guaranteed to see "heads" at least once in 2, 3, 4 or even 10 flips.

Unless you are keeping track of it over at least 500 attempts the misses will be misleading. A % is just a chance so in theory you could actually never miss and just get really lucky. While someone could miss every time. However like said above, the more you gather and keep notes the more you will see it move towards that average of 80%.

I just had misses 5 in a row on a 79% tree. That is 0.21^5 = 0.0004084. In other word, this "5 misses in a row" would occur every 2448.5 tree that I gather. In general, I think it is reasonable consider how many trees you have to break to get one level....

RNG is a meanyhead. :(

So you know its 85% for each swing, right? I mean, I can't flip a coin, get heads, and guarantee tails the next time b/c it's 50%.

Ya I've noticed this as well. It seems very consistent, that you'll have say a tree or mining point that says 97-99%, and you will miss a hit nearly every time you hit that particular tree/mining point. I'll admit it doesn't happen all the time, but it happens more often then not, making you feel like there is a misrepresentation of the %. I spent about 4 hours last night mining over in the desert region, mining up mythril ore. I had one point that was 97% when I started out, and it got to 100% eventually, from me leveling and equipping better gear. But before I hit 100% it was nearly every time I hit that point, i would miss once, and I'm like wth. I know its not 100%, but statistically I shouldn't miss maybe a few times during my visit to that spot for the evening. It feels like there is still some kind of random number generator going into effect on this stuff.

Thats just bad luck. I have had times where I miss there but the majority of the time but normally would go 5-6 nodes without a miss past 95%

Can't tell you the amount of times 93% = 0%

It's an overall average. You as an individual won't get 85% of the mats you go for just because it says 85%. It means that of all the thousands of players mining millions of times, on average 85% of the attempts will be successful.

In other words, learn to statistics.

I've been very lucky with my mining. I mine up a stack of each material while leveling and then check how many HQs I received. It is always above the 15%, and usually even at or above the 25% I can occasionally buff to.

99 alumite / 33 HQ alumite = 25%
99 iron ore / 27 HQ iron ore = 21%

I also don't get very many bad streaks in the gather percent. If it is at 70%+ I don't remember ever failing twice in a row. Sometimes in the 60% range though I'll fail a whole node. I'm happy if I'm trading some luck on gather chance for higher yields on HQ items!

There have been lots of times that I didn't get an HQ from 5 attempts at 25%. I've failed all four gathering attempts at 65%. Honestly, it's more of a pain when you're synthing HQ because you lose materials and more time. "96%, okay it's in the bag! ... What?!"

You can play around with the generator at random.org if you want. Using the default values of 1 to 100, every time you see a number greater than your percent chance, you fail. Pretend mining! Or wait, we already pretend mine. Pretend pretend mining! Really, though, it'll help you understand how it works if you don't already.

Edit: Actually with their integer page, you can just tell it how many times you want to mine and view the results. Try 1,000 and look for the failure streaks. :)

These rates are very accurate. In every case when looking at percentages you must use very large data samples(not one node or 10 - you need somewhere around 100 or more to get accurate data to make your conclusions, some would suggest 1000 or 10000 for better accuracy). I have my luminary botany tool already and I can assure you that the percentages are correct. When I farm 5-10 stacks of any item I am always within +- 1-5% accuracy without using any of my gp abilities. Of course If I use them things change drastically! I honestly think for leveling purposes there should be a much smaller HQ chance to make the economy work better for those that put the time in....

I often "miss" 5 tries in a row from a node with 74% chance.

Calculate the chance of this happening, and compare it to 25%.

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Originally Posted by Rabbio

I've been very lucky with my mining.

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Its not really "lucky".

For one, your % is not at a constant 15%. It will vary anywhere between 15-50% depending on what abilities you use and when. If you use your abilities regularly, your avg % HQ will be quite a bit higher than 15%. There's no way we could do the math on it w/o a lot more information, but what you're saying is not lucky nor unusual. You just aren't accounting for all the variables that lead to those results.

It's called the 'relative frequency estimate of a probability'

In laymen terms it means the more times you attempt the listed activity, the closer you get to probability of that activity occurring.

Problem is the number of times you can do it is limited by the game mechanics and RNG. End result % achieved is never going to exactly the % listed for the activity unless its 100%.

Statistics can be a real headache, and SE can't do anything about it.

Your sample size is too small. Anomalies are bound to occur.

Come back to me after 10,000 gathering attempts of the exact same item, and we can talk about your result accuracy.

yes a particular node at 85% is per hit, but when you're getting 3000 / 5000 tries, you have to be close to approaching the relative point


the logarithm needs some work, a checksum where the % was taken into account that based the upcoming hits off the previous hit would be more accurate unless the point of it is to piss people off and make yields lower than actual, in my experience I have never out of all the mining/gathering i've done, ever come remotely close to the %'s described

You guys are gathering above your level. It might only be a level or two but you are really hurting your numbers when doing that.

I Gather by HQ stacks and I get a 99 HQ stack with 450-500 NQ in the process. I've done it well below level and at level and the number never changes. If I go even one level above though, that gets dicey. It might seem tempting to over level gather but in the end, it doesn't work out to a benefit. If you are 22, gather the 22. Vendor it, sell it, throw it away but don't skip materials.

Just my experience.

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Originally Posted by Uzziah

I sure wish SE would post the correct percentages for items and your success rate. Sure you can say something is 85% and then always make us miss 3 or 4 out of 6 tries and say ... well... 85% is still 15 misses out of 100. That is true but we only get 6 tries/swings and I nearly never end up with a percentage of success that the number on the items indicate.

Quit jerking us around and just put 40% or 20% when that's your intent in the first place.

Game is riddled with that kind of crap and SE knows it!

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Wow posts like these :(
Please tell me what percent you are at for 100000 attempts. Exactly please

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Originally Posted by Lux_Rayna

Its not really "lucky".

For one, your % is not at a constant 15%. It will vary anywhere between 15-50% depending on what abilities you use and when. If you use your abilities regularly, your avg % HQ will be quite a bit higher than 15%. There's no way we could do the math on it w/o a lot more information, but what you're saying is not lucky nor unusual. You just aren't accounting for all the variables that lead to those results.

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Sorry, I forgot about this thread. I would say it's the definition of luck. I do not mine in sizes large enough to meet the intended percents. If I get higher than the intended percents I was... lucky! The entire "art" of gambling relies on exactly that. Beating the odds then quitting before they average back out.

I also was under level 20 mining when I posted this. I don't have HQ percents from 15-50. I, as I mentioned, have HQ at either 15%, or 25% with a buff. Those were the variables at the time for me.

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Originally Posted by WarJunkie

Statistics can be a real headache, and SE can't do anything about it.

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That's not really true.
They controll the random number generator, if they picked a generator with a better distribution of the generated numbers, we wouldn't have this problem.

I have to admit, it often feels like the Law of Large Numbers has abandoned me in this game. Though I have taken to just sitting back and laughing about it. I recently got lucky in crafting, excellent with Great Strides let me max quality in one try. And then I spent the next 9 attempts trying to hit the 70% chance of a Steady Hands- Rapid Synthesis. After three failures I just wanted to see if it would screw me completely to the end, which it did.

Then again, if you spend hours gathering and crafting off percentages you'll eventually hit that monkey-with-a-typewriter chance.

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Originally Posted by Kenka

I like to believe that, given enough tries, the hit/miss percentage will match the displayed values.

You can get 3 HQs in a row with only a 15% chance, but you won't complain about that, will you? :P

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This is right. I get frustrated about the rates, but get much more HQ mats when the percentage is much lower. I guess it kind of balances out.

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You obtain nothing.
You obtain nothing.
You obtain 3 Trillium.
You obtain nothing.
You obtain nothing.
You obtain nothing.

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This was with a 98% gather rate. Just to add more fuel to the OP.

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Originally Posted by Kenka

I like to believe that, given enough tries, the hit/miss percentage will match the displayed values.

You can get 3 HQs in a row with only a 15% chance, but you won't complain about that, will you? :P

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I literally tell myself the gathering rates lie. And then I do enx up getting 3 HQ in a row I just laugh on the insixe

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Originally Posted by Duuude007

Your sample size is too small. Anomalies are bound to occur.

Come back to me after 10,000 gathering attempts of the exact same item, and we can talk about your result accuracy.

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As the Duuude abides all percents in this game are taken to the Nth degree so even if you strike 100 times or fail 100 times in the beginning, down the line the numbers correct to show the percentage just like drops but unlike those super hard drops gathering is not a one and done thing.

The percentages are simply a probability of success for each attempt. It is not for each node, or overall attempts. It is a very basic system, which reduces overhead by NOT looking at overall totals.

Example only: The game generates a number from 1-100 each time you attempt to gather something. It then compares this number to the actual probabilty. The higher number wins.

Probability=higher, you get the item
Probability=lower, you fail

The number is re-generated for each attempt, so there is no point in looking at large pools of data. This is obviously the system in use, just based on the inconsistent long-term results.

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Originally Posted by Uzziah

Percentages aren't accurate stuff.

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You're going to get flooded with people who haven't actually tested it. I have. You are correct - the percentages are not accurately reflected in game.

683 hits while farming iron ore, with either a 15% or 20% HQ rate depending on the node and a 100% mining success rate. 76 of the 683 were HQ. That's an 11% rate, roughly, out of a large enough sample size to be statistically valid.

Same thing farming oak logs down in South Shroud. Either 80% or 90% success rate shown, depending on the node. 497 attempts, 362 successful harvests. That's a 73% success rate, again, out of a large enough sample to be valid.

Whatever they're using as the seed for their RNG needs to be adjusted.

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Originally Posted by fixitman

The percentages are simply a probability of success for each attempt. It is not for each node, or overall attempts. It is a very basic system, which reduces overhead by NOT looking at overall totals.

Example only: The game generates a number from 1-100 each time you attempt to gather something. It then compares this number to the actual probabilty. The higher number wins.

Probability=higher, you get the item
Probability=lower, you fail

The number is re-generated for each attempt, so there is no point in looking at large pools of data. This is obviously the system in use, just based on the inconsistent long-term results.

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You need to go look at how RNG coding works. Over long term, properly coded RNG should in fact give predictable percentages, so yes, large pools of data absolutely do matter.