Dawntrail Predictions

title says it lets have some fun with speculations an theories! can even make a bingo card of it if you wish :)
i'll get the ball rolling

-usual tour guide quests to lead us around Tuliyollal we learn its history an background etc
-after some time the leader gajul is assassinated but leaves behind the key to the "golden city"
-we reach the golden city but viewed as outsiders or savages so no one will help us until we meet the girl who clears everything up
-discover that the golden city planned for world domination but were deterred by the presence of a greater threat(possibly elder primal)
-back in Tuliyollal there is a civil war between parties with us assisting the brother of Wuk Lamat to bring order
-City of Gold is launching a campaign against Tuliyollal and we have to defend it
-after settling the differences between nations we learn there was a mastermind probably in the form a great ai presence created by the original creators of the golden city an we have to shut it down to free the enslaved citizens of the golden city.
-end credits an we get our lead in for the 8 man raid

Here's mine:

1. We get to the New World and get tour guided around for a bit
2. Prove ourselves to locals by doing odd jobs, seeing new zones
3. The whatever tournament happens and we succeed in beating the hell out of them and helping Wuk Lamat become the Dawnservant
4. Wuk Lamat turns out to be a terrible leader, tyrannical and everyone hates her, everyone hates us especially because we helped her become Dawnservant
5. When we confront her about it, she kicks us out, so now we're stuck halfway across the world with no allies (Bloody Banquet 2.0)
6. Krile remembers that thing about the Golden City and her grandfather, we follow a lead to learn more about it and eventually find it with help left behind by Krile's family
7. Krile helps us learn more about Solution Nine and gain their trust, we learn more about it, etc
8. S9 helps us depose Wuk Lamat and helps us find a better Dawnservant, everyone is happy again
9. Erenville becomes the end boss of the post-MSQ alliance raid

My biggest predictions:


Heritage Found and Solution 9 are related somehow to the 12th shard. Whether it's survivors of the 12th or related to survivors of the Second Umbral Calamity. The Levin is too prominent even in the marketing and the civilization that was wiped out by the Second Calamity despoiled the star with, seemingly, rapid advances in technology. The Levin shard may have been unbalanced with Levin in much the same way.

My other prediction is that the game will end with Wuk Lamat and Koana co-ruling and Zoraal dead. Galool Ja Ja's titles being "Vow of Resolve" and "Vow of Reason" feels too pointed. Wuk Lamat is resolve personified and Koana seems to lean reason.

If you ask me, the best kind of prediction is to call a really specific shot, so that it actually looks impressive when you land one and we all forget that you wildly missed on all the rest.

And personally my style is to instead predict around the story, not directly at it, so here's mine:

• Koana will be the most popular new character in the expansion, despite having very little personality and not actually doing all that much.
• Shaaloani will have an overwrought pun FATE name that we'll all curse Koji Fox for. It will actually be Kate's doing.
• The most that the Ascians/Ancients get will be an off-handed mention that you wouldn't even notice without looking for it. Unless you're talking to someone who's primarily an Ascian/Ancient fan, in which case it'll sound like the single most important part of the story.
• One of the main Mamool Ja will be played by a 'That Guy'-level actor, where you kinda recognize their voice but can't put your finger on it until you hit the credits and go 'OH YEAH HIM'.
• The twist around Solution Nine will actually be fairly mundane compared to most leading predictions about it. People will call it a bad twist at the time, but it's mostly because they overshot it in weirdness; people who weren't on the pre-release prediction train will be kinder to it.
• One of the role quests--let's say melee DPS--will get a REALLY angry community around it. Everyone will either be completely in agreement that it was absolutely horrible, or will go 'I dunno what everyone's so mad about, that was just fine'. Not great, just fine.
• Y'shtola's role will be minimal and essentially amount to a cameo. People will still complain about it somehow.
• Krile's storyline is going to be one of the most moving stories in the entire game. Despite this, it'll be about the fourth or fifth bullet point for Dawntrail's high points in the collective community memory of the story.
• Nobody in the main cast will die, and if we're honest nobody really comes close. You'll have a 'friend-of-a-friend' level acquaintance who's way madder about this than you can really fathom.
• The game won't meaningfully be any harder on either the casual or hardcore levels, but the second trial will have a single mechanic that just obliterates casual runs.
• Zoraal Ja will have a solo boss fight that we plot-lose. The reason for our loss will be entirely reasonable and not even especially impactful beyond just handing us an L, but people will still be upset that it happened.
• Wuk Lamat's story will be okay-not-great with a few strong scenes. It'll be broadly well-received, except among a small collection of people that apparently either didn't understand it or are willingly misinterpreting it; you will never be confident which.
• The will be a time magic-adjacent story element, possibly around that chalice-ey looking macguffin in the gameplay trailer; not time travel, but something around slowing, reversing or freezing time, or stopping aging, something in that general range. It won't actually be that complicated, but will somehow get the most 'I don't understand'-level questions of the entire expansion.
• Overall, the community will like Dawntrail's story just fine, probably around Heavensward-level but without the novelty of 'I didn't know this game could be good'.

I think what we're learning is that the main thing I'm confident about is what people will get mad about.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Grivvaint

My other prediction is that the game will end with Wuk Lamat and Koana co-ruling and Zoraal dead. Galool Ja Ja's titles being "Vow of Resolve" and "Vow of Reason" feels too pointed. Wuk Lamat is resolve personified and Koana seems to lean reason.

---

That's a good point I didn't think of and likely end result of the quest for the throne IMO.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cleretic

The most that the Ascians/Ancients get will be an off-handed mention that you wouldn't even notice without looking for it. Unless you're talking to someone who's primarily an Ascian/Ancient fan, in which case it'll sound like the single most important part of the story.

---

I'm not even an Ancient/Ascian fan and said for months that I wanted no Allagans, Ancients, Ascians, or Garleans but after seeing a sigil/glyph (that I'm still not unconvinced is the logo for Arcadion derived from an sigil of an unaccounted for Ascian) and the players being told to "remember the seats of the Convocation" when an interviewer asked Yoshi-P what to recall from the past for Dawntrail's MSQ I think they or the consequences of one's plans are bound to show up. Plus there's so far no anachronistically advanced civilizations in the world that the Ascians were not involved with.


My own personal takes on Solution Nine keep changing and at this point I think I'm just ready to be surprised rather than having my theories proved right/wrong but as for my admittedly tame predictions for everything else:
- Koana ends up on the throne with or without Wuk Lamat since he's the only reasonable one (from what we've seen). If it's as Grivvaint says then maybe the throne requires two heads/people and they both end up working together by the end.
- Erenville and maybe even his Viera tribe are some sort of protectors of the secrets of the continent.
- Zoraal is killed by the Niners invasion just after or just before the level 97 dungeon after it looks like he's about to claim the throne and the key is taken off his corpse.
- Zoraal is the "starter villain" of the expansion whom we chase through much of it before the Enigmatic Maiden steps in, who is sort of in a grey moral zone since her plan makes sense to us but we have to defeat her and she ends up getting redeemed by the end, her plan half-fulfilled and Solution Nine here to stay since it's the endgame hub.
- The Garleans/Ilsabard will get some sort of blink-and-you'll-miss-it update on what's going on over there.

- Pictomancer quest involves a story revolving around the Archon Relm and a Sharlayan historian putting the pieces together.
- Viper quest involves going place to place in Eorzea with some Mamool Ja hunting down large game.

A lot of mine have been said by others in this thread already, but as for the others:

-Wuk Lamat doesn't turn out to be a tyrant or otherwise completely unsuited to be Dawnservant, but at journey's end comes to the conclusion on her own that she would be of greater help traveling the world. This makes her a sort of narrative foil to Lyse: Lyse grudgingly accepted the reins of leadership (though according to her she was later largely removed from these duties by Raubahn) and then exited the main cast to help restore Ala Mhigo while Wuk Lamat reluctantly refuses the call in favor of pursuing the greater good.

-A new loosely aligned fellowship is formed to address the new overarching plot (whatever it happens to be) comprised of the Scions and new allies in Tural, and this plays out in the mid term similarly to A Realm Reborn or 1.0 where everybody is off in their own corners and we collaborate with them when our goals intersect with their given tasks.

-Koana ends up the new Dawnservant and his arc continues until around 7.2 regarding making a lasting partnership with Solution Nine with all his talk of bettering Tural with technological innovation.

-Erenville is not secretly important to the succession contest, but otherwise has deep connections to the overarching historical storyline.

-Tural is the origin of one or both Othardian Viera clans.

Predictions?

I think….

-The expansion will lay groundwork in a broad sense for future expansions or raids. That is to say if the phenomena around S9 is indeed related to the rejoined shard/levin calamity, I expect the Ridorana Cataract then to be related to water. Or, Kairos will come back up and eventually become related to why nobody remembers the heroes from Dalamud days.

-The whole throne contest thing will be over and done with by like, level 93. Mayyyybe 95.

-We will find out Wuk Lamut isn’t really the best pick for the leader. But it’ll be fine.

-Our boy Cid will be needed to break some kinda barrier. Again. Probably to get into S9.

-We will get to S9 quickish. Probably level 95ish.

-Everything we generally know about currently will also be wrapped up by 95ish, and that’s when “the fire nation attacks” and stuff we couldn’t predict goes down. I vote hollow earth with low ish confidence. I wouldn’t bet money on it, but wouldn’t be surprised either.

-the major conflict will be between the remaining Imperial army under what’s-his-face and a fight to control the vast ceureleum deposits. Probably this will lead back to Bozja areas/Merycidia in future expacs. Probably also major themes comparable to green energy vs fossil fuels; how dirty ceureleum is or how damaging it is to environs. I don’t expect it to defeat him in this expac, but to establish some kinda “protect nature doctrine”…aka go go gadget national parks.


Re: before you ask wtf hollow earth!? Ecological messaging!?
Many Native American cultures have creation myths based on humans coming from the world below. There are different variations of it, but currently we are what would be called the “fourth world” or a “blue world” with sky. Other worlds being below ground.

There are many mythological creatures, elements or themes that are just too rich for SE to not take advantage of, even if it’s just a minor bit. I can’t imagine it being more than 1 zone, and/or one dungeon…but eh.

Also, Native American culture was often used to show how living with nature is generally better than ravaging the land…so I expect some eco-messages. Probably a Koji Fox reference to Godzilla vs Smog monster. Even better if we can use our mech again…

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Grivvaint

My other prediction is that the game will end with Wuk Lamat and Koana co-ruling and Zoraal dead. Galool Ja Ja's titles being "Vow of Resolve" and "Vow of Reason" feels too pointed. Wuk Lamat is resolve personified and Koana seems to lean reason.

---

This seems very plausible to me.

Free space for the Bingo card, Y'shtola has a fake-out "death"

it just wouldn't be right if they don't continue the proud tradition.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Grivvaint

My other prediction is that the game will end with Wuk Lamat and Koana co-ruling and Zoraal dead. Galool Ja Ja's titles being "Vow of Resolve" and "Vow of Reason" feels too pointed. Wuk Lamat is resolve personified and Koana seems to lean reason.

---

The more I think on it, the more likely this seems. It would be a hell of a red herring if it didn't pan out this way, truthfully (though there have been plenty of those in this story). Given that two-headed Mamool Ja are in essence two minds in one body, it wouldn't even be much of a practical change from the current situation. It would also give Wuk Lamat some wiggle room to not be tied to Tuliyollal if they decide to let her linger in the MSQ as Koana would ostensibly be better suited to the banality of day-to-day governance.

Here's my diagram :) Please note this contains spoilers for Media Tour/LL information!

Click here - it's big

It focuses more on structure based on evidence we've had so far from in-game and the trailer - story elements are more fuzzy.

Sadly, the preliminary patch notes have reminded me about another prediction that I'm surprised I didn't write down, but is no longer all that impressive if I do write it:

The ALC/CUL questline will be yet another storyline that is entirely written for Culinarian that only barely remembers to justify that Alchemist is there too. I will be the only person actively mad about this.

This might seem a bit out there, but an underwater area which allows you to see the coral encrusted rocket boosters beneath the quite clearly alien fishing village. This will be a purely environmental storyline with little to no textual acknowledgement.

Some last-minute predictions:
(note that I decided not to watch the launch trailer to avoid spoilers, so apologies if any of the following has already been confirmed or ruled out)

- It's pretty much a given that DT will contain references to FF9, but since 6.55 already namedropped Relm and Valigarmanda it might also draw inspiration from FF6 (which is my favorite game in the series so I hope that's true!).

- Speaking of Valigarmanda, since it has been referred to a "legendary beast" and also shares its name with a summon from an earlier FF, there's a good chance it will turn out to be a primal (or rather, we will have to fight a primal based on it). After all, there's no reason why summon magic couldn't exist in the New World as well. It'sd possible that it has been lost for centuries and now the villain has revived it to further his plans (only to have those plans thwarted by the fact that Wuk Lamat happened to invite the Primal Slayer on her team).

- Which brings me to the (inevitable?) Ascians. Maybe one of the surviving Convocation members whose names we were told to recall was responsible for introducing summoning, and now we will have to deal with them. Also, given that Zodiark is gone and everything the Ascians fought for all these millenia has fallen apart, the survivors are bound to be suffering a major existential crisis that might be enough to turn them around. After all, Emet-Selch did acknowledge they had been on the wrong path all along; maybe some of the others realized that as well, and now they want to make amends and help us. I mean, by this point we've gotten chummy with pretty much all our surviving foes, including Gaius van Baelsar, so working alongside a reformed Ascian would only be the logical conclusion (not to mention that the Eden storyline already gave us a reformed former Ascian as ally, although she has no memories of her former life).

- And lastly, given that 6.55 presented Wuk Lamat as somewhat boastful, we can expect her to get some major character developement over the course of DT, possibly furthered by a major event that will have as much of an impact as the Crystal Braves fiasco did for Alphinaud.

Throwing in a last-minute wildcard prediction (while I sit here in "let me in" mode):

The reason they're being all coy about Solution Nine's residents isn't because they're something unearthly, it's because they're Viera and Erenville is from there.

The story actually being good

Theory at level 92: Solution Nine's inhabitants are incorporeal (as other posters have predicted but I never liked as a prospect) and they've been spinning the tale of the golden city to lure people in and then bodysnatch them, which is why anyone who seeks it doesn't return.

I suddenly remembered this thread, and decided it'd be fun to do a quick review. Highlighting mainly people who were accurate with a guess that didn't seem to be a given.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ShadowyZero

-after settling the differences between nations we learn there was a mastermind probably in the form a great ai presence created by the original creators of the golden city an we have to shut it down to free the enslaved citizens of the golden city.

---

Nailing the final boss basically out of nowhere is worth due credit.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NegativeS

4. Wuk Lamat turns out to be a terrible leader, tyrannical and everyone hates her, everyone hates us especially because we helped her become Dawnservant

---

Most of NegativeS' guesses were off the mark because they were really into this 'Wuk Lamat is a bad person' idea, but I do think it's funny that if you swap out Wuk Lamat with Zoraal Ja it's actually not too far wrong.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Grivvaint

My other prediction is that the game will end with Wuk Lamat and Koana co-ruling and Zoraal dead. Galool Ja Ja's titles being "Vow of Resolve" and "Vow of Reason" feels too pointed. Wuk Lamat is resolve personified and Koana seems to lean reason.

---

I remember thinking this one felt like a reach when I first read it, but... no, Grivvaint got it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Vallavia

-Erenville is not secretly important to the succession contest, but otherwise has deep connections to the overarching historical storyline.

---

Basically the only person I saw anywhere that explicitly bet on Erenville remaining a low-key presence.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kaynide

-The whole throne contest thing will be over and done with by like, level 93. Mayyyybe 95.

-Everything we generally know about currently will also be wrapped up by 95ish, and that’s when “the fire nation attacks” and stuff we couldn’t predict goes down. I vote hollow earth with low ish confidence. I wouldn’t bet money on it, but wouldn’t be surprised either.

---

The broad strokes of this prediction I'd have called pretty safe, but kaynide was right about the turn being at level 95 exactly, and that's impressive.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Turethir

Here's my diagram :) Please note this contains spoilers for Media Tour/LL information!

Click here - it's big

It focuses more on structure based on evidence we've had so far from in-game and the trailer - story elements are more fuzzy.

---

Turethir almost scored 100% on the actual structure of the expansion; the only things they whiffed on were a circling back to earlier zones that didn't happen, and putting what we now know as Vanguard instead where Origenics is. I consider this mainly impressive because of them correctly putting the Kozuma'uka and Urqopacha revisits right after the split instead of near the end, which has actually never happened before.

And last of all, my own predictions were mostly me having fun, and a lot of them are community reaction predictions that won't be properly proven right or wrong anytime soon, but a few were either surprisingly close out of nowhere or comically off the mark.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cleretic

• The most that the Ascians/Ancients get will be an off-handed mention that you wouldn't even notice without looking for it. Unless you're talking to someone who's primarily an Ascian/Ancient fan, in which case it'll sound like the single most important part of the story. (Calling the Ascians/Ancients a footnote would be overselling their presence, but we're still speculating on 'em.)
• One of the main Mamool Ja will be played by a 'That Guy'-level actor, where you kinda recognize their voice but can't put your finger on it until you hit the credits and go 'OH YEAH HIM'. (Gulool Ja Ja's VA was Twister in Rocket Power!)
• Y'shtola's role will be minimal and essentially amount to a cameo. People will still complain about it somehow. (Look, 'complaining' was the given here, the 'basically a cameo' was the long shot.)
• Krile's storyline is going to be one of the most moving stories in the entire game. Despite this, it'll be about the fourth or fifth bullet point for Dawntrail's high points in the collective community memory of the story. (She made me cry, but I don't see anyone else owning up to that.)
• Nobody in the main cast will die, and if we're honest nobody really comes close. You'll have a 'friend-of-a-friend' level acquaintance who's way madder about this than you can really fathom. (Comically wrong; I think Dawntrail might have the highest 'named character bodycount' of all expansions.)
• The will be a time magic-adjacent story element, possibly around that chalice-ey looking macguffin in the gameplay trailer; not time travel, but something around slowing, reversing or freezing time, or stopping aging, something in that general range. It won't actually be that complicated, but will somehow get the most 'I don't understand'-level questions of the entire expansion. (how was I completely on the money on this one)
  
  The ALC/CUL questline will be yet another storyline that is entirely written for Culinarian that only barely remembers to justify that Alchemist is there too. I will be the only person actively mad about this. (The Botanist/Miner questline has more alchemy in it!)

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cleretic

The broad strokes of this prediction I'd have called pretty safe, but kaynide was right about the turn being at level 95 exactly, and that's impressive.

---

To be fair, almost every expansion to date has been kinda this way in -some- way.

That is to say, other than Stormblood, we typically get something that we couldn't have guessed before the expac launched at around X5 level.

-Heavansward Around 55 is where we "defeat" Nidhogg and the narrative shifts back to Ascians and the pope.
-Stormblood is a wildcard, they were still figuring it out I guess.
-Shadowbringers is when Emet joins the party more...formally? And reveals the whole Hyd/Zod are primals bit.
-Endwalker we saw Elpis

It was a guess, but it's also pretty formulaic by now to reveal -something- new story-wise by X5.

I don’t really know how visible named characters have to be to count. I think endwalker base probably beats dt, shb might too.

Arr: the waking sands guys including lettuce and amnesiacs, dolorous bear’s team and edda’s fiancé, namingway the spy [~11]
Hw: ysael, haruchfant, lahabrea, iggy, thordan, a dozen knights but they don’t really count. [5-17]
Sb: old resistance man, Zenos, namedayboy, papalymo just missed out by a hair, the guy Zenos or fordola killed from arr [~4]
Shb: tesleen, vauthry, hades, ardbert and his friends. Also alphinaud, alise and the player character in the calamity timeline [8-11+]
Ew: king man, hermes, zenos, fandaniel, hydaelyn, zodiark/elidibus, quintus, (Elvis and the contacted civilisations if they count too) [7+]
Dt: 57 year old nurse, gajaja, zaja, untrustworthy vizier, erenville ‘s mother, (all the npcs in living memory), the head of reason can count separately. [6+]

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by fulminating

I don’t really know how visible named characters have to be to count. I think endwalker base probably beats dt, shb might too.

Arr: the waking sands guys including lettuce and amnesiacs, dolorous bear’s team and edda’s fiancé, namingway the spy [~11]
Hw: ysael, haruchfant, lahabrea, iggy, thordan, a dozen knights but they don’t really count. [5-17]
Sb: old resistance man, Zenos, namedayboy, papalymo just missed out by a hair, the guy Zenos or fordola killed from arr [~4]
Shb: tesleen, vauthry, hades, ardbert and his friends. Also alphinaud, alise and the player character in the calamity timeline [8-11+]
Ew: king man, hermes, zenos, fandaniel, hydaelyn, zodiark/elidibus, quintus, (Elvis and the contacted civilisations if they count too) [7+]
Dt: 57 year old nurse, gajaja, zaja, untrustworthy vizier, erenville ‘s mother, (all the npcs in living memory), the head of reason can count separately. [6+]

---

My metric is specifically 'on-screen death, or confirmation of death, of a named character with on-screen characterization, that is not reversed somehow'. Basically, someone that your average player could at least plausibly recognize, remember and describe. There's some iffy ones, but I lean towards allowing the weird edge cases. And specifically looking at the MSQ, which I'll concede does shrink ShB and EW's counts.

That counting basically leaves Dawntrail with Namikka, both Gulool Ja Ja's heads (I agree on counting them separately), Sareel Ja, Zoraal Ja, Otis, Cahciua, Sphene, and I'd personally count Krile's parents but I recognize that's an odd edge case. That's ten by my count before we get to patches.

Thanks for lining up the others, so I can say that I'd personally put EW at six (I do count Hermes and Amon-Fandaniel separately, but I don't count Elidibus), ShB at four (I would count Ardbert, I wouldn't count the rest of his crew if only talking MSQ), StB at a surprisingly low four (five if we stretch to allow Yotsuyu), and HW at a... kind of indeterminate amount, depending entirely on how many of the Heaven's Ward we decide crossed the threshold of 'is an actual character'; personally I'd go for four (the three Vault bosses, and the guy in the courtroom), bringing that expansion to a pretty competitive nine, but I admit that feels generous. I'd really have to replay ARR to get my count for that.

I admit I lean towards the generous count for every expansion, and DT has a few edge cases not everyone else would count, but I feel like it's unarguably pretty high up there.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MikkoAkure

The Garleans/Ilsabard will get some sort of blink-and-you'll-miss-it update on what's going on over there.

---

There were two whole lines in the expansion about the Garleans and it was just the twins reiterating their purpose of being in the New World as having to do with learning about multiculturalism to help the Garleans...

While I'm glad there was no far-flung Garlean legion like people had predicted in other threads long ago, it feels a bit awkward that practically nothing that happens in Endwalker gets mentioned in Dawntrail except for Montichaigne's lesson on souls. I feel like the story could very well have gotten away with being a spin-off that while being meant to follow Endwalker and the Hydaelyn-Zodiark saga, could have been a fresh start for new players and not have that as a hard requirement like how FFXI handled its expansions.


By the way, has anyone figured out what we were supposed to remember Convocation seats or the Myths of the Realm for? I don't feel like the shot of Azem's symbol would be it and unless I missed something, maybe it's something that happens later in the patches for the 2 raid series or MSQ.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MikkoAkure

By the way, has anyone figured out what we were supposed to remember Convocation seats or the Myths of the Realm for? I don't feel like the shot of Azem's symbol would be it

---

I think it actually was. Like I pointed out when that reminder was recent, it was likely never going to be anything big, the equivalent for Endwalker was basically just a list of things that got referenced with conditional text. That sounds like exactly the way that they'd prime us to keep a Convocation member's duties (in this case, Azem's) in mind without giving us too much to go on.

That doesn't really explain Myths of the Realm, and nothing particularly rings a bell there for me (unless you want to make a connection between Nald'thal and the blessed siblings' really bad mortality rate), but maybe that just had really quiet conditional text somewhere?