Please do something about it already.

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How I feel except with the Caster coat. 32 runs and I still have not seen in drop once.

Oh my God that suuuuuuucks!
I hope you can get it! Good luck~

So... you want them to do something about your having bad luck? Id love it if they could fix my luck too. Ive run orbonne at least 60 times(going back to when it was current) and i havent won the mini yet. Ill keep at it, and eventually it probly pops up in a mogtome event. I hope to have it before then, but i certainly wouldnt skip it because of something stupid like pride.

As for you, i wouldnt worry. In about 3 weeks the new patch will add the 2nd stage of the alliance raids for this tier. In order to upgrade current gear you need the coin from all the stages up to this point(so upgrading 5.2 gear takes 2 coins, and in a year upgrading 5.4 coins will take all 3). So a lot of people who dont currently run CF will start doing so again for their weekly coin. These people either dont care about the 2b outfit, or already have it.

Now you teach me something. How does one "filter runs to be only one caster in party"? Because im sometimes rolling against 4 or 5 other casters for gear drops, and id love to cut that down.

Yeah it must be really difficult to run something and have 3 identical copies of the item you want drop every single time. Bad rolls are bad rolls, but at least you get a chance at it every time you complete it. As far as grinding for loot goes, I think it's the most bountiful.

Maybe ask people in alliance chat if you can have one because you still don't have it yet? If they don't there's nothing you can do. I doubt SE will just give it to you because you ran it 30 times.

If I'm doing maths right on my phone calculator... (0.875) (x^y) (32) = 0.014 = only a 1.4% chance of doing 32 runs and not getting it once.

0.875 being your 7-in-8 chance of not getting it on a single run.

Bad luck just statistically happens sometimes.

Theoretically I could run the Drowned City of Skalla forever and never get the fending coat.

Theoretically I could send my retainer out forever and never have them come back with the special untraceable onion helm (the one you only get from them, not the other one).

Theoretically you could never get the special ring for getting 1st prize at the jumbo cactpot.

Man ... Thinking about it there are quite a few things we do in FF14 that do not guarantee the reward you're shooting for. In some ways that's scary, but in others it helps some activities (like fishing) feel kinda "at home" for me.
But I got the fending coat.
My retainer brought back that helmet.
AND YOU CAN GET THIS CHEST!

That's unforunate, I sympathize.

But it's also just really bad luck, it's unfortunate but not something that really needs to be changed.

Did another orbonne last night, rolled a 3 on the mini. So i guess im going back again.

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Originally Posted by rsod

You only think like that until you get into that situation...

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I have been in that situation. I farmed Ghimlyt Dark for like 8-10 hours in the week leading up to Shadowbringer's launch looking for the tank body piece. It was literally the only piece that never dropped for me. I still don't have it.

That said, it's just bad luck. I could have gotten it first try, and I have gotten other items with better luck before and after (like I was lucky to get the Bonewicca body set the first time it appeared in a run for me, was less lucky with the hat for a while).

It took me 12 weeks into savage to get my first BiS piece coffer, had to buy everything else so far with books and I have won exactly 1 Crystalline Glaze in this entire tier. It's frustrating but that's just the way it is sometimes.

took me over a year to see the maiming boots in WoD
and i wasnt even Drg when they dropped so i didnt even get it
RNG is rough

Well and I have with mounts usually the luck that I am under 10 dice and usually the last one who gets a mount.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

If I'm doing maths right on my phone calculator... (0.875) (x^y) (32) = 0.014 = only a 1.4% chance of doing 32 runs and not getting it once.

0.875 being your 7-in-8 chance of not getting it on a single run.

Bad luck just statistically happens sometimes.

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The math isn't quite right since there's 3 drops per run so they had 96 chances rather than 32. They're also likely rolling against more the 7 other people. Going by what they just said in the last post they were usually rolling against 10-15 people.

It's also muddied by not being a 1 in n players roll so the base chance of losing isn't exactly (n-1)/n. E.g. rolling a 2 has a chance of winning and 98 has a chance of losing, but 2 has a much lower chance of winning than 98 does of losing. The same can be said for 3 and 97, 4 and 96, etc, so the overall weighting is unevenly skewed towards losing on average. Over time and looking at all players rolls it would be a (n-1)/n probability, but from the perspective of a single player, their probability would depend heavily on their individual rolls and only rolls above 90 would have a reasonable chance of actually winning.

All that said, yeah that's still unlucky to not have won it in 32 runs.

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Originally Posted by Frizze

So... you want them to do something about your having bad luck? Id love it if they could fix my luck too. Ive run orbonne at least 60 times(going back to when it was current) and i havent won the mini yet. Ill keep at it, and eventually it probly pops up in a mogtome event. I hope to have it before then, but i certainly wouldnt skip it because of something stupid like pride.

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Don't even get me started on how many lottery tickets I've bought.

I haven't even gotten a line in bingo. Both in and out of this game.

funny, whenever I run nier most of the dresses end up in the dirt because noone seems to need them anymore.. lol

this reminds me of that iconic Zepla Din rant where it took 90+ runs to get the hairstyle she wanted. There should definitely be a way to obtain the gear with coins IE totems and mounts, as currently Im still hunting for my ivalice ranger legs and these arent trials these raids take like 30 min to clear varying on parties. i say 10 for chest, 7 for legs 5 for boots and Hat 3 for gloves and belt.

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Originally Posted by Mhaeric

The math isn't quite right since there's 3 drops per run so they had 96 chances rather than 32. They're also likely rolling against more the 7 other people.

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I incorporated that. Three chests per run means that three out of 24 people are leaving that raid with a chest, so you have a 1-in-8 chance of being one of those three people in any single run (assuming everyone rolls - your odds can only improve if some are skipping). Therefore 32 runs = 32 1-in-8 chances.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

I incorporated that. Three chests per run means that three out of 24 people are leaving that raid with a chest, so you have a 1-in-8 chance of being one of those three people in any single run (assuming everyone rolls - your odds can only improve if some are skipping). Therefore 32 runs = 32 1-in-8 chances.

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The rolls are independent so they technically can't be lumped together like that. I will definitely grant you that it's reliant on a person who wins deleting their winning coffer before rolling on the next one so that's an unlikely scenario and can be discounted from the probability calculation but it would technically be a (23/24)^3 chance to fail for one run. 7/8 is a good enough approximation assuming all players rolled and didn't delete their coffers.

This way of looking at it is still not the whole picture, however, because it doesn't take into account the competing roll situation where you have to include the chance of your own roll being good enough to win compared to other rolls. Yes, this averages out over time to the above calculation when accounting for everyone's rolls and 1000's of attempts, but we only have a sample size of 32 here so the probability of you rolling high enough to have a reasonable chance to win becomes a significant factor from an individual player perspective. Here's how quickly the chance of winning on a given roll against 23 other players drops off (stolen from a reddit source since I didn't want to actually create a spreadsheet just for this):

https://i.imgur.com/Q6Gs5PG.png

Even if all 3 of your rolls were 90 for example, you'd still have a roughly 78% chance of not winning any of them. (I say roughly because only the first roll would follow that table above since it's against 23 players and the probability would be slightly higher for the second and third rolls against 22 and 21 players.)

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Originally Posted by Mhaeric

Even if all 3 of your rolls were 90 for example, you'd still have a roughly 78% chance of not winning any of them.

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That's ... Pretty sobering.

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Originally Posted by ItMe

That's ... Pretty sobering.

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The good news is that's a worst case scenario where all 24 players are rolling, but yeah the chances of winning are definitely unintuitively lower than expected.

I always felt like you needed like a 95 or higher to be "sure" you'll get something in alliance raid, but it's really less than 10% chance with a 90? I'm not statistician so I believe you, but that seems a bit hard to believe, even with 24 people rolling. There's 89 numbers below 90, so it seems weird that multiple people always seem to roll 90+

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Originally Posted by Stepjam

I always felt like you needed like a 95 or higher to be "sure" you'll get something in alliance raid, but it's really less than 10% chance with a 90? I'm not statistician so I believe you, but that seems a bit hard to believe, even with 24 people rolling. There's 89 numbers below 90, so it seems weird that multiple people always seem to roll 90+

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The thing you have to take into account is that just one of those people needs to roll higher than 90 for you to lose. The chance of at least one roll being 91-99 out of 23 rolls goes up significantly compared to just a single roll being 91-99.

In order to win you every other player would have to roll from 1-89. That chance is (89/99)^23 which is about 8.6% of winning. I'm not sure what happens if two players tie for the highest roll, but that appears to be factored into the calculation from the table in my previous post since they have the chance of winning listed at 8.0% which is presumably from that possibility where someone else rolls a 90 and they're the ones who get it instead of you.

It's similar type of paradox as the birthday paradox where there's a roughly 70% chance that any 2 people out of a random 30 people will share the same birthday. It seems like that be should be a significantly smaller chance since there's 365 possible days and each person is being compared against only 29 other people, but because any pairing can be a match there's more comparisons being made than there are days in a year.

The actual number you roll is no direct guarantee of anything. A higher number is more likely to be above other people's numbers but it means nothing if someone else was similarly lucky.

You could lose the roll with a 98; you could win it with an 80 if everyone else had terrible luck.

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Originally Posted by Mhaeric

The rolls are independent so they technically can't be lumped together like that. I will definitely grant you that it's reliant on a person who wins deleting their winning coffer before rolling on the next one so that's an unlikely scenario and can be discounted from the probability calculation but it would technically be a (23/24)^3 chance to fail for one run. 7/8 is a good enough approximation assuming all players rolled and didn't delete their coffers.

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Thinking this all over... the thing is, you can do all this complex maths about your chances and how three separate rolls is different to one roll with three winners and your chances once you've rolled your number and you're waiting to see what everyone else got... but at the end of the day, 24 people walk into the raid and three come out with a coffer. Therefore you have a 1-in-8 chance that you will be one of them.

Also, on the maths side of things - you said "(23/24)^3" (or about 88%) are your chances of not-winning if everyone can roll on each chest.

But because they can't, the competition for the second one is 22/23 and the third is 21/22... and (23/24)x(22/23)x(21/22)=0.875 exactly.

So. Logic first and the maths backs it up.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

"(23/24)^3" (or about 88%) are your chances of not-winning if everyone can roll on each chest. But because they can't

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You must have missed the part where I explained how it's possible to win all 3 coffers and talked about how that actually plays out in reality. It was in the post with the table in it if you want to take a gander. If you don't, it boils down to me conceding the 7/8 value as being a more realistic one.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

Thinking this all over... the thing is, you can do all this complex maths about your chances and how three separate rolls is different to one roll with three winners and your chances once you've rolled your number and you're waiting to see what everyone else got... but at the end of the day, 24 people walk into the raid and three come out with a coffer. Therefore you have a 1-in-8 chance that you will be one of them.

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Yes, that's the probability of being a winner for a single run if you ignore what the rolls were. That's not being questioned. It does nothing, however, to describe what the probability of rolling poorly over the course of x runs has on the probability of not winning over those x runs. If they only had a handful of rolls in the 80's as their highest rolls, for example, it becomes much less surprising that they didn't win.

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Originally Posted by Mhaeric

You must have missed the part where I explained how it's possible to win all 3 coffers and talked about how that actually plays out in reality. It was in the post with the table in it if you want to take a gander. If you don't, it boils down to me conceding the 7/8 value as being a more realistic one.

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You said (and I quoted) that 7/8 is "a good enough approximation". It's not an approximation, it's the exact output of the calculation of the more realistic scenario and it leads back to the logic: three people in that raid are going to win a chest.

It doesn't matter what the exact rolled numbers were. It doesn't matter what your chances are of winning chest #2 once you have rolled a 93 and you're waiting to find out if anyone got higher. Those momentary chances are going to fluctuate but they don't matter in the end.

And the fact that someone technically can be eligible for all three rolls by deliberately deleting each chest as they win it is irrelevant on an average run. There would have to be someone out to do it and they'd have to be the winner of every roll for it to make even a minor difference.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

You said (and I quoted) that 7/8 is "a good enough approximation". It's not an approximation, it's the exact output of the calculation of the more realistic scenario and it leads back to the logic: three people in that raid are going to win a chest.

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I was referring to 7/8 being a good enough approximation in the context of the (23/24)^3 value being a technically more accurate even though unrealistic value. I can see how I phrased it was ambiguous.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

Those momentary chances are going to fluctuate but they don't matter in the end.

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I'm not sure why you seem to think I'm saying otherwise since I've brought up sample size rendering the roll meaningless in the long term several times.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

And the fact that someone technically can be eligible for all three rolls by deliberately deleting each chest as they win it is irrelevant on an average run. There would have to be someone out to do it and they'd have to be the winner of every roll for it to make even a minor difference.

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Yes, that's what I said.

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Originally Posted by Mhaeric

Yes, that's what I said.

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So why are you basing your maths on that scenario instead of the realistic one where the first two winners are locked out of subsequent rolls, for which the equation leads to exactly 0.875 instead of a rough approximation?

If thats the only scenario you can envision going back, wait until next expansion. Youll probly be able to unsync it with only 8-12 people when your gear gets good enough.

YOU CAN UNSYNCH AND UNDERSIZE ALLIANCE RAIDS!?

They have to be at least one expansion old(like with anything you want to unsync). Further, youre still splitting into 3 parties, so you need a minimum of 3 players. Some mechanics arent doable without decently large groups, so not every raid is equally accessible(you cant have 4 people stand on a pad if you only brought 1 per group). But yeah, you can totally try it out.

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Originally Posted by ItMe

YOU CAN UNSYNCH AND UNDERSIZE ALLIANCE RAIDS!?

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with 1 full party yeah

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Originally Posted by Duskane

with 1 full party yeah

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You need to split them across the three alliance parties though.