Melding success rate

When melding multiple materia into same gears, system will give a success rate.

Don't know how many people has experience like me.....but i really double on the success rate. I've never have actual success rate higher than system provided, but usually got actual success rate lower than told.

I've just do melding, system show success rate between 25% - 30%, but got continuous failed for 10 attempts! The possibility to continuous fail is less than 1% but I am experienced not only once!

For the achievement to meld 5 materia into 1 gear, i actually meld 500+ gears and use up 1000+ materia. I can told that the success rate provided from FFXIV is a shXX! :mad:

Would SE do sometime on the success rate? What I means is that, If you said it is 20% success, than I expect that I will got at least 15 success from 100 attempts. I think it should be reasonable expectation?

Perhaps 20% success does not mean you have a 20% chance of success ^.^:
Perhaps it really means 20% success is 20% of the maximum success rate that you can have.

If the maximum success rate (hidden value) is 80%, and you have 20% success rate, then you really have a 16% success.
If you have a 100% success rate, then you really have a 80% success rate.

Of course, I could be wrong, but it would be interesting to note if anyone had a 100% success rate and fail.

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Originally Posted by Asiaine

Perhaps 20% success does not mean you have a 20% chance of success ^.^:
Perhaps it really means 20% success is 20% of the maximum success rate that you can have.

If the maximum success rate (hidden value) is 80%, and you have 20% success rate, then you really have a 16% success.
If you have a 100% success rate, then you really have a 80% success rate.


Of course, I could be wrong, but it would be interesting to note if anyone had a 100% success rate and fail.

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Good theory, however I'd like to attribute OPs case to bad luck :x

FYI: I went 1/17 on gamblers crown. LS mates of mine went like 1/50, and 1/150+

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Originally Posted by Asiaine

Perhaps 20% success does not mean you have a 20% chance of success ^.^:
Perhaps it really means 20% success is 20% of the maximum success rate that you can have.

If the maximum success rate (hidden value) is 80%, and you have 20% success rate, then you really have a 16% success.
If you have a 100% success rate, then you really have a 80% success rate.

Of course, I could be wrong, but it would be interesting to note if anyone had a 100% success rate and fail.

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If your guest is correct, then it is no point to give us the success rate because we don't know the "hidden value".
It is same that someone tell you: You will be success in 12 x (unknow) %
Any different from not telling any rate? I don't want to thing that SE was paid to do meaningless things....

According to my friend, getting drunk as a skunk increases chance of success by 84.55928298310293281niner88201-alpha%

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Originally Posted by Scarface

Good theory, however I'd like to attribute OPs case to bad luck :x

FYI: I went 1/17 on gamblers crown. LS mates of mine went like 1/50, and 1/150+

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>_<
Yes, bad luck gay like me never success in simple attempt. After 100+ fail for gamblers crown, i am trying to do something like, meld 2 materia-> store -> meld 3rd materia after store 10 x 2 materia gears -> meld 4th materia after store 10 x 3 materia gear......

But I just found today it is really easy to fail continuously for 20-30% success rate.......just make me think of give up... not worse for more gil input........already paid more than 10 million on it.....

You could just buy the items with 4 melds for the easy way out.

just because you have a success rate of 20% does not mean you are guarneteed 1 in 5 to succeed

thats the average basicaly


so while you went 0/10 someone else probly just went 4/10 and therefore, you still have 20%

If you're doing a double meld that has a, say, 20% chance of success, that means that all attempts everyone will make over the course of (in game) moon phases, days, months, and years will average out to be 20%. You may attempt 20 melds and succeed on all of them or none of them.

There is undeniable pretty damn good evidence that says the dates and moonphases have an effect on melding (and had an effect on HQing), so if you notice you fail ten times in a row, stop trying silly~

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Originally Posted by NotApplicable

There is undeniable pretty damn good evidence that says the dates and moonphases have an effect on melding (and had an effect on HQing), so if you notice you fail ten times in a row, stop trying silly~

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Oh? what evidence?

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Originally Posted by WinterSkyblue

If your guest is correct, then it is no point to give us the success rate because we don't know the "hidden value".
It is same that someone tell you: You will be success in 12 x (unknow) %
Any different from not telling any rate? I don't want to thing that SE was paid to do meaningless things....

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Granted it would still be frustrating to not really know what your chances are... but, at least you will know 'you are doing the best you can do'.

If you only get the value to 75%, then you know you have room for improvement.
If you get it to 100%, then you know you've done your best and now it is in the hands of the twelve.

If we had someone who got the value to 100% and failed (more than 1, in case it really was 99.5%), then that would tell us more.

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Originally Posted by NotApplicable

If you're doing a double meld that has a, say, 20% chance of success, that means that all attempts everyone will make over the course of (in game) moon phases, days, months, and years will average out to be 20%. You may attempt 20 melds and succeed on all of them or none of them.

There is undeniable pretty damn good evidence that says the dates and moonphases have an effect on melding (and had an effect on HQing), so if you notice you fail ten times in a row, stop trying silly~

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I used to meld materia only in full moon or near full moon, with at least common support, full set r48 crafting gears, add r4 materia like Str / Dex depending on crafting job. I am all crafting r50 (use 1.5 year to rank up >_<), drink apple juice+1. My r48 crafting sets also meld 2 materia, at least +8 craftmanship / m.craft / control.

I have experience that before 1.21, moon phase have effect on HQ rate. Full moon is less likely to be HQ. But after 1.21, I will make HQ in full moon.
I am pretty sure full moon have higher crafting / melding success rate cause I personally tested it 100+ times. My crafting friends also give similar reply.
For date, I am not that sure, cause my friends also not sense much different. But I am thinking of the god of each month. FFXIV 1st development team said they intent to make god have different effect on different months. Although now they said they will not apply this, may be already some hidden setting on it?

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Originally Posted by Asiaine

Granted it would still be frustrating to not really know what your chances are... but, at least you will know 'you are doing the best you can do'.

If you only get the value to 75%, then you know you have room for improvement.
If you get it to 100%, then you know you've done your best and now it is in the hands of the twelve.

If we had someone who got the value to 100% and failed (more than 1, in case it really was 99.5%), then that would tell us more.

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Sorry I don't understand .......Anything I can do to increase the melding success rate? Once to meld the 2nd materia into a gear, highest success rate must less than 50% (if you meld r1 materia with lowest attribute into r50 gear, HQ will add a few %). No way to improve it (at least for what SE claim and we can see).

I think you are talking on HQ item?

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Originally Posted by WinterSkyblue

Sorry I don't understand .......Anything I can do to increase the melding success rate? Once to meld the 2nd materia into a gear, highest success rate must less than 50% (if you meld r1 materia with lowest attribute into r50 gear, HQ will add a few %). No way to improve it (at least for what SE claim and we can see).

I think you are talking on HQ item?

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Hello,

I think this applies to both situations. I know with crafting it is feasible right now to get it to 100?
I know with melding it is perhaps not possible? But perhaps in time there will be something that does: +10% chance to double meld. Then another +5% chance to double meld. With enough of those we could get it to 100% and then tell.

Sorry, did not mean to imply it can be done now, just that, 'if it could somehow be done' then we might be able to tell ^^;;

Does anyone have any data for moon phases? Or has any been posted? With all the things missing at launch I would think it highly unlikely that such a subtle component as moon phase affecting synthesis made it into the game.

Here's some math for you guys....

With a 20% chance of success, what are the odds that you would fail 5 attempts in a row? 20? 100? 1000?

Let n = the number of attempts at forbidden melding
Let S = The probability of success for a single meld = .2
Let F = The probability of every attempt failing

F(n)=(1-S)^n
F(n)=(1-.2)^n
F(n)=.8^n
F(5)=.8^(5)= .32
F(20)=.8^(20)= .0115
F(100)=.8^(100)= 2.03 x 10^(-10)
F(1000)=.8^(1000)= 1.23 x 10^(-97)

So What does this mean?

There is a 32% that every attempt out of 5 attempts will fail. That is almost a one in three chance. Out of 20 attempts to meld, there is a 1% chance that ever single one of them will fail. You have a better chance of winning the lottery 4 times in a row than you do of failing 1000 attempts in a row though.

I hope this helps give people perspective.

Dem college statistics says nope.

luck = luck. people hit mega millions lottery all the time even though they have a greater chance of getting hit by lightning twice in a row.

You could compare melding to hqing in crafting. As a level 30 blacksmith during new moon I hq'd cobalt ingots (the 3x ingot synth) 5 times in a row. Now for a level 50 this might not be so impressive. But for a level 30? The recipe is 10 levels higher then me And I never had better then 30% chance to HQ. 3 of the synths had a less then 20% chance to hq, one had 11% and the other that i got to 30% i nailed the hq on double down. now the odds of that happening are very slim give the low percentage chance of hq. (Btw i failed to mention i was using all hq mats). the new moon was affecting my hq chance.

I think what happens with these "bonuses" is the you have x% chance to HQ (or in melding an x% chance to meld) this is visible. Now to determine % chance lets say we RNG 0-100. with a (for yucks sake) 20% chance to hq/meld you would need a 81-100. now lets say these "bonuses" are actually a post RNG modifier...for example full moon adds 10 to your RNG... so now even though you have 20% chance to succeed you actually have a 30% chance (hidden) so you roll say 79(fail by itself) then it adds 10 and checks for success... 79+10=89=success. if you rolled 39, then 39+10=49=fail.

I also believe there may be modifiers that would hurt as well. The different materia are colored differently this could have to do with elemental/astral/umbral alignment. extensive testing with melding in different weather conditions, moon phases (new vs. full) and tying in day/hour elements may all play a part in modifying your true chance at success.


this is of course all speculation but at least my theory on how hidden modifiers affect displayed % chance is very likely.

or just consider it a % and solely that, 20% is 20%
The HQ % is exactly what % you have to HQ, same as mend, the exact % you have to meld it.

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Originally Posted by Scarface

Good theory, however I'd like to attribute OPs case to bad luck :x

FYI: I went 1/17 on gamblers crown. LS mates of mine went like 1/50, and 1/150+

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Correct! Its all basic probability theory.

Middle school teaches us to perceive percentages as reduced fractions. Therefore we look at 20% as 1/5, 50% as 1/2, and 33% as roughly 1/3. Of course, we're not completely naive so we tend to expand these fractions up to the denominator of 100. Psychologically, we expect that 100 attempts max will give us the success we are looking for. In this way, 20% is 20/100, 40% is 40/100, and 85% is 85/100. We expect out of 100 attempts max, we should at least get something even if the percentage chance is only 1% (or 1/100).

The fact of the matter is that this is not true. Probability (ie the percentage) is not necessarily a function of 100 attempts. We think of it this way because of education, but probability is literally infinite. You might see 3% over 5 attempts, 10 attempts, 100 attempts, or 10,000 attempts. After all, 3% of 10,000 is 300. You may not see the first of that 300 til the 500 mark, the 1000 mark, or maybe even the 9000 mark. Because of this infinite nature of probability, it is both random and consistent. It is random in that every attempt has an equal chance of succeeding or failing. Try 1 time, or 1000 times...every individual attempt will always give you an 3% chance of success (or whatever the probability is). It is consistent in that, despite these random outcomes, over the long run the 3% probability rate will prove true.

When you do anything that involves probability, you have to understand this and accept it. Even if your success rate was 99%, you could still fail every time for the next 100 attempts. Any chance of failure means that failure is an equal possibility on any inidividual attempt you make. Likely? No. But it is a possibility. Always. If you are gonna embark on this endeavor, the secret is to treat every attempt as a coin toss. People mistakenly believe that every attempt they make raises their chance of success, and this is where they get frustrated. If I believe in the 1/5, or 20/100, by attempt number 4 I'm expecting success, and by attempt 80 I am positive I will succeed very very soon. Unfortunately, probability does not work this way. Every attempt is purely individual and entirely random. Attempt 2 wont have a higher chance of success than attempt 1, and attempt 100 doesn't bring you any closer than attempt 5.

Once you accept this, it wont bother you. Treat every attempt as independent and random, like hitting the restart button. This means to stop counting your attempts, because the number of attempts does not make a difference, nor does it help you. Number of attempts is irrelevant. Attempt 1000 is no different in probability than attempt 1. Stop counting. Every attempt is an independent random outcome. Despite this, you have to trust that as long as you keep trying, you will eventually succeed because probability is also consistent. You dont know *when* this success will start, but you know that it will. In other words, every attempt has a chance of success, and because of that, one attempt will succeed as long as you don't quit.

I know it seems contradictory, but this is the paradox of probabilities as I have read it: random outcome, consistent results. In case any of you are curious, this actually all came from a book on investment psychology. But it applies here, as well as to anything that seems to have a "gambling" nature about it.

I'll add a bit in addition to this. Considering that SE would not want the environment to affect the crafting rate that much, if it is there, having a group of people, who are not logging their data, and are less that 1000people, confirm that moon phase affects crafting, does not provide sufficient evidence that moon phase and other environmental effects affect crafting rates.

Humans have inherent logical fallacies, which is why all scientific correlations are done using numbers. Using only flawed anecdotal evidence, you can end up with the situation of rain dances (which is exactly why rain dances occured). We now know that rain is a product of shifting atmospheric temperatures causing condensation, but ancient tribes used human observation to come to the flawed conclusion that rain came due to their tribal dances.

Thus, crafting may be affected by the weather and moon, but there is no way to confirm that without the effort of ALOT of people, like more than your linkshell, and even then there is a chance to be wrong.

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Originally Posted by Aldarin

Using only flawed anecdotal evidence, you can end up with the situation of rain dances (which is exactly why rain dances occured). We now know that rain is a product of shifting atmospheric temperatures causing condensation, but ancient tribes used human observation to come to the flawed conclusion that rain came due to their tribal dances.

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TIL

/10char