Something needs to be done about Alex Normal looting system.

As the title says, right now the way Alex normal loot works is you have no lockout for the week nor for the run and as such the chances of you getting any item in any given run if everyone rolls for everything is (edit: actually / said 1/8 before /facepalm) ~2/5 (ie the expected return in items per 5 runs is 2..) which is worse than what we had before the lockout was removed (edit: this is still true).


The solution is simple and should've come naturally when they removed the lockout.. Just make a run "lockout" in that each person is not allowed to win more than one roll per run (maybe remove this if full group queued or if loot master is on), it's incredibly frustrating to see people get multiple items when most get nothing and looking at the low chances of getting anything is pretty discouraging. (edit: still stand by this)

(edit: not as urgent as i thought)

For what it's worth i think this should be implemented into 24man raids when they no longer have a weekly lockout as well.

edit: So i messed up the maths in the original unedited post pretty bad (ugh), guess that's what happens when you do math when you're tired.
Zova got it right in his reply further in the thread so yeah. Anyway while not nearly as urgent as my bad-thoughtless math showed it to be, i still see no reason for it not to be improved since the gear is outdated and being able to get something every 2 runs is still better than 3 for outdated content in my opinion.. But yeah, i recognize my mistake and it wasn't as big an issue as i was making it to be.

It's still pretty idiotic to dismiss something where someone is trying to show an issue and giving a solution by saying "LOL QQ MORE" so, fridge (and all you genius white knights who upvoted him) you're still in the wrong for having that attitude cause it's stuff like that make the devs think they can just shove retarded grinds down our mouth, and this doesn't change just because my numbers were off, as you clearly didn't even see the mistake yourself.

Boo hoo why didn't RNGesus smile upon me today

There are 4 items per run. 4/8. You have 50% chance to win an item every run... if you run it enough times :P (Also sometimes players need only what they really need, which increases the chance to win an item)

But I agree that if you need something like the shaft, where everyone is doing A4 to get shafts, it can be pain to farm it. The best way to fix your problem is to create a PF party.

In my opinion Ex like token system would be better... but SE.

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Originally Posted by Archaell

There are 4 items per run. 4/8. You have 50% chance to win an item every run... if you run it enough times :P (Also sometimes players need only what they really need, which increases the chance to win an item)

But I agree that if you need something like the shaft, where everyone is doing A4 to get shafts, it can be pain to farm it. The best way to fix your problem is to create a PF party.

In my opinion Ex like token system would be better... but SE.

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50%? na it's a lot lower then that now that 1 person could potential acquire all 4 items in 1 go, if you gonna do % I'd say more along the lines of 12.5%.

but totally agree with OP it's got worse now that the loot res was removed.

I agree the current design is horrible (as it was on release). I would prefer the actual items to drop than these tokens.

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Originally Posted by Archaell

There are 4 items per run. 4/8. You have 50% chance to win an item every run... if you run it enough times :P (Also sometimes players need only what they really need, which increases the chance to win an item)

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Each item doesn't effect the chances of winning the next item. Essentially there are a much larger number of possibilities of receiving an item. So yes, there are increased variables in which you'll receive a loot drop, but there are exponentially increase variables in which you don't. So the value is still around 1 in 8 (I believe, I haven't done the math).

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Originally Posted by Archaell

But I agree that if you need something like the shaft, where everyone is doing A4 to get shafts, it can be pain to farm it. The best way to fix your problem is to create a PF party.

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I kind of agree with this, but even that is stupid. To get a full 8 person party all 4 shafts will take you 32 runs.

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Originally Posted by Archaell

In my opinion Ex like token system would be better... but SE.

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100% agree. The loot should just drop with everyone receiving a token, so that if they don't receive their item in X runs they can purchase it. Move all equipment slots to 10 items needed. Give 1 bolt, 1 pedal in A1, 1 lens, 1 chain in A2, 1 crank, 1 spring in A3 and 1 shaft in A4 in addition to 2 random equipment items from the loot list.



I spent 15 hours doing Alex normal (floors 1 and 4) this weekend, and I got 3 bolts. Fun times.

A new system in general might be nice.

System 1, "Everybody gets one": Every player gets 1 successful "Need" roll per day, shared among all instances with this rule. Greeds are unlimited.

System 2, "Priorities": Greeding or passing on items in an instance stocks "priority points" (pass stocks far more than greed, points only kept in single instance). These points are added to your next need roll.

In the alex example, since there is 1 loot of 4 items per run, your best odds would be to pass 3 of them then need the last one getting a 3x pass bonus and giving you superior (but not guaranteed, especially if someone else wants it just as badly) odds of getting the thing you want.

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Originally Posted by Kaurie

I agree the current design is horrible (as it was on release). I would prefer the actual items to drop than these tokens.



Each item doesn't effect the chances of winning the next item. Essentially there are a much larger number of possibilities of receiving an item. So yes, there are increased variables in which you'll receive a loot drop, but there are exponentially increase variables in which you don't. So the value is still around 1 in 8 (I believe, I haven't done the math).

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That's why I said if you do it enough times. Of course in the smaller sample size it is highly improbable to get close to 50% ^.^

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Originally Posted by Archaell

That's why I said if you do it enough times. Of course in the smaller sample size it is highly improbable to get close to 50% ^.^

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but running it more doesn't increase your chances of getting it on a given run, it simply increases your chances of getting it period.

It's been awhile since I've done stats, probability etc - so I need some help with this, as it doesn't seem quite right. Here is what I haev so far.

Say w, x, y and z dropped. You have the following loot possibilities:
wzxy, w, wx, wxy, wyz, wy, wxz, x, xy, xyz, xz, y, yz, z = 14 possible scenarios of receiving an item.

Then there are 8 possible outcomes for each item (1 of 8 people could get each of x, y, z and w), so there are 8 * 8 * 8 * 8 = 4096 possible outcomes.

so your chances of winning is 14 in 4096. However, this seems particularly low (much lower than I'd expect at 1 in 8). Please, tear apart my math and show me what I did wrong.

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Originally Posted by Kaurie

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If we look at one single run then ok. It was a joke, as I was looking at RNG from the bigger picture instead of the individual experience.

I am not good with math, but we should not get bellow 1/8 for each item, so rolling for 4 should improve the probability from 12.5%.

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Originally Posted by Kaurie

Please, tear apart my math and show me what I did wrong.

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Each loot roll is independent of all others. Combining the probabilities as you did was your mistake for determining a roll outcome.
A player has a 1 / (8 - passers) chance of winning a loot role.

Now, if you want to determine the probabilities of winning specific combination of rolls (e.g. wyz) your math is fine.

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Originally Posted by Kaurie

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I don't have the time to do the math right now but I can at least point out the flaw in your methodology that is leading to your abnormally low numbers. The problem is that you are only considering getting 1 drop per run as a single combination.

For instance, if I were to receive a single item as a drop, we would need to consider all the possible combinations that this can occur in. Looking at the instance in which I win the first drop but lose all the other drops, then we need to consider all possibilities for the last 3 drops in which I do not win.

The number of possible combinations for this outcome of Win|Lose|Lose|Lose is:

N = 1*7*7*7 = 343

It is 7 per roll for the last three since there are 7 possible winners for each of the three remaining drops, since I have stipulated that I only win one roll, I don't count myself. Then the odds I win one drop, and that drop is the first drop is:

Odds = 343/4096 = .08 or 8%.

Remember that there are actually 4 possibilities of one win and three losses, so my real odds of winning 1 item is closer to 30%. Adding in the possibility of winning more than one increases these odds even further.

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Originally Posted by ChameleonMS

Each loot roll is independent of all others. Combining the probabilities as you did was your mistake for determining a roll outcome.
A player has a 1 / (8 - passers) chance of winning a loot role.

Now, if you want to determine the probabilities of winning specific combination of rolls (e.g. wyz) your math is fine.

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I appreciate the feedback. I understand that each roll is independent of all others, but that shouldn't negate that there are 4092 different possible outcomes, right? I feel the part that is incorrect must be the possible outcomes in which you receive loot (I counted 14 total, but maybe I was wrong)?

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Originally Posted by Zova

snip

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Great, thanks! I figured it was something along those lines.

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Originally Posted by FridgePanic

Boo hoo why didn't RNGesus smile upon me today

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Wow, really?!
So first, you reduce my proposal and arguments to QQing, when it's your post that absolutely no substance. Basically you are non-contributing to the discussion, why even post?

Second , yeah i'm being so unreasonable, such fun to be had in running something an obscene amount of times for 1 piece of gear, so fun right?
Why don't we just roll back the measure to reduce this absurdity in other encounters and make it so primals dont drop tokens or so that you don't get tokens on your Alex Savage clear anymore either? I mean it was so much better before right? They were so silly to change it... ( /s)

(edit: sniped out lots of bad math, updated OP to reflect correct info, kept the above bits as the sentiment still stands as dismissing something as "It's just RNG, lols" is pretty irritating)

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Originally Posted by Pibz

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Expected number of runs for the chest piece would be still 32, as they drop only in A4 and why would you farm the harder thing, if you don't want the chest piece? Also if you could get only one item, players would be rolling for the shafts first.

Btw. There are also double drops, which improves the odds.

http://i.imgur.com/9FmvKnw.png

I have nothing to contribute except that one time I had someone win three items in a run, and the fourth (accessory token) went to someone that only rolled a 50. So yes, please one item per run seems more than fair. I doubt very many tokens will be wasted. I always hit greed on the ones I don't need right away, because collecting for alts or potential GC Seal turn-ins later.

From what I understand of the loot system, there are four drops, and all 8 players can roll on any item. This means that for a single run you have the following odds of obtaining at least one item, provided that you, and every other person roll on every item.

P(Get at least one item) = 1 - P(Get No Items)
P(Get at least one item) = 1 - (7/8)^4
P(Get at least one item) = 1 - .5861
P(Get at least one item) = .4139

So by changing the system you have only increased your odds of obtaining any item in a run by approximately 9%.

Since, the math shown by both of us only applies to receiving any item and I don't really know the specifics of the system, I can't comment on how much it would speed up you obtaining that one drop you need for whatever piece it is you want.

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Originally Posted by Zova

So by changing the system you have only increased your odds of obtaining any item in a run by approximately 9%.

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You are indeed correct, as i changed the OP to reflect, it was just bad math (or none at all rather, i had it stuck in my head it was 1/8 for some reason).

But yeah, it's not nearly as big an issue as it would've been if the chances of any drop would be 1/8 (again /facepalm). Though in my opinion it does make it more frustrating to see someone get multiple rolls when you get nothing and there's no real reason not to up the chances on outdated content. But yeah you are absolutely right, thanks for dropping by and correcting it, i probably wouldn't have given it a second though and actually have done the math without it.

Either way, something should be done to smooth out the number of runs required to get say a full set, but im not gonna push as i already lost some credibility with all the bad numbers.

For what it's worth it doesn't make much difference to me i don't really have that many alts i care to gear and my mains don't really need the tomes anymore, it was more about other people who actually need it (ie new players for example) and those people not getting frustrated by it, but oh well.

With the help of a few of the responses (mainly by Zova) to my stats (thank you, was having a mind blank from my old stats courses), I've put together an odds table.

Odds of not getting an item 2401 in 4096 58.62%
7 7 7 7 =2401

Odds of getting 1 item 1372 in 4096 33.50%
7 7 7 1 =343
7 7 1 7 =343
7 1 7 7 =343
1 7 7 7 =343

Odds of getting 2 items 294 in 4096 7.18%
7 7 1 1 =49
7 1 7 1 =49
1 7 7 1 =49
7 1 1 7 =49
1 7 1 7 =49
1 1 7 7 =49

Odds of getting 3 items 28 in 4096 0.68%
1 1 1 7 =7
1 1 7 1 =7
1 7 1 1 =7
7 1 1 1 =7

Odds of getting 4 items 1 in 4096 0.02%
1 1 1 1 =1

Odds of getting a specific item 343 in 4096 8.37%
Odds of getting any 1 or more items 1695 in 4096 41.38%

I'd like to apologize for challenging the thought of 50%, it's actually quite accurate. I was definitely in the mindset of odds of getting a specific item after having spent 15 hours trying to get bolts and shafts :\

I find it amusing that people rather correct math issues than to actually talk about the loot system and try to give better solutions (on the hope that maybe a dev. will see this topic and promote some changes in a near future?).

*ahen*

Giving my own opinion now. The "one item per run" is interesting (at least half of the people in the run will get >something<), but I thought on something that follows the Savage example to eliminate the RNG completely. Give a "Gordian Prototype's Page", or however you want to name it, for each clear we have on each individual floor, and allow us to exchange some of those pages for bolts, chains, pedals, you name it. That will eliminate a bit of the RNG of those places while securing that people will have to run them a sufficient amount of times for them to not be simply "given" to the players. And, of course, if RNG is on your favour, you will be able to reduce the time you spent there.

The reason for the different pages instead of a single token is to make sure that everybody runs all the floors, instead of spamming the same floor over and over again for easy tokens.

I would go for something like, but things could always be rearranged:
A1 pages: Bolts and Chains
A2 pages: Pedals and Lens
A3 pages: Cranks and Springs
A4 pages: Springs and Shafts

The only issue I see with this method is a inventory one. But inventory is ALWAYS a problem, so, what else can we do? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Originally Posted by Koujiro

I find it amusing that people rather correct math issues than to actually talk about the loot system and try to give better solutions (on the hope that maybe a dev. will see this topic and promote some changes in a near future?).

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I specifically asked for help with my math. Further, the math is to highlight what the current problem is. I also suggested fixes in my original post. Finally, someone correcting math is on topic, while your statement above is nothing but dismissive.

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Originally Posted by Koujiro

Giving my own opinion now. The "one item per run" is interesting (at least half of the people in the run will get >something<), but I thought on something that follows the Savage example to eliminate the RNG completely. Give a "Gordian Prototype's Page", or however you want to name it, for each clear we have on each individual floor, and allow us to exchange some of those pages for bolts, chains, pedals, you name it. That will eliminate a bit of the RNG of those places while securing that people will have to run them a sufficient amount of times for them to not be simply "given" to the players. And, of course, if RNG is on your favour, you will be able to reduce the time you spent there.

The reason for the different pages instead of a single token is to make sure that everybody runs all the floors, instead of spamming the same floor over and over again for easy tokens.

The only issue I see with this method is a inventory one. But inventory is ALWAYS a problem, so, what else can we do? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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This is similar to my earlier thoughts. I think that the actual items should drop, with everyone receiving some sort of currency to purchase if their items do not drop. Similar to both Alex Savage and EX Primals loot systems. In my opinion, the current Alex Normal loot system is the worst loot system in the game by far (and has been since release).

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Originally Posted by Kaurie

This is similar to my earlier thoughts. I think that the actual items should drop, with everyone receiving some sort of currency to purchase if their items do not drop. Similar to both Alex Savage and EX Primals loot systems. In my opinion, the current Alex Normal loot system is the worst loot system in the game by far (and has been since release).

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Nah, the worst loot system has always been mini-boss X drops item Y. Player, abandons duty after mini-boss X. It is much worse in (but not limited too) 4 man content; consider replacement times when the leaving player is Tank or Healer. This behaviour was also rampant in CT, ST, WoD.

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Originally Posted by ChameleonMS

Nah, the worst loot system has always been mini-boss X drops item Y. Player, abandons duty after mini-boss X. It is much worse in (but not limited too) 4 man content; consider replacement times when the leaving player is Tank or Healer. This behaviour was also rampant in CT, ST, WoD.

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I 100% disagree, but these are merely our opinions I suppose.

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Originally Posted by ChameleonMS

Nah, the worst loot system has always been mini-boss X drops item Y. Player, abandons duty after mini-boss X. It is much worse in (but not limited too) 4 man content; consider replacement times when the leaving player is Tank or Healer. This behaviour was also rampant in CT, ST, WoD.

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My datacenter must be a lot nicer because while I didn't do CT while it was current I've only had 1 person quit VA after getting gear. They were also the same one that complained constantly, died and told everybody to "git gud" so everyone was glad they left anyway. I get more people rage quitting in A4 than anything, also the loot system does suck mainly because it requires way too many items to turn in for gear for something that is RNG based. I stopped running it while it still would have helped my gearing up because my loot scores were so bad for the 4+ items. Either stick with a token system or a RNG loot system, having both is just bad and discouraging.

Here's what they're doing about the Alexander loot system.

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[3.0] Players can now obtain the following items upon completing Alexander: Gordias, areas one through four:
Precision Gordian Bolt / Precision Gordian Lens / Precision Gordian Spring / Precision Gordian Shaft

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Note how it only lists bolt, lens, spring, and shaft. The only major content being implemented in this patch besides some story stuff is the Relic weapons, and since there are tokens missing, they could not possible be for any loot system revisions.

You asked for Alexander loot fixes? They gave you other reasons to infinitely grind Alexander.

From the list it would be accessoires, head, legs and body for a direct trade in or whatelse so you have to grind for hands, feet and belt afterall :D

disable the need roll for items or tokens which the current job of this player already has received in the inventory / retainer / armory chest; so he can't roll on the shafts in A4 nm when he already got the chest with the current job he's already in.

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Originally Posted by Benjo

disable the need roll for items or tokens which the current job of this player already has received in the inventory / retainer / armory chest; so he can't roll on the shafts in A4 nm when he already got the chest with the current job he's already in.

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That sounds like a crazy weird amount of work when they could just add 1 drop per run rule.

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Originally Posted by Pence

That sounds like a crazy weird amount of work when they could just add 1 drop per run rule.

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tbh there is already a search funtion in the game which scans your inventory / retainers / armory chest in order to make this feature going to work it's just needs to being tied to a lockout system which filters items already claimed by the tokens of the respective job.

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Originally Posted by Benjo

tbh there is already a search funtion in the game which scans your inventory / retainers / armory chest in order to make this feature going to work it's just needs to being tied to a lockout system which filters items already claimed by the tokens of the respective job.

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That would just do more harm than good.

For example many players use their best geared jobs to farm these items for alts - as it is more effective. If you would force them to play their worse geared jobs it would increase the clear times and also the risk of failure.

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Originally Posted by Archaell

If you would force them to play their worse geared jobs it would increase the clear times and also the risk of failure.

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B-b-but...I thought these bosses were so faceroll easy that you can even do them with AFK peeps!

I feel I've been lied to now :<

In my experience most people leave before chests are even open cause they just there for relics and don't care about NM token drops giving you a much higher chance at getting stuff.

They really should not have restricted the shafts so much, since you need four of them yet unlike springs they only drop from one raid and often only one shaft appears in loot box.

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Originally Posted by Zohar_Lahar

They really should not have restricted the shafts so much, since you need four of them yet unlike springs they only drop from one raid and often only one shaft appears in loot box.

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Someone in my Free Company told me how bad the situation was so I upgraded that slot via Lore as soon as I could.